Russia has begun a huge problem.
Each of the extended versions of the terrorist attack in the subway of St. Petersburg is a break with the usual Russian situation, where in such cases, the responsibility usually take the militants from the North Caucasus region of Russia.
This writes the private us intelligence company Stratfor.
In the material remind you that the last major attack that terrorists from the North Caucasus is arranged outside of the region, took place in Volgograd in 2013, just a few months before the winter Olympic games in nearby Sochi.
But now fears are growing that after several years of relative calm in the region deteriorating economic situation in Russia may push for the resumption of militancy in the Caucasus.
In the republics of Chechnya and Dagestan that have traditionally been a hotbed of insurgent and military activity, some of the highest unemployment rates in the country, which could contribute to radicalization of local youth. Nevertheless, Moscow is ready to resume the fight with the militants in the North Caucasus in seven years after it declared victory in its brutal war against Chechen separatists, no matter how empty it was.
A new threat in the Caucasus will also serve for the Kremlin argument in favor of a credible security and defense, which is supported by many Russians.
Much more alarming prospect for Moscow is that the culprits could be the homegrown jihadists.
Deprived of the management operatives — new and unknown enemy for the Kremlin. Although the Russian government has suppressed a large part of the radical jihadist materials circulating in social networks, it may not eliminate them completely.
It is also not ready to take that about 5 thousand Russians who left the country mostly to the Caucasus to fight Islamic state, returned to continue the war at home.
For all his experience fighting with the traditional networks of domestic terrorism, the Kremlin is not accustomed to deal with similar threats from abroad. Moreover, if the investigators discover that the attack in St. Petersburg was retaliation for Russia’s actions against the “Islamic state” in Syria, the Kremlin may have to rethink his campaign there.
Initially, Moscow was involved in the conflict, to strengthen the patriotism of the Russian people and rally them to support the government, the self — proclaimed defender of the extremist group. However, over the past year the public enthusiasm about the campaign of the Kremlin in Syria has decreased.
Recent polls showed that the constant of their country’s participation in the Syrian war approve less than half of all Russians, compared with previous figures of 65%. Many Russians would prefer that the Kremlin has focused on problems inside the country and not abroad; some posters during the recent anti-corruption protests talked about it directly.
The attack on Monday in St. Petersburg could serve as another reason for the pressure on the Russian leadership to reconsider its role in the Syrian civil war.
Also, Stratfor analyzed and other guesses about the perpetrators of the attack.
So, for example, speaking on state television Monday evening, he suggested that the explosion — the handiwork of the protesters.
Intelligence I remind you that over the last two weekend in the cities of Russia held large demonstrations against corruption in government. Meanwhile, thousands of truck drivers blocked the movement throughout Russia, including in St. Petersburg, in protest against higher taxes, sometimes coming into confrontation with security forces.
In response to the unrest, the Kremlin began to take tough measures against protests and work to prevent their organization in social networks. If the attack really was the work of Russians who have resorted to terrorism to Express their discontent, the Kremlin is the problem that he faced for almost a century.
Moreover, the transition from the largely non-violent demonstrations to terrorism will give the necessary justification for adopting more stringent laws control dissent and monitor social networking, especially on the eve of the presidential elections in 2018.
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