The Central Bank of Russia raised on 27 August, the official exchange rate of the U.S. dollar by 37 cents to 65,9735 of the ruble. While the single European currency gained 77 cents, and tomorrow it will 73,3955 of the ruble.
Recall that at the start of today’s trading on the Moscow exchange, the Russian national currency slightly strengthened against the dollar and the Euro.
To date, the dynamics has not changed. So, as of 12:44 GMT us dollar exchange rate calculations “tomorrow” fell by 5 kopecks to the previous close to 65,9350 of the ruble. The single European currency by this time dropped almost 22 cents to 73,2925 of the ruble, according to data exchange.
As noted by the IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov, “trade war in the world moving to a new level, and sooner than we would like.” “First China (on Friday) announced import duties for goods of American manufacture, and the States are even silent. However, it is now known that starting 1 October, the USA raise tariffs on Chinese imports up to 30% from the current 25%. In total, this solution will get the goods turnover of at least $250 billion But that’s not all: the remaining part of Chinese imports will also be in the area of high duties, they will be revised to 15% from 10% previously. Some of this will come into force from 1 September, and 15 December,” says the review expert.
The head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvayev says that “the intensification of the conflict between the US and China undermining confidence in global economic growth, (and) of course, the prospects for energy demand are not very”. “The overall situation on the markets will put pressure on all risky assets. Including Russian equity and the national currency”, — the expert warns.
However, says senior analyst of “BCS Premier” Sergei Suverov, “the Russian ruble and stocks are trying to resist the global trends of risk aversion amid another round of crisis in us-China trade conflict, the degree of which increased on the background of the new round of “war taxes” and the weakening of the yuan exchange rate to 11-year low”.
However, emphasizes the Director of the Academy of management Finance and investment Arseniy Dadashev, “despite the lack of pressure on the domestic market, in conditions of tension prospects of development of bullish momentum looks limited.” This, according to him, “also applies to stock indexes and the ruble.”
We also add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in July 2019 rose 1.6% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar during the reporting period by 1.8%, the Euro 2.1%. For the first 7 months of the current year the real effective ruble exchange rate grew by 7.7%, including the us dollar by 7.1%, and to Euro — on 9%.
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