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The protest is not ripe: this little violent

Протест не дозрел: настоящих буйных мало

The only exit to the streets of Russian cities millions of disgruntled citizens are able to accelerate “transit authority”.

Judging by the responses, the meeting on 10 August in Moscow gave rise among some opposition-minded observers feeling close to euphoria. All vying to ascertain the unusually high activity of Muscovites left on the action, and trying to look down your nose at the capital’s protests are some new trends. One colleague even suggested in the social network, which is now, perhaps, the transit of Russian power will take place in 2024-m, and in 2020…

Note that some grounds for optimism do exist. First, the meeting on 10 August, however, the largest mass action since the March held in February 2015 in memory of the killed near the walls of the Kremlin Boris Nemtsov. Before this mass was observed only during the “Bolotnaya” protests in Moscow in 2011-2012.

Second, almost 50 thousand people took to the streets of Moscow in a situation when neither the season (summer, holidays, villas), nor weather (chilly and continuous rain) the public shares were not contributed. In other words, we can assume that if this past Saturday was warm and Sunny, and the window was the month of may, the rally could collect 100 thousand participants. This assumption is indirectly confirmed by the fact that under the petition demanding to close the criminal case against the members of another demonstration held on 27 July (another theme of the campaign 10th of August) — signed more than 125 thousand people.

And finally, the third and the main factor, which had not worked on the mass of the Saturday of the event in the capital — maloznakomoy (if not worthless) his main reason. Elections to the Moscow city Duma — is not exactly something that excites even the politically active minority in Moscow, in fact, given the Advisory status of this body. Just enough to remind you that in the last elections to the Moscow city Duma in 2014, the turnout was only 21% of the payroll.

And now, despite these lower activity factors, on the streets of Moscow on 10 August reached almost 50 thousand people. It seems like there is reason to be euphoric ideological opponents of the authorities. However, this rush is not necessary. Hope that in the foreseeable future “heavy chains will fall…”, is premature. While there is only a “high aspiration of the thoughts”…

Let us not deceive ourselves. Thrones not staggered. The government is not going to sprinkle ashes on his head and consider the options of going on “the deserved rest”. She learned to live with the protests. The head of the government Dmitry Medvedev the day after a mass rally in Moscow was published in his account on the social network touching video with a dog given to him by President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. And President Vladimir Putin in day of protests in Moscow defiantly been on a motorcycle in the Crimea.

The Russian government thus seems to be saying to the opposition: “you Want to protest? No problem! It’s a free country! Give one, in the allotted time, surrounded by metal railings place, under the watchful eye of tens of thousands of employees of Regardie protest to your health in the framework written by me the law.” In this sense, the protests yet in some way, even in the hands of the Kremlin. Spiteful critics, both outside and inside the country, you can always poke them in the nose: “You say we have a dictatorship and authoritarianism? No! Wanted the opposition pomitingovat — please! No it is not forbidden. What is a dictatorship?!”

Such arguments, of course, are based on a simplified representation of dictatorial and authoritarian regimes of the 20th century, formed the Soviet (and not only) propaganda. In reality, these regimes were much more similar to the current Russian than it seems to those who know about them in popular art and documentary films. This propaganda (both Soviet, incidentally, American), for example, talking about Germany 30-40 years of XX century, reported that in 1940 in German-occupied Paris hosted a mass demonstration of French students, directed against this occupation. And nothing. The Germans, it was allowed. None of the students did not disperse…

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In Germany, up to 1943, open out the newspaper Frankfurter Zeitung, which the Emperor was allowed a certain rebelliousness against the regime. And even in 1944, shortly before its fall, when the Nazis really went to the dressing in the “final solution of the Jewish question” in Berlin was held, again, permitted by the authorities demonstration of German women, men-Jews whom were sent to concentration camps. And also no one is dispersed…

But back in our time and in our country. Mass action on August 10, held in the Russian capital has clearly demonstrated something important. Taking to the streets of Moscow at the peak of holiday season, in the rain 50 thousand people, of course, only partly due to the rejection of the opposition candidates to participate in elections to the Moscow city Duma and the requirements of the release of the detainees in a similar action on July 27.

