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Anatomy of a rumor: election fever

Анатомия слухов: время предвыборной лихорадки

The coming year will be decisive for Russia to all the next decade.

The main expected political event of the new year — definition of the configuration of the forthcoming elections to the state Duma. To do this in 2019, has been done. For example, in 2020 the government will be able to start a fight with individuals, of which they will write in the register “Muggle geeks”, that is, foreign agents. The number of political parties and NGOs with the efforts of the Ministry of justice also has declined markedly.

Obviously, will be adjusted under the task of the authorities and electoral legislation. In my own way, but the conclusions from the Moscow elections of 2019 and summer meetings, the authorities still did. By the way, the growth of dissent — is also one of the most likely trends to 2020, with continued decline in living standards of the population.

As for the relationship of various clans within the Russian ruling class, the contradictions between them will be exacerbated. They have something to share — “forage base” in the form of income and taxes with them continues to decline. You need to “divide” the future state Duma and to push there a little more of “their” deputies. In terms of political transit 2021-2024 year lobbying the Duma’s got to live. As fiercely will share and governors.

Another story is the figure of the successor. In case, of course, if President Vladimir Putin decides he needs him. For this positional battles with the fusion in the opposition media tons of dirt began in 2019. At the end of the year at its big press conference the head of state clearly implied that he not only considers the option of successor, but had even identified the most likely candidate. So, at least, most commentators have rushed to decipher the statement that the article of the Constitution about the number of presidential terms we should remove the word “consecutive”.

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Now the Russian basic law does not allow the President to re-elected two times in a row exactly, and with the omission of one term, as did Putin in 2008 — as much as anything. If my health will allow, and there are reliable people like Dmitry Medvedev that after every two terms would come to help.

But if the President’s proposal will be implemented in practice, then become President in Russia will be possible only twice in a lifetime. No successors will not help. And the only people who are directly affected — is Dmitry Medvedev. He was already head of state. And so, if again elect in 2024, in accordance with the amended Constitution, this entry in the Kremlin would be his last. However, the time before the presidential election, and many close to the Kremlin clans do not lose hope to convince Vladimir Putin.

Of course, if you don’t have that rights was the Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who before Christmas was suddenly announced that a presidential election can take place in September 2020, even before the parliamentary. Given the fact that the President’s power is virtually unlimited, in Russia, of course, almost anything.

This New year we can remember how Boris Yeltsin “gave” Russia, Vladimir Putin, saying in a new year address to the Russians his famous “I’m leaving. I did everything I could”. His successor, I must say, complaining about how hard it is to be President, began almost immediately, however, did not prevent him otpahat “like a galley slave” for four presidential terms (with a break for another four years of leadership by the government).

As for Russian foreign policy, then there is unlikely to build an optimistic illusion. The country is in 2020, ruining relationships even with such a close ally as Belarus. By the way, the chances that Russia in the coming year all the same absorb, still remain quite high. However, this will happen rather in a soft “integration” form, after Alexander Lukashenko once again virtually unopposed re-elect the President of their country.

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Ukraine Russia, at least economically, at the end of 2019 most lost, signing as a whole is profitable for Kiev agreement on the transit of Russian gas to the EU. By European Union relations is also not in the least improved. Request for normalization on the part of Europeans, but Russia for its aggressive actions all the time prevents them to persuade their own public opinion so that you slowly begin to ease sanctions and increase trade.

As for the US, they as a new year gift imposed sanctions against the pipeline project “Nord stream-2”, so much so famously that the key for this building contractor, the Swiss company Allseas has stopped the laying of pipes across the Baltic sea. Now the Kremlin is unlikely to quickly revive the project because in Europe wanting to try on the severity of the us sanctions, most likely, not there.

It’s a heavy defeat and the Russian authorities certainly try “asymmetrically” to take revenge on the Americans. So, the confrontation with the West will continue.

And the main in 2020 will be the configuration definition of the Russian Parliament. The authorities are preparing a fully controlled, virtually uncontested elections because the Duma will have to create the basis for a transition of power in 2024. So, with all the potential wealth of the new year on possible events, namely preparations for the parliamentary campaign will indicate what will be (at least, on the idea of the Kremlin) our future, not only until 2024, but until 2030. Because then it will expire the authority of the person who will become President of Russia after four years.

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