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Pandemic and shock of forced “isolation” bury “the credit boom”

Пандемия и шок принудительной «самоизоляции» похоронят «кредитный бум»

It seems that the pandemic and the shock of forced “isolation” bury “the credit boom”, the former one of the drivers of growth in the 2000s, and the “lost” of the 2010s was a factor in keeping Russia’s economy from falling into a state of growth “okolonulya”.

For so many people was a shock to face the external factor forced loss of work and the failure of “helping” borrowers from the state, which was limited only to rant about “vacation credit”, which in reality, was unavailable to most borrowers.

The incident is a good lesson for the mass of “risk management” for the population, who perceived the loans as a kind of “free money” that you can always pay off “someday”. Here is “someday” came in the form of forced “isolation” with the loss of work and income.

Previously, this risk of interference of our irresponsible state in the lives of millions of people no one thought that in the future will remember this.

I remember my grandmother who lived in tsarist Russia, the first 12 years, has always said that debt is no one to take with you. And she was 63 years age difference, and around the “rapidly decaying” Brezhnev socialism. They — that generation could remember about credit risk.

Similarly, it will be, it seems, and with the failure of the investment. Businesses that (again forced) was obliged to pay the “days off” employees, will be further concerned about the creation of “safety cushion” and a reduction in unnecessary staff instead of investment and development credit.

The “Golden age” of banks in Russia, it seems that the pandemic is finished, too. Opportunities to borrow from the Central Bank money at 6% per annum, and lend it out at 12% (mortgage) — 15% (unsecured loans) — 20 — 30% (loans to SMEs) will now be impossible. The money will not demand. And the commissions in the world totally happy Finance happy to assist you.

Bank Commission on “credit cards”, which are likely to be more debit than credit, long angry look trade network. So it looks like they will have to cut, and about a generous programme of kesbeke for Bank customers to forget.

This is not the time then there could be a variety of “skeletons in closets” state banks in the form of a strange loans to state-owned companies and “just good people” among the friends of gosmenedzhment banks, friends and officials of the security services, losses that “hide” will no longer work.

Banks will save, and for the amount that exceeds not held “help” SMEs and the population. But “osadochek remain.” Perhaps even in the form of real criminal terms for the bankers.

As a result, in a situation of real assessment of the risks of lending money will increase the value of equity and may have a market for “junk bonds” as an alternative to Bank loans.

© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.

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