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The country is on the verge of great change.”Large-scale political crisis in Russia is inevitable”.

Страна на пороге больших перемен.«Масштабный политический кризис в России неизбежен».

Professor Valery Solovey

“From my point of view, large-scale, drastic political crisis in Russia is inevitable. Perhaps it has already begun. What are the symptoms? The first is a qualitative change in the mass consciousness, the second — the destruction of propaganda, the third is a crisis of personal leadership of Putin, the fourth — the crisis of governability at all levels, in all sectors of public and municipal services. And the fifth attempt of the transit system in a turbulent situation.” Thus, in his lecture at the Yeltsin Center, described the current political dynamics of the well-known political analyst, Professor of MGIMO Valery Solovey.

Unlike many of his colleagues, Valery optimistic: he believes that in 10-15 years we will not recognize its prettier country. However, one inevitable condition. We offer to your attention the main contents of the statement made by Valery Solovey. At the end of the text posted a video of the lecture.

“A significant part of society catches up with the feeling that the wait is pointless”

From the point of view of power, the safe people — the poor, those who live in a situation of stagnant poverty, by saying “did not fare well — there is nothing to start.” Such in Russia is not less than a third of the population. Since nothing they have not seen, against the government to protest will not.

Potentially explosive those who are in the “zero” years began to live better, a new middle class, mostly residents of large cities. How has the crisis affected this category? Since 2003 all goes well, revenues are growing, changing strategies: you plan for yourself a good life, buy an apartment in the mortgage or building a country house, expect quality education for their children and for themselves — quality health care. Yes, you don’t like corruption, lack of competition and the fact that in power are the same people, but you argue rationally but my income grow, before me new horizons…

And in 2014, everything begins to crumble. In 2014 you perceive this as an accident, a fatal mistake, but in 2016 it becomes obvious that it is in earnest, and in 2018, when reassigning the government of Medvedev, it is clear that it not only seriously, but also for a long time, maybe forever.

What happens to you with your mind? Suddenly you see that all your life plans, strategies, and most importantly the future of your children and your grandchildren to go downhill. If yesterday you were the new middle class, now you are the new Russian poor, and in the future will become the new Russian poor. Forty percent of the population of Russia take microloans for the purchase of food, are working people who can’t eat, but the danger is not they, but those who have tasted of a better life who have been a revolution of expectations, and then what they hoped, expected, went downhill.

You live with this feeling and understand and what sense to take? We have to think about something else. One strategy is to leave the country. The second traditional Russian adaptation — “hide in the burrow”, to survive. The twentieth century has not passed for nothing: we like animals, we feel that it will be worse and what to do to save money, resources, power. Therefore, even those who have saved income, are spending less. Third strategy: what to tolerate, what I will benefit from patience?

And now, it seems (this is my feeling, based on sociology) that a significant part of society catches up with the feeling that the wait is pointless. In this respect, very important was 2018, I call it the year of breaking the mass consciousness, transition to a qualitatively new state.

“Crisis propaganda that it is irrelevant to the real issues”

About propaganda. In the Russian Federation, propaganda is one of the best in the world for efficiency, but it has become to step on their own rake. The main topics on our television — non-brotherly Ukraine, the crisis in Europe, the populists are striving for power, another scandal in the United States. Russia — well if place on the sixth. But we live in Russia, and we are concerned not Syria, Venezuela is not difficult fate of trump. In sociology, we are primarily concerned about low incomes, unemployment, lack of quality health care and education. But we don’t see this discussed in the talk show.

Crisis propaganda that it is irrelevant to the real problems of real people living in real Russia. Therefore, more and more people are leaving the social network. On the influence of the social network is still not stronger than propaganda, but comparable in the number of people they include, and most importantly — in the degree of trust: social networks are trusted more than propaganda.

The government looks at this and makes a natural conclusion: if it is an alternative system of informing, it must be brought under control. If you can’t win — head. Soon we will see, as in all propaganda media, the law on independent Runet will be called the “law of the safe Internet”.

A year ago, we heard this (lock you’ll ever need — approx. ed.) is impossible, can’t be. No, it is technically possible. By 2021 (for elections to the state Duma — approx. ed.) enormous financial costs and social losses, everything will be ready.

