In the article, is a Supplement to the author’s interpretation of the Apocalypse, first set out the close relationship of the rhythm of history, opened by the author on the basis of the interpretation of the Apocalypse, with the cycles of the economic dynamics.
Knowledge of the man of cyclicity of the universe and of human life.
The cyclical nature of human life, and the whole of nature is obvious, not only anciently attested experience of mankind, but also governing his whole practice.
Every calendar in General, and “production calendar” (agricultural, etc.), in particular, is already a form of reflection and expression of cyclicity. Astrology also originated as a form of reflection and expression of the circle of life of people, regulated “natural” factors.
Now, the mankind knows many cycles, ranging from solar cycles to the cycles of the metabolism of living organisms, tissues and cells, as well as the many rhythms of life of all inanimate and all living things.
Political economy since its inception as one of the main practical problems always had and has a two-fold task: first, the knowledge of economic cycles and its laws, and secondly, forecasting the future economic dynamics on the basis of knowledge gained by solving the first part of this task.
Therefore, the periodicity (rhythm) of the story, symbolically expressed in the revelation, as outlined by the author in the article “What is coming soon in Russia? (interpretation of the Apocalypse)”, fits into this General number and, in any case, can not be perceived as “religious nonsense” people, at least minimally attached to human cognition.
If someone doesn’t know something (and every man does not know many things) and doesn’t understand that, being a man of adequate and sane, he had “the threshold” does not perceive “hostility” and certainly doesn’t qualify as “nonsense” what he doesn’t understand, because that understanding is not given to him.
Nothing but only “gentlemen of Tashkent” (Saltykov-Shchedrin) the essence of “now born, and, moreover, absolutely empty” people, about whom, “as on a stone wall, breaks the principle of sanity”. A prototype of the “gentlemen of Tashkent”, by Saltykov-Shchedrin, is Mitrofan of “Ignoramus” Fonvizin.
As sums up Mikhail Evgrafovich in the “Masters of the Tashkent”, “for him there is neither experience nor tradition, nor the ability to make any inferences, because every real minute of his life without a trace is displaced following a minute”.
“The educational mission of this ideal to him, it is his providential purpose. With bottle in hand, with invincible appetite in the stomach, he is torn from corner to corner, promising to bring to a common denominator (what he knows) and forgetting that first and foremost he must himself lead to the denominator of the enlightenment…”
“Our so-called conservatives are the spenders the advantage. The universe seems filled with Skoroposlushnitsa elements, consisting of plots of sedition and treason. All of this must, of course, to end.
But to whom to address? Who will take care of the difficult obligation to fight against the wiles necessitatibus and sedition nekrahmalistye? Who, besides him, that forever talented and always ready with a person for whom there is not even a moving object and diligence, and there is only the movement and the sense of duty? He swooped down, raided, injury – what injury? – he is not even interested in and find out…
Times more complicated. Every year the struggle for life becomes more difficult for empirical and ignorant. But Mitrofans do not lose heart. They continue to think that their career has just begun and that the universe is nothing like an unclaimed space that they will still have to fill their exploits”.
Economic cycles Kitchin and Juglar.
Joseph Kitchin to the beginning of 1920-ies revealed short-term cycles are fluctuations in economic conditions (the dynamics of changes in prices, demand and supply under the influence of all factors influencing prices, supply and demand). The duration of this cycle himself Kitchin was determined on average in 3-4 years. However, the economic theory of “neoclassical synthesis” 1920-ies it is considered that Kitchin cycles have an average duration of 2-3 years, though sufficient justification from that opinion no.
The average duration of the cycle Kitchin equal to about 3 years or slightly less, is consistent with the two small “1,4-summer” periods (cycles) of the deployment of history in the rhythms, symbolically shown by Revelation.
Cycles Kitchin on the surface of economic life are expressed in a change in the value of working capital, embodied in the commodity reserves, due to changes in measures of capacity utilization and volume of commodity stocks in response to price fluctuations, supply and demand. The existence of such cycles, Kitchin explained the global oscillations of the mass of gold involved in commodity-money circulation.
