.People in Russia are struggling to convince that the closer the election, the more they suddenly began to love its power.
Ratings are up?
Media close to the Kremlin recently vying argue that the love of the citizens to the government in General and Vladimir Putin in particular, has grown significantly. And we are talking about electoral ratings and trust level of the head of state and the assessment of the correctness of his course.
According to Fund “Public opinion”, even growing the level of confidence in the main “whipping boy” of national politics — Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Although the number of those who disapprove his work, still one and a half times higher than the number approving.
It is also said to increase ratings and governors. The reverse pattern is observed with protest potential. He kind of declines after a sharp summer splash.
However, there is clearly manipulation of public opinion and desire with the help of such publications and the resulting discussions to influence the mood of the population. Yet in reality, all surveys record the change of the main ratings by one to two percent-within the statistical error.
If the mood was changing in the opposite direction, the same Kremlin commentators argued would now (as it was in the spring of 2019, when the growing discontent was much more significant) that this is just the standard deviation and no significant change occurs.
Overall, that’s probably true. The level of dissatisfaction, soaring up after the increase in the retirement age, not falling, but not significantly growing. The authorities by 2021, when elections to the state Duma, it is necessary to reverse this trend.
So that the background of the sanctioned rumors and “unauthorized” — that the Kremlin has started a big campaign to simulate data about public sentiment. In the hope that it (of course, in the short term) will affect the real mood of society.
Shoigu under attack
The reason for a new wave of rumors was the publication of records of negotiations, was in the hands of the investigation team dealing with the case of the Downing in 2014 over the Donbass Malaysian Boeing. Media write, in accordance with these data the negotiating the “warlords” and sent from Moscow bosses actually confirmed that all their operations were conducted in the interests of Russia. It is argued that the transcripts of the names of presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, Minister of defence Sergei Shoigu and head of the FSB Alexander Bortnikov.
The origin of these records remains uncertain, and gave rise to different versions of who benefits. On one of versions, leak of information to the Dutch investigators carried out the Russians. Supposedly it could be intelligence agencies competing with the FSB and military intelligence. Another option is that the appearance of that information could stand some of the “civil” authorities who are now responsible for the settlement of the relationship with the new Ukrainian authorities and negotiates for the transfer of Donbass under the control of official Kiev. In General, guesses are built very different, and often ridiculous.
Accordingly, there are at least two versions of why these records are surfaced now. In accordance with the first, is a blow to those forces in Russia that oppose Donbass settlement. Another version says that this attack is directed primarily against Sergei Shoigu. It remains one of the most likely candidates for the post of President after 2024, if Vladimir Putin decides to leave office.
In November, it was actively discussed that Shoigu is the second rated public face after the current President. Remember its autumn interview “on all issues”. Here it was supposedly dealt a blow, because it is clear that the change of the first person in Russia must, among other things, be accompanied by “correcting” its foreign policy image. The man was accused of illegal actions on the territory of the neighbouring state are unlikely to be able to claim the Kremlin.
These rumors are confirmed by the statements “staff advocates”, among which are increasingly talking about finding the ruling class successors to Vladimir Putin. This served, of course, as a threat to Russia. But in reality, can be a form of protection of the rights of the incumbent President to remain in office after 2024, despite the constitutional limitation, and, on the contrary, part of the mechanism to gradually accustom the Russians to think about his upcoming retirement.
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