But there is one hitch. Those who gave the nod to such a restrictive strategy are computers and not use social networks because, they argue, is dangerous: someone could sneak in to known the secrets. Therefore, the content of the Internet they are given in the printout. And though the generals are on the tables of expensive models of computers and laptops, they have no idea what the Internet means to modern life. So I’m inclined to assume that the negative effects will far exceed the pros on which they rely.

“Irritation grows into a new political behavior”

On the eve of the presidential elections, the main emotion against Putin was tired. The people said, of course we will vote for him, but in the hope that this is the last time. At the same time still had some hope, though not very strong, that, perhaps, Mr Putin will try to restore the contract: was used the agreement that the king protects the people from the evil boyars, provides an acceptable standard of living. But first, the king reappointed the same government headed by Medvedev, and fatigue began to turn in irritation.

And then it was announced on the pension reform, even though we all secretly expected that Putin will say: we do not need the reform, I got excited. (It really isn’t necessary: the country could do without it, especially since the life expectancy for men in some regions below the age of retirement). No, not ago played. And irritation began to develop into hostility and aggression.

From my point of view, this process is developing faster than I could, than I thought. In the regional elections in autumn 2018 four regions rolled of governors, which Putin suggested. (I was told that in reality, these regions were eight, not four, just four managed to win these elections). This means that the irritation develops into a new political behavior.

I remember it was in 1989, 1990 year, under the Soviet regime: for anyone, only against the Communists. Now all vote for anyone, only against “United Russia”. And this is a harmless political behavior: in the face no one beats the pogroms do not call. You just come and vote against it.

And sometimes not so peaceful and political behavior. We often hear from officials: “You are not standing… You have no one in Afghanistan is not sent… nobody asked You to give birth… Who are you? Shelupon”. People felt what was suspected before, but that is then offset by the benefits of economic growth: what government looks at them as trash, that this government is a foreign occupation, because it is not going to realize any one of the basic human interests and openly talking about it.

Look at the history with the placement of landfills. There is a conclusion, not some of the opposition and the “popular front”, it will increase tenfold cancerous diseases, diseases of respiration. And your children will get sick, and grandchildren. What? Someone thought to refuse to buy other plants with improved technology? There is at stake a lot of money, tens of billions of rubles and billions of dollars. The opinion of the people who will live near these landfills and breathing, generally not taken into account. You ask, complain, go to the courts — can’t hear you. How do you react? What means of exposure you have left?

All this causes a very strong power and such unconventional forms of protest as recently in Arkhangelsk, where several thousand people took to the streets, passed through the cordon and staged a spontaneous rally. It’s good that they have not heard the officials did not dare to go.

“Attempts to implement constitutional reform will cause a very strong reaction”

So, we see two new features of political behavior: conventional protest when we go and vote, and unconventional: we don’t believe that it is possible to change something by voting, complaints, petitions, court, and go out into the street. The question is, when one behavior to another will grow and grow if at all.

What does it depend? It continues to critically depend on Putin. He is the main intermediary between the bureaucracy, the “elite” and the society. For companies it is the main guarantor of the efficiency of the bureaucracy and for the bureaucracy, “elite” man who could control the electorate, society. And if the level of his electoral support is high, it means that society is not ready to speak, but reducing the level of support is a dangerous signal.

Now real support for Putin — at the level of 30%.

If you look at various opinion polls, such as the number of those who support a law limiting Internet freedom, we will always see this figure is 30%. This is the level of stable, base of support for the President. This is not enough to control the society as a whole, and feel very good bureaucrats.

As for the transit authority, all serious: there are various options, selected candidates, preparing amendments to the Constitution. It was supposed to start making them in 2020, so that Volodin has something to say, Vladimir Solovyov.