In fact, Kitchin explained the existence of short-term cycles in prices, demand and supply fluctuations in the quantity of money in circulation in the world market and, consequently, fluctuations in the level of inflation/deflation as a result of the inflow/outflow of money and zooming prices, caused by these fluctuations in the quantity of money in circulation.
The phenomenology of economic life to give a more fundamental explanation of the nature of short term cycles than given by Kitchiner, in principle, not capable of. There is no doubt that the cycles of the market, open by Kitchenin the study of economic dynamics of developed commodity production in the conditions of free circulation of goods a universal equivalent that is performing a public function of money “working” in these conditions.
After withdrawal of money from circulation and their total replacement simulacra of money this cycle Kitchen, like every other economic cycle, although it was generally maintained, but significantly modificeres, including the timing, because now there is not a relatively free exchange of goods, and the distribution of goods in the first place.
Secondly, now there is a “manual control” simulacra prices and, consequently, their scale and all the other proportions in the economy instead of present first a relatively free market self-regulation of their (and their prices scale, all of the proportions in the economy) on the basis of the circulation of money.
And, thirdly, the consumption (and productive consumption and consumptive production) is now essentially determined by government, quasi-government and financial institutions, serving the interests of extended reproduction of financial capital, instead of their definition in the advantage of market self-regulation demand production.
The medium or “investment” cycle, first described by clément Juglares in the monograph of 1862, and received from him his name, characterizes the relationship between the fluctuations in the level of load on existing capacities, on the one hand, and fluctuations in levels of investment in active elements of fixed capital, on the other hand. Its average duration, according to Juglar and his followers, ranging from 6-8 years old to 9-12 years.
Each investment cycle, according to the study of Juglar, in its development goes through “four distinct phases”: the crisis or contraction, stagnation or depression; revival or expansion; rise or economic growth. The duration of the investment cycle Juglar under different conditions or at two, or three, or four times the duration of the cycle Kitchen.
The cycle time of Juglar could be correlated with the duration of the average “5.6-year” cycle of history, according to the author’s interpretation of Revelation, being (on average) not only equal to one or two average “5.6-year” cycles, but including four “distinct phases”.
Characteristics of the phases of the cycle of Juglar if you want each of them to rate strictly on how it appears on the surface of social life, resulting in events given the social consciousness of the masses in General, quite accurately can be specified with the symbols of Revelation. Namely: “the revival or expansion” (output “as the winner to win”) is the “white horse”. “Rise or economic growth” (expansion, including the capture of new markets) is “the horse is red”.
With the “crisis” seems to be the situation is much more complicated and not as straightforward as with the two phases. However, the “crisis” comes not in the moment when a limit is reached “extensions” and after a period of functioning at the highest level “rise”. In other words, this is not the peak, not the peak and the plateau, where for some time there are “fluctuations” near the “highest point” without the opportunity for further expansion, but not yet lost desire and not leaving attempts for such an extension. Because of this “overproduction” becomes inevitable “compression”, which begins with “collapse”, but is not limited to them, and results in a change in all proportions (price and scale, first of all, the reallocation of resources and people in social units and types of production). This entire period of operation at the appropriate “plateau” of higher in these conditions the level of economic activity, “collapse” (“crisis”) and then change all of the proportions of social production — this is the “black horse”, especially since major economic crises occurred during the “black horse”.
The process of “compression” that began in the previous period, and must inevitably turns into “stagnation, or depression” with all its economic, social and political companions and consequences — this is, without a doubt, “the pale horse” even without further clarification.
In fact, the economic cycle of Juglar is an average cycle complete revolution of the active elements of fixed capital (consisting processimage capital). According to the research of Gugler presented in the monograph, the active elements of fixed capital in the course of the 19th century in various industries to make a complete revolution within an average of two, three or four cycles of market conditions (cycles Kitchin).
