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The transit authority? Do not wait

Транзит власти? Не дождетесь

No problem transmission of the Supreme authority in 2024 in Russia and never will be — because no one wants change.

Another survey of “Levada-center” about the attitude of Russians to Vladimir Putin again demonstrated the obvious, in my opinion, the thing. Namely, that no problem “transit authority” in 2024 in Russia. And never will be. Society in General, such transit does not want. Elite — even more so. The power was in the hands of the leader and will stay with him after this term. In this case, as in the future will be the name of his position, does not matter.

Little doubt that closer to 2024, if not earlier, we will hear from Putin something similar to what I said the other day his Belarusian colleague Alexander Lukashenko, answering the question whether he would run for the presidency in 2020 and 2025. “I bruised my fingers will not hold this chair,” said he and immediately said, — If you ask me, I will never withdraw his candidacy. I will nominate”. It is clear that if someone asked him not to run for President, it will be a pitiful minority, opposition thugs.

Similarly, Putin. He also would not “stick chair.” But most Russians, of course, will be to once again see him there. Because the majority is always for stability. And Putin — what to do! — I give you…

It is most certainly not very pretty with my life (which translates into the results of other surveys, for example, about the attitude of the government), but he on a daily basis, patiently and persistently inspired a simple idea: leave the guarantor — will be even worse. Or (as an option), there will be who knows what. But the uncertainty and unpredictability of the average man in the street fears most. Yes, today is not sugar, but let it be as it is…

Life, meanwhile, gradually getting heavier. But the main thing is that it gradually and not fast. And if anything, we always know who to blame: liberals, entrenched in the government, Chubais (held in the mass consciousness of a separate category of evil), the West building plots, the Chinese (but not China — we admire them), occupying Siberia, nonpredatory — but you never know who else?

One woman wrote me in Facebook that “thanks to Putin we are all still alive”. The answer is that not all are alive that the total decrease in the population of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2018, amounted to about 8 million people, it is, of course, is not convinced. In Putin, in Russia “you just have to believe.” She does believe.

Another lady wrote that in fact all power in the hands (don’t laugh!)… Dmitry Medvedev. From what they say, and all the troubles. To explain that in the hands of the President in fact the largest after the U.S. nuclear Arsenal, a huge army, all the intelligence agencies that the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is subordinate to Putin, of course, also does not make sense. She also believes. But the feelings of believers we offend — no-no…

I gave this opinion for the reason that they (with different variations) is very typical for most. And precisely because of this position in Russia there is a political system which at an early stage weeds out anyone that might be at least some competition to the leader and the party in power.

Now as for the data, which are shared by the “Levada-center”.

The headings of some media in the spirit of “the Russians have less to admire Putin” seem to reveal a lot more desirable than the real situation. Yes, if you compare the polls of the inhabitants of Russia on this subject in a short (5-6 years) prekrasni and oleksinski period, we can see some dynamics of reducing their enthusiasm towards the President. However, if we look at the results of the same research over a longer time, you will see that I’ve had worse, but still not fatal.

When necessary, ratings can always cheat controlled TV channels. And if that remedy fails (as in 2018 at the time of raising the retirement age), the level of support for the President still remains at a quite acceptable level.

The Putin phenomenon not only in that it is skillfully maneuvering between different interest groups both inside the country and abroad — it is what it is. This he did not take. In this (and only this) sense, it is probably almost the perfect politician. But the thing is that he gives everyone what was expected of him. However, he always — flexible or rigid — is pursuing a policy which he considers at the moment is correct. And all (at least within the country) in General is happy.

System liberals see that in economic policy, he is quite on their side. Debit credit driving. And that is the mixing is carried out at the expense of the majority — well, what can you do …

Left he regularly delivers hope, though small, in any social reforms. In the future. And when not served, they still believe in it. Let it be very small and not even reform, but only hope, but it’s still better than nothing, they argue. As he said recently to bring back socialism is impossible (of our left for some reason this did not upset), but some of its elements — why not. Left conformist (the conformist among the left as much as among the right — that is the majority) happy and that. “Putin is our or will be our”, — he dreams. And what is “here” lasts for 20 years is not a conformist any difference. Hoping for the wisdom of the Governor, he is ready to wait as much…

With the right even better. For most of them, Putin has practically embodied the ideal of the Emperor — the Empire is expanding, its military power increases, enemies threatened, says about himself, as “the proper and effective nationalist”. What else to dream? Is it only gently, but persistently to continue to push him to even greater resolve in all these areas.

It turns out that the vast majority of Russian society, Putin satisfied that once again showed the data of sociologists. So, with high probability we can predict that Putin will be in power as much as will enable him to health. About which he says: “can’t wait”.

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