But there is one, as he said, Boris Yeltsin, flourish: carry out constitutional reform well when you are on top of the power and peace of mind when you are in the country perfectly are economic Affairs. Someone reform will not like it, but in General people will decide, God bless him. But now it begins to flake and tear like wet paper. The people who are involved in the constitutional amendments, gave me this analogy: it’s as how to replace the gasket in the old Soviet apartment. Change the padding — fly tap, it is necessary to change the tube, and then the wall flew. Such things cannot be done in a situation approaching, escalating crisis. Therefore, from my point of view, anything that is conceived, will not be realized. Attempts to implement constitutional reform will cause a very strong reaction, much more significant compared to what they could be several years ago.

To change the Constitution had in 2011-2012, even better in 2008. would then Vladimir Vladimirovich the head of the state Council — that we would now be talked about? The greatest ruler of Russia, who raised the country from his knees, which was the order. But in Russia everything is always done at the wrong time or with the wrong people.

“The official may be arrested, to be replaced, but the system works worse”

In addition to the leader there is the retinue that the leader “plays”. With Suite is also a serious problem that we are seeing on a local, regional level. The governors are updated by two-thirds, came, as they are called, “young technocrats” or former guards of the President. Management efficiency declined sharply, this is noted everywhere. Because Deputy from Moscow or a great guard, not necessarily becoming a good Governor. He is afraid to talk to people, local officials, and they encircle it around your finger.

Yes, we have a country reports, it is especially well known by those who work with teachers, physicians. We all know how to write reports. But the management and political behavior — it does not work with papers and people. If you have 5-10 thousand people come to the area, that you will send them the riot? In the 90-ies was not sent — not afraid to reach out to people and talking to them, agreed and thus managed to extinguish the crisis. Then there was such a term: governors-heavyweights. They were the heavyweights, because he was involved in politics, not paper, and knew how to work with people.

Further, many things that seemingly should be positive, in fact, destroy the system. Take Dagestan, where he began the fight against corruption. All is welcomed: great, great! A year has passed, many officials removed, and now you can’t solve any issue — no land acquisition, no sewage systems and so on. No one to turn to, the system is not working. It turns out that the official may be arrested, to be replaced, but the system works worse. This is similar to what it was during the late Gorbachev. Then, the publicity was, criticism and self-criticism, and the party bureaucracy was still ideological, but in the end she came to the conclusion: why do we need all this?

Here comes the idea: once the technocracy doesn’t help, provide it in a pinch Stalinist pepper, carry out arrests of embezzlers. We at the regional level repression affected 2% of the officials in comparison with Stalin’s times things vegetarianism. But in Stalin’s time was not the present system of communications, social networks, such rapid exchange of information. Now the effect of criminal cases and landings the 2% is much higher than under Stalin. And officials say: why work, when everything we do can be delivered to us in guilt, and will punish us? Better to just pretend that work to direct reports. And reports are becoming more. However, I have heard: all is not jail, and we need to live, our children need to live, get ready for what’s next.

Here is the conversation I told one of my friend, the owner of the patent for a very important and valuable technical invention, people are extremely wealthy, having achieved success in the banking business. Six months ago, one of those who wear uniforms, said to him: you know, I can lobby for the project and to obtain money from the Treasury. — Great, let’s prepare the documents. I don’t need all those documents. Get money, divide and all. — What about the project? — You do not understand the place to start such chaos that we will be no business.

Very interesting seemed to me that samorazoblachitelnym recognition, because it came from the person who is called upon to protect national interests and security. But now more and more cases of the FSB excites for economic crimes against businesses than to protect the security of the country. Which in itself is symptomatic.

“Actually creating a broad civic coalitions”

What this means for all of us? On the one hand, we can become victims. On the other — offers a chance for change. In history it happens that everything is predetermined, you can’t go beyond his own biography. For example, under Brezhnev: it was predetermined, where you go to study, when you get a flat, will wyslouzil retirement, 3-4 years you will save and buy the car, “bucket of bolts”. And then came Gorbachev, and — at first it seemed impossible — everyone around began to change in 1989 there was a sense that life is not predetermined, it was not until 1993, in a sense, the future opened in 1996, during the famous presidential election: I think more competitive elections in our history since then and was not the situation then was very tense, all hung in the balance.

