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Neither peak nor plateau

Ни пика, ни плато

I don’t know what happened in Transbaikalia. Statistics there per day — not out of the ordinary: 39 sick, 2 people died. For example, in the Pskov region plus 112 cases per day and an increase of almost 10%. So the President knows something that we don’t know. But it’s good that at least the President knows it and reacts. The military, at least, will do useful work, helping people, and not marching on the parade ground.

Coronavirus as something began to crawl away from the daily agenda — type, life is getting better, people went to work, trade opened with, soon football and all that. But look at the numbers. Even the official who can only be considered as valid at least! From the quarantine we began to leave may 12. Then night became ill on 10 thousand 800 people.

Watch June 4 — 8 thousand 800 people. Really less than two thousand. But this “whole” two thousand or “only” two thousand? During these three and a half weeks in Russia never had the numbers below 8300! And it was in the middle of last week, by the way. And then the curve went up again. So why so much optimism? Where the words we have passed some kind of peak? Rush is the pinnacle. Get to the top, and then begin to descend. To talk about passed the peak, it is necessary that every day steadily gained more people than was ill, and thus decreasing the number of active cases. Incidentally, in most tables, such graphs do not! Who cares how many were sick in March — matter how much it hurts at the moment! More? Less? And you go and find these figures.

You have to count in a column. And what happens after these calculations using high school math? Turns out that recovered was more than the new sick only three days last week, and two days at the beginning of this. But today the dynamics are again the opposite. That is, no peak we passed, and at best, it can be considered a plateau on which the country is after the may holidays.

Sorry if bore you with figures, but it’s important. Coronavirus began in Moscow, is the most difficult situation and there was a time when half of all cases recorded in the capital. But now Moscow less than a quarter of patients, and the statistics would not change. This means that the growth is coming at the expense of the regions. Which in all senses ready for the epidemic is much worse than in Moscow.

The capital, straining all the resources, mobilizing the entire staff and throwing it billions of rubles, stood literally on the edge. And what will happen with the overwhelming majority of the subjects who live on subsidies from the center? There’s not that no medicine of the 21st century, there is sometimes just no hospital in the County! From the American or Brazilian scenario we are saved only by the enormous fragmentation of the country and low population mobility.

But the threat has not disappeared, there is no victory we have won, and the situation has improved and if, again in Moscow. But ahead of the parade, where we need again to defeat the Nazis, ahead of the vote, where we need to protect orphans by gays, ahead of all the things for which we can puff our brains and close their eyes to any statistics.


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