The main causes of the mass Saturday of the rally — in the General irritation of the ruling regime. This irritation, in turn, is caused by the continuous decline in real living standards in the country, the endless lies of the officials that has swallowed society so innocently as before. And the lack of prospects for young people and middle aged people, and the disappearance of the middle class. These factors are superimposed on one another, adding a layer of people, increasingly critical of the current government. However, they led to the acceleration of the notorious transit authorities, Russia has a lot of things to happen.

First, the protest, as in 2011-2012, still United very superficial, insignificant reason. In this case, the reason — not even the violations in the parliamentary elections eight years ago, but only a rejection of the opposition candidates in legislative elections just one, albeit very important, region. Other common purposes like, for example, a change of regime, system, protesters generally do not put. That is why the regime is now so calm…

Secondly, the current protest is not the kernel, and could share the common goals set.

Third, the Russian protest to the government finally started to take it seriously, still don’t have enough of this mass. Because 50 thousand in Moscow is a lot, if you compare with the rest of Russia. In other cities, including, and a 5-million St. Petersburg at such meetings comes even at times, but with much less people. Therefore, such shares continue to be a purely Metropolitan phenomenon.

Meanwhile, the world practice shows that today the thrones start to wobble when on the streets there are not dozens, but hundreds of thousands and millions of citizens. So it was, say, during the “Arab spring” in Egypt, where Tahrir square in Cairo came out to 1 million people. Or about 500 thousand, as it was on the Maidan in 2013-2014.

In comparison with these examples 50 thousand participants of the opposition rally in the 12-million Moscow is negligible. Especially when you consider that, according to opinion polls, in the capital not less than 14% of the protest electorate. If all of these people have not come even on the allowed actions, then they have still not boiling…

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In the fourth, all the same the world practice shows that protest has a chance of success only when it is radicalized is real. Now all the talk about the fact that this is already happening, is nothing more than wishful thinking. The current Russian protest, as in its aims, and the means resorted to by the opposition, still is exclusively peaceful, and even the law-abiding nature. Relatively speaking, tires no burns and police do not beat. The police on the protesters drawn, but resistance to its action on their side. I’m not the one to call for such resistance. Just stating a fact…

And finally, the fifth factor impeding the acceleration of “transition of power” in Russia is the government itself. Blunders in relation to the opposition inside the country it has not yet been made. Putin continues to effectively use work flawlessly and method of carrot and stick. In this regard, it cannot be excluded that in the near future, after the necessary pause, he once again will play in good king and will be asked to allow the election of the offended opposition candidates. Fortunately, most of them during the vote will still work. But if a couple of them and find yourself in the Moscow city Duma, the weather, they will not make the majority in the Metropolitan Parliament will still be the party in power — it was on the cards to seek.

However, the denial of permission for new protests planned by the opposition in Moscow on August 17, could be the first and very serious mistake of the authorities, given naxalnosti social atmosphere and the increasing discontent of Russian politics, “party and government”. If the failure is final, then we can say that the peaceful nature of all held to this day in Russia, protests, non-violent methods of resisting the onslaught of the rough state, which until then were used by demonstrators, has lulled the attention of the authorities. Apparently, all this has spawned from its representatives the confidence that it always will be. The authorities would do well to remember that Russia, in the end, not India, and followers of Gandhi, we have a little…

Of course, we understand that in relation to opposition-minded citizens, Putin has not yet used a quarter of the opportunities that are at its disposal. Athletes-aunts, Asgardia with its “special means”, firing on demonstrators with rubber bullets — all in his Arsenal.

Let us not forget the political means. From the vaults of power in the light of God can once again be removed and the internal and external enemies. For example, the attention of the citizens can once again try to divert some “brilliant” foreign policy adventure. So it cannot be excluded that on TV, we will again begin to talk about the violation of the rights of Russian in any country near or far afield. Well, of course, grateful for it speaks in the hearts of compatriots subject in large numbers of migrants to Russia — without them?

In other words, the Arsenal of power and propaganda funds of the Russian authorities to suppress protest and/or transfer of the citizens ‘ attention from domestic political and economic problems on the outside are still wide and diverse.

However, the main problems of the Russian protest in the other — lack of common goals and critical of those citizens who are not will scare not only administrative arrests, and rubber bullets. And not only rubber… Until a significant number of citizens, the powers that be in Russia, can continue safely post on social networks the dogs and ride bikes…

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