And then came the order, determinism. And we willingly accepted it, not because Russians hate democracy, no, we are just like everyone else. We just decided that after many trials of the twentieth century have the right to live quieter and slightly better. Many have decried the lack of choice, but when I saw the figures of their income, said to hell with it.

Another year and a half ago, before the presidential election, we still thought that everything is predetermined. But now, wherever you go, all say that something began to change. The existing order of things ends and we re-open the space for choice, different possibilities. We will use them in different ways, 99% will not use, but always remains a 1% ambitious individuals and groups who understand that the hell we something to affect, something to implement, and we have a chance. And how to behave in even a small group of people, may depend very much. For this we need to do two things: first, the want, the second step.

I don’t think that is true of politics in a party format. I think that is actually the creation of broad civic coalitions, like the movement “Democratic Russia”, which was created in the early 90s and where it was “pair of every creature”. In such coalition can join any citizens, organizations, parties. It’s time to think and act collectively. Individual strategies are good in times of prosperity, when we Masha pushes each other’s elbows, and when you find yourself in a social hell, and today Russia is a social hell to get out alone, no one can, escape can only be together, regardless of politics and ideology. We all have different political views, but what unites us is the desire to provide a decent life, make it better, more humane. We all have the full right to a decent life in their country, on their land.

Do not believe when they say: unable to Russian. We have many honest people, many civil society activists who deal with various issues — animal rights activists or defenders of the rights of the homeless and so on. They are apolitical, but what does it matter? You just need to give them at least a hint, at least some point of crystallization, and this will start a chain reaction of unification, all will begin to rapidly change and evolve. And the query is, in all segments, from all sides. The idea of unification is not only long overdue, it is already overdue. For the most part we acceptable for each other and can agree. You just need to start taking the first steps. Personally, I’m willing to work with any who have a common purpose. The other day I wrote of the “Left front”, was asked to speak in front of them. I said, see, I’m a man not leftist and extreme right. We say, know, we are not going to discuss, we want the coalition to talk.

And then, when we achieve common objectives, willing to break up, the coalition will disintegrate into the party and they will compete with each other. Must pass two or three national elections, then we will have a real party that will form a reasonable Parliament. But the experience of Association and common action will help ensure that the not-killing forward; people who are struggling along, hardly going at each other with weapons.

“To bring Russia to the path of sustainable economic growth can very quickly”

Now I have a strange optimism, I know that we will be able to create a new Republic, and I am sure that this will happen in our life. She (the new Republic — approx. ed.) will not be very democratic: it is not possible to build democracy. But, first, the state will be more reasonable (because now we have a deficit of common sense reigns militant idiocy, Tips in comparison with what was happening was the height of rationality). Second, more humane. We’re not expendable, you have one life, and we want to live now, not in the distant future, and certainly not for the confrontation with the United States, especially the United States we resist not going.

And to bring Russia to the path of sustainable economic growth can be very fast.

We could live, maybe not in Germany, but certainly not worse than in the Czech Republic. We are worse than others? Nothing.

We have a beautiful country, educated people, a lot of resources. All doable merely by reducing corruption, the level of administrative idiocy. Yes, Russia will go through a severe crisis, but it will not be as heavy and long as in 90-e years. Everything will be decided much faster in 10-15 years.

But we already lost 10 years. Russia never lived in such favorable conditions: were high oil prices, we did not have any enemy, we were friends with the West and receive the resources of technology. And suddenly you know that the standard of living back to 2008-2009. We took, and struck out 10. Here’s what to think.

“The attempt which we undertake will last. Forces to the second will not be”

(answers to questions from the audience)

About variants of development of political processes

The government acts very logical: if you touch nothing it will resolve itself, and to touch only if it is absolutely necessary. So officials are doing only what is required from them, just to report. In fact, in the framework of Russian history is a rational behavior: you minimize risks and provide the greatest chance for survival. However, there is solidarity and responsibility for the national interest. Therefore, the coalition should take at least some responsibility.

All other options — is purely theoretical. The second “Crimea”, there is not expected. To unite with Belarus? But we have 50% of the population don’t want this Association, and young people do not want totally. To declare someone a war, and then surrender, as the Israeli joke? Still not our way. Repression? Yes, plenty. Now for the media to effect repression has reached almost Stalinist level. What? It did not solve any of the problems.

