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A war of attrition

Война на истощение

At the time, “Kremlin” is pumped in Venezuela under the line of credit into service and through investment of “Rosneft” in excess of $ 17 billion. Now even the most stupid of Putin’s fan obviously, this money Russia lost forever. Despite the fact that 17 billion dollars is more than a trillion rubles, the budget of approximately seventeen regional centers of the Russian Federation. However, Venezuela is not the only disastrous geopolitical project of Putin and company. “Brotherly” Syria, in spite of the produced oil there is another bottomless hole in the budget of the Russian Federation Putin.

It is noteworthy that in 2011, Putin was not going to be “friends” with Assad and spending on the war in Syria, the billions from the Russian budget. Then he said this: “somehow the impression that we have any special relationship with Syria. Once in the Soviet time there was some special relationship. Now it is not. Now Syria rather special relationship with France. We do not have any special interests there: no military bases, no ambitious projects, no multibillion-dollar our investments that we would be there to protect. There’s nothing there”.

That is, if he saw no reason to go in there troops and burn our money there. Although in 2011 it was possible to do minimal effort to stop the war in Syria in the Bud, to be in 2015, when the situation was critical running. This is a clear illustration of the ability of the “Kremlin” to “multi-optional” and to strategic thinking. And even now it never comes on a cool head to count and weigh, then not to flee from Syria in a hurry, bringing losses under continuous bombardment.

On the contrary, while the media reported about their intentions to expand cooperation with Assad’s government, which is to transfer additional real property and water area near the Syrian coast. Despite the fact that from the point of view of political perspectives raises a lot of questions. Allocated to Iran has barely enough money for the maintenance of the family Assad, his security agencies and Shiite mercenaries. Despite the fact that with the help of Russia, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Shiite troops of mercenaries, the Assad managed to stay in power, the majority of Syrians was not with Assad. In his area of responsibility is home to nearly seven million people. While abroad as refugees are eight million, and as much again live on beyond the control of the Damascus area.

What are these uncontrollable Assad Syria? A significant part of the North-Western provinces of Idlib, Aleppo and other Northern areas occupied by the Turks, who create alternative authorities, a new army, police, intelligence services. Erdogan said that the land he never Assad will not return. North-East, including the Eastern shore of the Euphrates river, is controlled by Kurdish militia and local Arab tribes. Logistic and fire support for them has a small military group of the United States. There are major deposits of hydrocarbons and processing facilities of oil and gas, which the Kurdish militia and local residents to Assad and his Iranian sponsors to transfer are not collected.

In this context, to enter into any long-term and costly agreements with the Assad government is extremely impractical. Falling prices for oil and gas has caused serious damage to the main sponsor of the Assad regime in the face of Iran, so the financial and socio-economic situation in Syria has deteriorated. Deteriorated as inter-clan contradictions and the struggle for power within the family of Assad.

Talking seriously about the stability and strength of the situation Assad is not necessary. The situation in the country, in the language of chess, like “zugzwang”, where every subsequent move only makes the situation worse losing player. The agony of the current regime can last several years and will carry to the grave more than a thousand human lives, including the lives of Russian soldiers and “privateers,” but the prospects for its conservation are not seen any. And even more will not save Assad transmission “Kremlin” additional real estate on the Mediterranean coast.

© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.

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