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Horizontal escalation

Горизонтальная эскалация

In the collection of overseas professionals for the “containment” of Russia and China soon may be a new strategy that “influential voices” in the White house are developing a to preserve US global leadership. This writes the American edition of Foreign Policy. The publication this scenario is called the “strategy of horizontal escalation and causing the cost.”

Its authors believe that currently the Armed forces of the United States “preparing for the era of great-power rivalry”. But a direct confrontation with Russia and China — whom Washington considers the main opponents they consider inappropriate. Since, as noted in the article, “advantages of Chinese in the Western Pacific ocean, and Russian in Eastern Europe are too large, and confront them directly in these regions impossible.”

But the output, in General, was found: it is proposed to look for the “vulnerable periphery”, using the “almost unlimited” access to the United States to any point of the globe, there to cause Russia and China are in serious trouble. Of course — only “for the sake of protecting their allies.”

“For example, if China were to attack Taiwan, the US could impose trade embargoes to attack Chinese base in Djibouti and Chinese targets in Pakistan, Cambodia and Sri Lanka. And if Russia will take over the Baltic countries, the United States can strike a blow for Russian troops in the Crimea or in Syria,” said Foreign Policy, noting that such tactics can cause the enemy “to refrain from attack and to abandon the original goals.”

As a more suitable option “for full containment” is considered a possibility of a strike on the Russian Far East. And also capture the so-called strategic centers of gravity — of the device of the government or important social and economic objects.

According to a member of the Federation Council Committee on defense and security Franz Klintsevich, it reminds of “raving lunatic”. “It’s not military people. Military people understand that if you want to win, then to start a war is not necessary, especially with Russia or China”, — quotes the words of the Senator, RIA “Novosti”.

Klintsevich also noted that “Russia has neither plans nor the necessity to attack” on the Baltic. And added that he was “ashamed of the us military, which is so diluted American politics.”

In turn, state Duma Deputy from the Crimea Ruslan Balbec called the American strategy of “beautiful”, but completely unenforceable and futile. “It’s one thing to shoot with impunity, Iraq or Libya, and quite another thing to war with a country is able to very quickly deliver a nuclear warhead right in the center of Washington,” said the MP.

And reminded about the existence of the Peninsula’s most powerful line of defense that will not let some American battleship to attack with impunity the territory of Crimea.

Professor of the Academy of military Sciences, senior researcher, Center for political studies of Russia Vadim Kozyulin suggested that the appearance of the next American scenario of “containment” of Russia and China is associated with both external and internal factors:

We see how politics Donald trump so many surprising, disturbing and scary. Moreover, not only in the United States. But among American allies in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region. This is the first.

Second. Western society sees multipolarity, which is becoming more and more evident. Most notably, of course, the growing influence of China. But not only… To the forefront of coming out with India and Iran. And Russia, of course.

That is, the world is changing rapidly, and American strategists are trying to invent something to make this process somehow to slow down. From all this diverse set of scenarios, which now joins the new strategy of “horizontal escalation”. Before that they had a draft of the “Ghost fleet” — also against China and Russia. He envisioned the use of unmanned robotic ships, which will move from one point of the World ocean to another, and to carry the missiles, the intelligence apparatus, sonars and radars.

Their other strategy was developed further under Obama as “Left of Launch”. It aims to combat the rocket threat through the use of electronic and cybersect. The point is, in order to bring down system of communication and control with the launch of ballistic missiles. North Korea — in the first place, but potentially Russia.

In short, today’s strategic military thought the United States is working very vigorously. But it only provokes fears in the United States, very often unfounded. And of course worried about potential enemies — China, first and foremost. But Russia, of course.

“SP”: — But why do they think the Crimea and the far East of our “vulnerable periphery”?

— Why Crimea is understandable. The West studiously not recognize the fact that allegedly the population of the Peninsula more than 95% of votes were in favour of reunification with Russia. It is believed that this Peninsula “occupied”. But the unenlightened reader is not necessarily a Philistine. They may be a member of Congress.

And here they believe that, indeed, the population is Pro-Ukrainian, so to speak, just waiting for the moment when the occupation ends, to the boxes to meet the American fleet. Which, of course, wrong. But in America — I admit — a large part of the population do not know about.

And in the far East the Americans have a powerful group. And allies in Japan and South Korea. In General, this area is well studied by the us military, us Navy. So, probably, I hope that their experience and strength allow them to plan.

“SP”: — And the fact that Russia and China are nuclear powers, remember? Or consider themselves immortal?

— Of course, they remember well. And, of course, will not go to those measures that would force Russia and China to use nuclear weapons.

Because today the idea of unacceptable military damage in the United States have dropped a nuclear strike on their territory they already considered unacceptable. So will be ready to go on the conflict to the extent that, so to speak, does not appear a real threat of a nuclear strike. And this limits its scope.

But, on the other hand, according to the Russian strategy, which was officially published, our country can use nuclear weapons only in the event of an existential threat to the state.

That is, they actually admit the possibility of conflicts that do not threaten the existence of the state. And, I think, in his latest strategy in the US just about it and are talking. In particular, about to unleash a local conflict which poses no threat to Russia’s sovereignty. Assuming that in such a conflict you can win, using the advantages that they actually have.

In the far East — especially. Our fleet in the region is not comparable with the us. We focus on nuclear missiles, the nuclear submarine fleet. But the rest of the ceded States.

However, all this is so hypothetical and so, in General, slippery and on the verge of a foul, so let’s say that during the actual conflict the Americans, I think, can’t even afford that.

“SP”: — Then what is all these developments that, actually, more like PC gaming scenarios?

I must say that all of these military “toys,” indulge. Both Russia and China. It’s their job — they need to have the script for any occasion. Including — and unlikely.

Most of the military of the world do it covertly, without advertising. The Americans, on the contrary, I love to work on the public. And often spread them online. Maybe they would be worth even to thank you for such transparency?

But, on the other hand, very often the military is misused. Stir up the situation (sometimes, so to speak, unconsciously, and sometimes consciously) aiming to increase defense spending. Industry and the military benefit from this.

I would some of the military were forbidden to speak. But today they are very popular newsmakers. Especially the us.

“SP”: — When they consider the option of involving the capture of the public administration system, isn’t that a direct threat to the state?

— It was a threat. But if they have already coped with this task, and seized control, they have virtually paralyzed our capacity of a nuclear response. That is, it is also very, very hypothetical thing.

Today, the United States, of course, the most powerful country in economic, financial and military terms. Their costs just for the military development oboronnye more than double all the expenses. And this, apparently, gives them some hope that technological superiority can provide them with complete invulnerability.

Certain, that is to say, the scenarios may well lead to that, do they become invulnerable. For example, when to place weapons in space and a fully neutralize the nuclear potential not only China, but also Russia.

But this is only a theoretical chance that they are grasping and trying to bring it to life. In reality, neither Russia nor China that they will not allow.

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