Repression is needed when you want to tremble all the same, from us to those at the top. But the main thing — to live comparable. People the most depressing and annoying injustice. Say to them: endure hardship. I tolerate, but someone bathed in luxury. If we stand, let us stand in solidarity, it is also a manifestation of civic solidarity. At least from the yacht, give up, say, I turn my boat of the Russian Navy, now he doesn’t need a new destroyer. But Putin is the boat will not be taken away, he will wait.

About saving the power by the outbreak of war

The threat of global war for good while not in use. When you start to use it, don’t care what happens with your power. As I said the American Colonel, very calmly, unemotionally: Yes, we know — who attacks first, dies second. In the great war no one is interested. However, may increase risks due to the lack of systematic contacts, some random mistakes, and the mistakes of politicians, not the military. Military well agree between themselves: our go to NATO, meeting on a neutral field, communicate well, drink vodka and whiskey. Then come: they have such a system! We need to rearm! Urgently need a budget! But really no one wants to fight because I know what this means. So do not take propaganda for reality.

Yes, and our people, though proud of foreign policy, just internal stuff, as soon as they ask: what about war? are you ready to sacrifice something for the sake of helping Syria, Venezuela, Sudan, the African brothers? — answer: no. Especially not ready in the province, and especially women. Women are already the polls are not ready, they without exception don’t like this foreign policy. Because women bear and raise boys not to be “cannon fodder”, and because they are not men, and women form the household budgets. Proud foreign policy of the only men living in big cities, and not all. The impact of foreign policy worked well from 2014 to 2017, now it should not be exaggerated. We as normal people are more interested in domestic politics. So don’t think I’ll be able to use a foreign “lightning rods” compensators.

About the readiness of the authorities to bloodshed

The fact that these people are mentally prepared to fill the country with blood, no doubt. The issue is that when the General gives an order to use batons against the demonstrators if their 5 Grand — easy, 15 thousand — the experience is, 50 thousand — is already in doubt, may not be enough forces. If of those 50 thousand will be 2-3 thousand football fans, and they’re bound to be subordinate to the General will say: go accelerates itself. In December 2010, when fans of “Spartak” went on Manezhnaya square, this is exactly what happened. The Kremlin ordered, and answered them: go try it yourself.

Whether given the order to open fire? Willingly admit — Yes. But who will perform? The General ordered the Colonel, and will give the Colonel when the situation is critical and he realizes that everything fluctuates, and while under the sights of hundreds of cameras? All stand and shoot. Where hide his subordinates?

There’s deterrent power of fear, which should not be underestimated. They really afraid, because there is a limit beyond which no one goes. Not that someone will go to the people, just no one will follow orders. Close to this was in August of ‘ 91: the tanks then withdrew, but to open fire, nobody dared. But then it was still a strong ideology, gave the oath. And the country was stronger than this.

Today, in place of an ideology — money. But will you be able to use your money when you’re on the run and you will have to find courts around the world to bring to the Hague Tribunal for crimes against humanity? Will you be able to enjoy the money? No, you can’t.

And international practice shows that with the war in Yugoslavia it has been 25 years, but still find, escorted to the Hague and judged, and “give life huge.” Therefore, we should not exaggerate this risk: the other era and other people. Besides, police officers have the same problems that we have with you.

About the future of today’s “elite”

I see that, after the inevitable political crisis established a new government. I can’t tell who these people are. We have a rich negative experience, it is very important, more important than the experience positive. We passed 90 years, then there was mass demand for enlightened authoritarianism. We learned what enlightened authoritarianism in Russia. From my point of view, no one strongman has no chance of becoming President here, because now everyone knows their potential. Based on this we have no other way but to negotiate and to nominate [another candidate]. What happens? Hope that will get better.

As for the current “elite”, that is, the dominant group, which is the main pillar of the existing order, these people not too much, 2-3 dozen. Perhaps, it would be a hard time. But it makes no sense to fight with everyone, with many easier to negotiate. And it’s real. Many of those who are called oligarchs and who is such, even the most odious of them, ready to conclude an agreement with the company, to pay compensation for privatization. They say: do not want these funds went to the state Treasury, otherwise they will be lost, let it be special trust funds under public control, for example for treatment of children.

