The events were synced with Ukraine Alexander Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis:
Given that the mutiny is already over, we can say that it is unlikely to affect either the situation inside Russia or the country’s status in the world. The same applies to the situation at the front, and the power of the army and its morale. However, at the very least, these events have shown that it is time to pass a law on the status of private military companies.
Based on how this story ended, it is difficult to say who benefited from it. But I suspect that what happened wassynchronized with Ukraine. And if things had gone differently, Kiev would have definitely profited. Of course, over there, they expected everything inside Russia to collapse, so then they could achieve their goals.
It wasn’t Lukashenko who saved Russia Andrey Suzdaltsev, Political expert, Associate Professor of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics of the Higher School of Economics:
These events are a blow to Russia’s image. The world will discuss them and our enemies will say that our country and itsstate structures is unstable. Yes, there is a war going on, and such things can happen –and similar scandals can occur – in many armies. But this is a conflict between a state military structure – the army – and a private military company. The two can’t work together. This should have been evident beforehand. Therefore, this situation clearly did not work in our favor. In the course of combat, there are always sides that are discontent and offended. In such cases, we have to rely on counterintelligence and other structures that solve these issues.
For the army, this is a serious problem. This situation has affected the morale of soldiers on the frontlines, because it’s a question of trust. When you are fighting and you feel like you’re being betrayed – moreover, betrayed by those with whom you shared the same battlefield – it is a major issue.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Defense Minister Valery Gerasimov. © Sputnik / Michael MetzelInternally, the situation can’t be seen as positive. The government and the state apparatus have survived the blow, but some have been unable to cope with the tension. Fortunately, a large-scale betrayal didn’t happen, our country passed the test. But the rebellion demonstrated that our society is divided. Moreover, it’s not that the military campaign is splittingour society, but the manner in which it is being carried out. I believe that everyone will draw their own conclusions from this situation.
Many sides have profited from these events. In Moscow, there are some people who strongly oppose our government. They are ready to accept any government, whether it would be led by Prigozhin or even the Ukrainians. So of course, theywere supportive of Prigozhin. However, I don’t believe we’re talking about any sort of conspiracy. The West was also counting on Prigozhin. Meanwhile, people in Kiev were hysterically joyful, they believed that Putin would be overthrown and that would be the end of it all. But the Ukrainians always get emotional when Russia faces any kind of problems. It’s was like that even before the start of hostilities. When working with Ukrainian sources, I was always astonished by their incredible, irrational hatred towards us.
As for Lukashenko’s efforts in resolving this issue, our leadership carefully hinted that he did not play the key role, even though it was made to look like that was the case. Of course, everyone is grateful that he acted as an intermediary, because there was a problem establishing contact with Prigozhin. He picked up the phone call from Lukashenko, but all the other negotiations were conducted by generals and the people who are authorized by the Russian government and the President of Russia. Lukashenko has taken the plaudits, and this is not the first time he’s done so. Now, news is spreading about how he saved Russia. Of course, this is not even close to the truth of what really happened.
The situation demands a legislative response Sergey Oznobishchev, Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessments
The withdrawal of the Wagner Group from the frontlines has significantly weakened the Russian military. Even though they are now returning to their camps, it is quite obvious that the army’s positions have already been weakened. Just imagine what happens when so many fighters with weapons and equipment leave the front.
There is no rational explanation for these events. Even if you try to stand in Prigozhin’s shoes, it is impossible to explain why it all happened and why it ended like it did. It is unclear why Wagner marched towards Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, and Moscow. I believe that even in many years, we may not find out who profited from this situation. Even those who participated in the events may interpret them differently.
Russian Putin delivers a televised address to the nation after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, called for armed rebellion and reached the southern city of Rostov-on-Don with his troops, in Moscow, Russia. © Sputnik / Pavel BednyakovThe fact that we have survived this test should calm the world down. It is important that the situation was quickly halted, which is definitely to the credit of our authorities.
However, from a legal point of view, it doesn’t look quite right that the criminal case against Prigozhin was initiated and terminated within less than 24 hours. This raises certain questions. Therefore, it is important to provide a lawful response to these actions. In matters of negative conduct against the authorities, our legislation operates quickly – within one day, a bill may be passed in all three readings. I believe that the State Duma will soon adopt measures in response to these events.
The rebels did not receive mass support Sergey Poletaev, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project:
Apparently, the situation with Prigozhin spun out of control and the authorities were aware of it for a long time. For this reason, the Wagner Group was silently moved away from the frontlines somewhat earlier. If the rebel column had marched out directly from the front (and not from their camps in the rear), the problems would have been a lot more severe.
The authorities tried to internally resolve the conflict and offered Wagner a deal with the Ministry of Defense. But, as we’ve seen, the stand-off could not be dealt with quietly.
The rebels’ march on Moscow could have ended in success only in one scenario – if a “fifth column” had met them in the capital and sabotaged the efforts of the resistance. Either things didn’t work out with this fifth column or it didn’t exist, so the rebels hoped to organize a public uprising, which didn’t happen either. One way or another, we managed to escape the worst.
Lukashenko’s mediation shouldn’t be laughed at. Most likely, he made the options clear to Prigozhin: either you die in disgrace, accompanied by the triumphant posts of [disgraced 1990s oligarch Mikhail] Khodorkovsky and the Ukrainian authorities, or you, and your people, get a second chance. It’s good that everything happened behind closed doors.
There’s still a lot of work ahead, but the state survived a major threat. That is the most important thing.
By Christina Sizova , a Moscow-based reporter focused on politics, sociology and international relations
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