However, it turns out that things weren’t quite that simple. According to the newspaper, Moscow proposed the following plan: Under the Istanbul treaty, Ukraine’s security was to be guaranteed by foreign powers, including the US, UK, China, France, and Russia. These countries would be obliged to protect Kiev if the treaty were violated. But as long as the treaty remained in force, the guarantors would be obliged to “terminate international treaties and agreements that are incompatible with the permanent neutrality of Ukraine,” including any promises of bilateral military assistance.
This approach is quite consistent for Moscow:
Moscow’s understanding of the agreement could be summed up in the following way: Ukraine’s security is guaranteed as long as it complies with the terms of the agreement, the main point of which is its neutral status.
During the negotiations, Arakhamia outlined Ukraine’s version. Within three days of a potential outbreak of war, aggression, a military operation, or any disguised, hybrid war against Ukraine, the guarantor countries would have to hold consultations, following which they would be legally obliged to provide Ukraine with military assistance – particularly by supplying weapons and establishing a no-fly zone.
Ukraine officially said that “this mechanism is even clearer than in Article 5 of NATO, which envisages no limits as regards the timing of consultations.” In other words, in the spring of 2022, Ukraine shouted far and wide that it would sign a treaty that would be more binding than NATO’s promise to members .
This approach is quite consistent for Kiev, which, since the mid-2000s, has longed to get under the “umbrella” of Western military guarantees. In fact, Ukraine strived to join NATO so much that it even made an amendment to its constitution, officially declaring NATO accession to be the country’s main objective.
Kiev’s vision of the agreement implied that the country’s security must be guaranteed by NATO leaders in any circumstances, regardless of Ukraine’s actions.
According to Arakhamia, Boris Johnson then came to Ukraine, told Zelensky “let’s just fight,” and that’s how war started. The situation was further fueled by the Bucha provocation. (By the way, Johnson himself has called the Ukrainian version of events “total nonsense and Russian propaganda.” )
So, what really happened in April 2022? Apparently, upon arriving in Kiev, Johnson told Zelensky (speaking on behalf of the UK, US, and France) something along the lines of: ‘You can sign anything you want, but we will not sign anything and we are not ready to provide any guarantees, especially considering your requirements and wording.
‘The decision is yours, Mr. Zelensky. If you choose war, we will support you with money and weapons; if you choose peace, you will be left on your own with Putin.’
This matches the West’s subsequent actions and decisions, since so far, no one in the West has taken on any legal obligations in regard to Ukraine. Even the agreements on military assistance concluded this spring are nothing more than a set of declarations which are convenient for the West. Here’s the collective stance of Western leaders: NATO is not ready to provide any guarantees to Ukraine and will not sign any agreements.
If all this is indeed true (and the facts seem to leave no room for doubt), then it was Zelensky who made the fatal decision to stop negotiations. And while the West pushed him to this decision, its leaders also fell into the trap of believing that the conflict could be settled on the battlefield.
At some point, instead of following a rational course, Western elites allowed their emotions to get the better of them. Zelensky convinced them that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could defeat Russia, and they believed this to such an extent that they were willing to risk their political standing and even the future of the entire current liberal world order.
All this has led the West to a decisive fork in the road: What to do if Ukraine loses? Should Western leaders follow the example of Johnson and leave Ukraine alone with Moscow, or should they start a big war with Russia?
Either way, the path that they chose will influence the entire course of world history.
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