Russia is not so strong a country to embark on the risk of civil war, we will have to agree, and I don’t doubt the ability of our people. During the world Cup they really had fun, no police, no one rushed, no one is hit. It turned out that our people are fully conversant with the skills of social self-control, self-organization. We have reached a very high level of maturity. Just the government is a parasite on the suggestion that we are children and without her will kill each other. No, it is not. We passed 90 years without civil war, although he was on the verge. And now it will not be exact. We can agree, I have no doubt.

Someone asks: what about security officers, security officers, because they will be protected? And in August of ‘ 91 they were protected? Where they all were when I had to defend the monument to Dzerzhinsky [on the street], great Soviet Union — that they swore to protect. And now they will defend only their own state. And state protected individually, not collectively. For collective protection need an ideology. And then they will say: here take these, they are all to blame and we have always been on your side.

At the point of crisis people who were at the top, begin to compete for the first to reach out to the people. We were surprised to find that Vladimir Solovyov, Dmitry Kiselev and other similar “always been against”, they were forced at gunpoint. This has happened in many countries, Russia is no exception.

I said that sustained support for Putin is 30%, that’s a lot. But if there is a threat who will come to the square to protect him? No. Caucasians? Caucasians will go to defend Moscow jewelry stores and banks, for 3-4 days, which is enough for protection. After that, they will defend their homes.

On lustration
 
To some extent the lustration will have to make. Someone will have to leave, it will be better for everyone, and for them too. I would try to start in 2-3 regions and would look at how it works.

In a total replacement need of the judiciary, the legal system needs to be cleaned. And it can be done.

I spoke with professionals, they believe: to appoint graduate students of faculty of law and the system will work better. If you want, call it a lustration, I would call improving efficiency.

In addition, there is such a thing as a voluntary Amnesty when people who had served in the security forces, according to his will signed that he was innocent of crimes against humanity, declares his condition and is willing to pay with it income tax, say, in the West — 30%. Let him live, the only — he will not have the right to take a position in the civil service.

If we think about how to punish all, it will turn into a favorite Russian pastime: punishment innocent, rewarding of not privy. The vast majority of our bureaucratic apparatus is the people who don’t take bribes, maybe because they can’t, but it certainly didn’t take it. They are trying to do their job and cursing the senselessness of those stupid things that they charge. They should be relieved of many functions continue to operate normally.

In the beginning of zero years under state control was 20-30% of the business, is now 70%. Why? The state has many redundant functions, let’s take it from them free. We have a local government, let’s give back.

We can beat the whole world in creating a modern bureaucracy, if we are to create a digital state. Russia is a huge country, and this way, when many issues are resolved on the Internet, can be very effective. Thus, we finally solve the age-old Russian problem — to reduce the number of officials.

On the political preferences of Russians

There is a feeling that the majority are supporters of centrist views and approaches, normal people who avoid extremes, and want the opportunity to live in peace, to make an honest living and his salary to feed his family. After all, we have two employees can’t feed themselves and a child, it’s a shame. Supporters of the distinct forms of liberalism — 15-20%, 15% nationalists, leftists too little.

I don’t think that Russia left the country, this is a huge misconception, and I don’t believe in rematch left, in my opinion, they are scary. Russia was left in the 90-ies, when they voted for Zyuganov. Today there are those who curse the rich, but the question is, who in the final hour will come to the area, and who will go to the polls.

Now according to their natural views of Russia, perhaps the most right country in Europe. How do you start building a house? Not from the Foundation, and with the fence. We guard ourselves, we are ardent individualists. People want to live well, to grow and to earn. And as soon as they provide at least a slight, but noticeable improvement in life, they will say: those whom we will support. They don’t care what it will be called: libertarianism, social democracy…

But there will not be social democracy: if you want to start the economic mechanism to develop super-fast (which is possible), we need liberal economic policy. Social democracy- this is when increased wealth and there are things to distribute. Now we distribute with poverty, with poverty. It is so thin that you have to lick. Those social programs that have announced power — is only to the people of hunger have died.

