According to analysts, it will not exceed 10-10,5%.
In 2017, the inflation in Ukraine accelerated compared to previous year 2016, but in 2018 it will again slow down. This is stated in the annual research of information-analytical center Forex Club in Ukraine.
The study notes that by the end of 2017 the level of inflation in Ukraine was the highest among the countries of Europe and CIS.
“Consumer prices in Ukraine since the beginning of the year increased by 13.6%, while the average price growth in Europe amounted to 2.6%, in CIS countries – 6,7%. This increase in inflation was due to higher costs for salaries, energy and investment program, which increased the costs of companies which were eventually rescheduled for the end user,” the message reads.
According to Forex Club, to this was added the unfavourable weather factors and low harvest of some groups of fruits and vegetables. The devaluation of the hryvnia in September only heightened inflationary pressures.
“For the third year in a row, we record high rates of inflation. The pace of price growth has slowed significantly compared to 43.3 per cent in 2015, but accelerated compared to 12.4% in 2016. However, we expect that next year inflation will not exceed 10-10,5%”, – said Andrey Shevchishin, a senior analyst at Forex Club.
In his opinion, the slowdown in inflation in 2018 will be due to the low probability of those adverse weather and external factors, which occurred in the current year and lower growth in regulated tariffs and charges, the rate of increase in the minimum wage, the high base of comparison of the prices of the products.
The main issue is the increase of gas prices for the population, which insists the IMF, and which may become an additional factor of acceleration of inflation, as reflected by rising prices not only for housing services but also for other goods. This factor will increase the pressure in case of rise in price of Brent crude oil on the world markets above $ 65 per barrel, and, consequently, fuel.
The impact on the dynamics of the market in 2018 will provide the hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations.
“And the corporate and private sectors lay in the sales of imported goods the rate of 30 UAH per dollar, and it will be implemented in the first half. After that, increase the market factor loses its influence, and only the devaluation of the hryvnia below 30 UAH per dollar put pressure on prices. Overall, we estimate the average annual rate in 2018 at the level of 29 UAH per dollar, with a fluctuation range of 27.5-30.3 per UAH per dollar”, – predicts Shevchishin.
Average inflation in most countries of Europe is 2.6%, in CIS countries – 6,7%. The high growth rate of consumer prices was observed in Azerbaijan (13.4 per cent), Turkey (13%), Tajikistan (7.7 percent) and Uzbekistan amid double devaluation of the Uzbek som.
© 2017 – 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.
