As Russia’s armed forces conduct an attack designed to cripple Ukraine’s military, delegations from Moscow and Kiev have held two rounds of high-stakes peace talks in Belarus. RT got in contact with Russian experts about when and how the so called “special operation” is likely to draw to a close, what this could mean for Ukraine’s sovereignty, and what lessons can be learned in relation to information warfare.
Moscow’s mission to demilitarize Ukraine
Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya has insisted that, through the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is exercising its right to defend itself from a neighboring country that is seeking to acquire an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky touched on Kiev’s decision to hand over its atomic armaments under the Budapest Memorandum, inked in 1994, in exchange for security guarantees.
Some observers interpreted this as the former Soviet Republic looking to renounce its non-nuclear status.
“As soon as there is an understanding that the Ukrainian authorities are willing to start the demilitarization and denazification process, it’ll be a step towards wrapping up the operation,” Nebenzya claimed.
The Head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), Vasily Kashin, explained to RT that analysis of the military intervention in Ukraine should be based on President Vladimir Putin’s statements.
“We have limited understanding of Russia’s goals here. It seems that we’re talking about moving through all of Ukraine’s territory and changing its political system. I suppose the point is to make Ukraine into something it would’ve become had it been observing the Minsk Agreements – a country with a weak center and strong regions. That would make it impossible for Ukraine to single-mindedly pursue a bloc-oriented foreign policy. Moreover, the nationalists would be cut off from politics. How exactly Russia intends to achieve that is still unclear to me, considering Ukraine is a big country and the Russian forces are limited,” he said.
Moscow has repeatedly insisted that it has no intentions of occupying Ukraine, but is working to demilitarize Ukrainian territory. Commenting on what sort of timescale could be expected to achieve this objective, Kashin referred to the US military’s 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom, which lasted for 21 days.
“It’s likely that Kiev will be first surrounded and then taken, but I don’t think it will be that soon, since the locals were given weapons there. Russia is mostly focused on other parts of the country now. In a week or two, Ukraine’s organized defense will probably crumble, and then there will be the issue of bringing the country under control and establishing a new regime,” the HSE expert claimed.
Valdai Discussion Club program director Oleg Barabanov told RT he believes that the outcome of the intervention in Ukraine will depend on how successful the Russian military operation is, specifically whether or not Kiev’s forces and militia will halt their armed resistance.
“If the operation is going well in the next couple of days and military objectives are achieved, Ukraine will have no choice but to start discussing Russia’s demands on demilitarization. But if the operation starts stalling, the shock of the first few days will dissipate, and Ukraine will be able to shore up its defense. Then this will turn into a prolonged military conflict where negotiations won’t play a decisive role,” he said.
Casualties
The Ukrainian leadership is doing everything in its power to make Russia’s advance through the country “as costly as possible,” Kashin claims.
“Handing out guns to untrained civilians outside the army structure doesn’t make much sense defense-wise. But they will get killed if they try to resist and every such death will lead to several dozen more people getting involved in anti-Russian activities – every person killed has loved ones and friends, after all. This is the reasoning behind the unrelenting defense of Kiev instead of retreating west and holding the line at the border there.”
According to him, “it is a mass sacrifice meant to complicate the situation for Russia and make it hard for it to achieve its goals.” He went as far to claim that “Kiev doesn’t care about its people.”
Barabanov argues that Moscow should have carried out a similar operation in 2014 in the wake of the Maidan, when violent street protests ousted the elected government. The Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic’s (DPR and LPR) subsequently declared their independence from Kiev, which the Kremlin has recently recognized.
“Russian troops try to avoid entering Ukrainian cities, encircling and blocking them instead. It may be right from the tactical standpoint. But the question is whether Zelensky’s government will remain in power by the end of it or some new alternative center of power will emerge. Zelensky and his circle won’t back down that easily, judging by how valiant and organized they are now. This is the key difference from 2014. Back then, the elites and the army were likely to flee, so an eight-year-long delay is a big mistake. I would say there is no chance of Zelensky running away. Even if his actions are contradictory sometimes, he’s doing everything he can,” Barabanov said.
Ukraine’s future
On February 28, Russia and Ukraine had their first round of talks in the Gomel region of Belarus. According to the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, the two parties discussed a wide range of issues during the five-hour summit.
However, some analysts speculate that any negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership could be redundant, since the nation might soon be governed by different officials.