Emigration

The government has an unwritten policy: do not bother to leave even the most restless to leave. But the fact is that, firstly, the power itself gives rise to restless, his every gesture, and they have a lot more those who prefer to leave. Secondly, there are those like me who say, why should I leave the country? I believe that my mission is different: I have to make life there worthy of our people, they deserve it. And like me very much.

It turns on thick: if evil come together to do evil, why not unite good? We are divided, it is the result of Soviet policy, which was taken from our people all the skills of self-organization and collective action. And everything is done today to convince people of the uncertainty and fear. But the government itself is constantly afraid, she lives with a sense of growing fear. A strong power does not need to enter the “reliable Internet” or “law on insulting”.

The opposition

A huge problem of the Russian opposition that it may not offer a Mature strategy suitable for a particular group, age or political, not for those who shout “down with the bloody gebni” and chucks sneakers, and a strategy for most companies. I have this causes a deep sense of disappointment, because these people are proud of their intellectual superiority in relation to power. Where is your superiority? Show, offer something. That’s the problem, and this strategy need to develop. It is not too difficult, it’s on the surface.

Many countries have adopted the strategy of civil disobedience. Example: we don’t like TV, we don’t watch it, why, it would seem that intelligent, honest people nevertheless go there, and continue to speak? Let us call upon them to boycott. No need to go on such a TV. If these people show solidarity and basic common sense, declares that he will not go there, won’t be there as “doodles in Polish preference”, “whipping boys,” something will start to move.

This strategy needs to be proactive. We are still discussing: municipal filter, allowed to vote or not allowed. This means that you go to the “chalk circle” that drew you to the authorities, and dare not marry him. Try to do something that the authorities begin to think. It is a question of intellectual maturity. But I think it’s also possible, not daunting.

All countries that achieved rapid economic growth — European, Asian, — used in different sequences and combinations, but the same set of tools. Even invent anything not necessary, all is already invented. I hope that use will succeed.

Not such country has varied. I always bring the example of Georgia. Those who lived in Soviet times, remember that Georgia and corruption were synonymous. And Saakashvili has taken and managed. Corruption was impregnated the whole social fabric, and said without corruption is impossible, Georgia will collapse. Collapsed. And Italy collapsed. So can we, and no worse, perhaps even better.

About the new elite

The attempt which we undertake will last. Forces to the second will not be. Therefore, we must do everything that she did.

In the crucial moments of the history of selection and the start of a new historical trajectory depends on a small group of people. It all starts with their desire to change their country, the fate of the nation and his own, even with their vanity, with the desire to enter the history books and their ability to move sequentially. So the time was Boris Yeltsin. He possessed two qualities which since then has not a single Russian politician: it is a real will to power and a brilliant political intuition. Will to power means the ability to risk — not others (we easily run the risk of others), and themselves.

We have the [necessary] people: those who have achieved notable success in the 90’s and “zero”, grew up the younger generation. This avant-garde society, a small motor, which can run large Russian. And there are many people. In Russia, 147 million. Surely we can find a hundred people? Don’t believe it. Find a hundred, two hundred, three hundred.

Yes, we will make new mistakes. But let us make them. Not once throughout Russia. We already have regions that are ready to govern, there are regions that are not quite ready. Apparently, we need a differentiated approach. But we do not need to “protect”: we know better and will do everything for you, and will do better. We came out of the nursery. And we have to take responsibility for the consequences of their decisions, including errors (which in Russia do not really want). But this is the act of forming a new elite — when people come and say: we made these decisions, we are responsible for them in front of you.

And if good men and their followers remain in power for 10-15 years, the new generation will grow and it will be the institutionalization of a new trajectory of development. We get a completely new country. And be able to say: we stood at the cradle, took part can be proud of. And if you do not accept, then you have nothing to ask from these people. I think we are ready for this step to take responsibility, be held accountable.

In preparing the material participated Yuri Grebenshchikov.

The publication is a summary of a lecture presented at the Yeltsin Centre. This is similar to, but not a literal retelling.

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