“Russia’s military-industrial complex started operating to the full extent” – Which side is more likely to have benefited from the situation on the battlefield in the past year?
– The Russian side, definitely. Territorial gains this year were insignificant for both sides. The AFU made some progress toward Zaporozhye, but it was an advance in open country. Meanwhile, Russian units captured some critical points, like the fortified towns of Soledar and Artyomovsk. Maryinka has almost been captured, and the army has made considerable progress in Avdeevka.
Even regarding territorial gains, the scale tips in favor of Russia. But territorial acquisitions are unimportant since we are talking about a war of attrition. We saw that the balance of forces between the two armies was shifting. Russia’s military-industrial complex started operating to the full extent, which led to changes on the battlefield. We have seen the massive use of new types of weapons, such as gliding aviation bombs, which have altered the role of the Russian Air Force in the conflict. While earlier their use had been limited, now dozens of heavy aerial bombs are dropped per day.
The situation with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is also improving. Russia used to have a shortage of this necessary equipment, but now it surpasses the enemy in certain aspects. There has also been a major increase in the use of modern barrage ammunition and some other systems, including precision-guided munitions. We have also seen T-90M tanks and new types of light armored vehicles on the battlefield.
Management of the Russian Armed Forces has also become a lot more efficient. Serious incidents have been minimized, such as the ones that occurred last year. Generally, we can observe the transformation of the Russian army and the growth of the country’s defense sector.
– Has anything similar happened for Ukraine?
– No, it hasn’t. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing resources – primarily human resources. Western military supplies have also passed their maximum and declined after Ukraine’s partners couldn’t quickly increase military production.
Moreover, the time is now over when there were no other major global crises, and all the aid could be given exclusively to Ukraine. Now, there is a conflict in Israel, and the situation around Taiwan is escalating, so Ukraine will no longer be able to receive the kind of assistance it used to get.
Russian servicemen prepare a Giatsint-B 152 mm self-propelled howitzer before firing towards Ukrainian positions in the course of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, in the direction of Krasnyi Lyman, also known as Lyman, Russia. © Sputnik / Sputnik“Ukraine needs about $5 billion a month in order to avoid total collapse” – Indeed, Ukrainian officials are increasingly saying that the Israeli-Hamas conflict has led to a decrease in arms supplies to Ukraine. What kind of military assistance can we expect from the West in the future?
– There are several important aspects here. In Western countries, arms supplies are limited by production capacities and the defense production regulation system, which includes budget aspects. Any sudden increase in the production of military equipment (primarily shells) should occur at the expense of manufacturing companies. But to launch this process, the companies must be assured of long-term demand.
No one wants to invest vast amounts of money in expanding military production only to discover in a few years that the war in Ukraine is over, and you’re left face-to-face with creditors. Long-term demand must be guaranteed to ensure sustainable production growth.
Moreover, Western countries have become ‘deindustrialized’ and, in recent decades, have focused on the service economy. There aren’t that many production workers, new ones cannot be trained quickly, and it’s not that easy to find people who want to work in this field today.
This problem will continue for a long time, and definitely throughout the following year. Efforts will be made to circumvent it by increasing military production in Eastern European countries and in Ukraine itself. But, most likely, Russia, relying on its excellent relations with China, North Korea, Iran, and some other countries, will be able to increase its own military production even faster.
– And what about financial assistance to Ukraine?
– Even after the outbreak of hostilities, the country could not function independently without external funding. Presently, Ukraine needs about $5 billion a month to avoid total collapse. Up to a certain point, Ukraine tried to plug its budget deficit with money creation, i.e., printing more currency, but these measures were limited due to the threat of hyperinflation.
Currently, Ukraine is being externally funded, like Afghanistan was under the rule of former President Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban.
The stakes are high. I repeat – Ukraine is an important geopolitical project for the West. Therefore, it will be funded. Indeed, we see that domestic political conflicts and political polarization in the US may disrupt some decisions and cause gaps in financing to occur. This may be very unpleasant, but it does not imply that the Ukrainian system will suffer a major collapse.
Moreover, the EU is still ready to provide funds (even though the opposition is also active there). Support for Ukraine is more expensive than, for example, the war in Iraq, but the financial burden is equally distributed among the allies. Therefore, the costs of funding Ukraine are not insurmountable.
“A new war would be very difficult and dangerous for Russia” – What are the main goals for both sides on the front line?
– The AFU’s primary goal is to prepare for a major defensive fight, to inflict the maximum possible losses on Russia while losing minimum territory in the process. This would help Kiev and its Western backer reach their primary political goal: Forcing Russia to agree to a truce along the existing line of contact without any obligations on Ukraine’s part, a situation that may lead to the rearmament of the Ukrainian army and Kiev’s accession to NATO. This would allow the West to continue using Ukraine to pursue its anti-Russian policy and, if necessary, to start a new war in a few years, which would be very difficult and dangerous for Russia.
For Russia, the main task is to continue pushing Ukraine into a strategic dead-end, avoiding any risky and difficult steps that could change the current favorable course. Apparently, the goals of the Russian army will include tactically improving its positions at different sections of the front, undermining Ukraine’s economic potential, inflicting losses, and increasing its own military production to tip the balance of forces in such a way as to end the conflict. We will likely reach such a balance of forces by the end of next year.
– What can we expect from the winter campaign?
– I think there will be no significant changes at the front. Russia will continue to gradually exert pressure on the AFU in key directions, primarily near Avdeevka. It remains a mystery whether Russia will strike Ukrainian infrastructure as it did last winter.
Russia has not used cruise missiles for over two months, and there is an assumption that the army is accumulating stocks of these weapons. We may see new developments in this regard; however, it is already December, the temperature dropped below freezing, and nothing has happened so far.
This interview was first published in Russian by Lenta.Ru, translated and edited by the RT team
By Dmitry Plotnikov , a political journalist exploring the history and current events of ex-Soviet states
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