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From stagnation to “explosive” growth

От стагнации к «взрывному» росту

This has never happened to a few hours after the publication of official information of Rosstat withdrew it to correct numbers. It happened that the numbers specified at the next revision of the data, but that the such…

So, Rosstat just a few days after the publication of more than modest data for the first quarter of 2019 (an increase of 0.5% in annual terms) suddenly has documented the explosive growth of the industry in April 2019: 4.9% in annual terms. And in large measure this statistical breakthrough was provided an enormous increase in gas production by 16% (!), gas condensate — by 2.1 times, etc. But the main thing — it’s all the same gas.

What happened suddenly in the gas industry? And nothing happened: according to CDU TEK (the Central dispatching Department of fuel energy complex), in April 2019 natural gas production increased … to 3.5% in annual terms. The result is also good, but not fantastic 16%.

As it is obvious that the data CDU TEK more loyal, analysts doubted the information of Rosstat. Well, Rosstat, realizing what happened “school”, and even what, was forced to withdraw their initial numbers.

Then followed an explanation from the Agency: one of the companies in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district has overestimated the data about gas production. This is how I had to inflate the data of one enterprise, so as to distort all statistics not only in gas production, but around the industrial production of the country! It turned out (don’t laugh!), that just data from the company were not in those units, provided that form. There was also a new figure for gas production in April: its growth amounted to 16%, but only 2.6% in annual terms. Feel the difference, they say.

Guide Rosstat said that the results of the official investigation officers, whose guilt is proved, will be punished.

On this promise I have for the leadership of Rosstat your question: you yourself are not confused by these stunning figures, these “emissions”, when you released the material for official publication? No, not confused? Or has not been made to Rosstat look at the numbers in its own official releases? We will be “scapegoats” to look for?

I don’t understand it, because it is normal and natural: if a figure is clearly knocked out, if it is clear that this simply cannot be, check it, double check! What, it’s not made to work?

Say that the operational review data from Rosstat now will increase the credibility of its numbers. — Are you sure?

I have questions there is more. By the way, has revised data from Rosstat retained, for example, the figure for growth of production of gas condensate: 2.1 times (!) increased its production in April in annual terms. It is not necessary again to recall the data?

The current scandal with the recall data is, if not a culmination, it is certainly a natural result of the current policy in the field of state statistics, Rosstat reassigned when Minekonomrazvitija, depriving it of the remnants of independence; when trying to make him a tool of propaganda by introducing into the practice comments to the Agency about the fact how “right” you should understand the change of digits; when actually forced to correct methodological tools with the aim of obtaining the desired numbers, as in the case with the calculation of the index of real disposable money incomes, and so Ugly all of it. Very. And then, sorry for the banality, it will not help and will only worsen the situation.

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