But Juglar such a conclusion could not yet though, because the cyclical market has been opened by Kitchiner more than half a century later than Juglar opened its “investment” cycles.
However, Juglar, based on statistical and other empirical evidence showed that medium-term cycles — the result of changes in secondary market prices of goods (full production costs), the conditions of the credit and monetary circulation, inter-branch flow of capital and imbalances between the funds of labor caused by capital investment in them.
Economic cycles, Kuznets and Kondratieff.
In 1930, American economist (the future Nobel prize winner) Simon Kuznets was open to economic cycles (rhythms) lasting approximately 15-25 years each, which by name are called Kuznets cycles. During each of these cycles there is a massive update of the core technologies in all sectors of the economy, as well as new construction, modernization and reconstruction of industrial and other commercial buildings (real estate), engineering and transport infrastructure. The latter, namely building, civil construction and infrastructure including means of communication, Marx refers to the General conditions of production.
No coincidence that a number of researchers the rhythms of a Blacksmith is being considered as the technology and infrastructure, and not any other cycles. In this regard, there are also proposals to consider these cycles as “the third harmonic of the Kondratieff wave” (which will be discussed further). Sam S. Smith tied them to open cycles with the population growth due to influx of immigrants in the United States and changes in the construction, describing them as “demographic” or “building” cycles.
In 1961 M. Abramowitz correlated with each of the cycles of a Blacksmith known date of the beginning of protracted economic downturn in the United States prior to 1930, namely: 1815; 1836; 1853; 1873; 1882; 1892; 1907; 1920 and 1929. The situation is similar with all other indicators related to work and production, which, again, showed Abramowitz in 1961. However, no strict periodicity of cycles of the Blacksmith and the underlying factors Abramowitz, however, as Smith and other researchers, to establish and could not.
At present, with cycles of a Blacksmith, as evidenced by economic research specialists, the US and Japan, agree rather well “large price cycles” in real estate, observed in Japan, 1980-2000, the duration of the so-called “big half” of rising prices and their simulacra in the United States throughout the 20th century. Why do these cycles are often referred to as rhythms, but as their average duration modern economists take 15-20 years.
And even though economists almost do not speak, other than conjecture “about the third harmonic of Kondratieff waves”, in between cycles of a Blacksmith and all other economic cycles there is a fairly close relationship. If the connection with the “Kondratieff wave” assumptions about the relationship there, it’s relative to the cycles of Juglar — no.
But what is the average length of the two (four) cycles of Juglar? If you put the minimum (maximum) the approximate time allocated by Juglares and subsequent economists, we get 12 (24) years and 24 (48) for four cycles of Juglar.
15-25 years is the average cycle length of a Blacksmith according to the findings of Smith, although according Abramovits there were cycles and 13, 10 and 9 years, which is also consistent with the duration of cycles of Juglar. The only question always is, how many cycles of Juglar was inside of this specific cycle of a Blacksmith.
If we, mindful of when cycles of Juglar with the symbols of Revelation, look at the cycles of a Blacksmith from this point of view, will receive long-term (for training of economists) cycle, with a duration of about or slightly more than 22 years. Turns out the “22-year” cycle, which includes four medium-term “5.6-year” period, the duration of each of which is approximately equal to the average cycle length of Juglar taken at the bottom (minimum) the border of this duration.
However, this does not mean that the loop is identical to that of a Blacksmith “22-year” cycle of history, according to the author’s interpretation of Revelation, nor that their terms are the same — for such conclusions there is no reason.
Moreover, when considering the cycle of Juglar we noted as a coincidence and not a coincidence of the cycle duration of Juglar with duration, start and end dates medium-term “5.6-year” period of history, as well as which phase or small the company is taken as the initial point of reference in each case.
From misunderstandings of the substance of the teachings of Marx and radical revolution in social reproduction that occurred as a result of withdrawal of money from economy, and their total replacement simulacra of money, the inevitable is almost irresistible to economists, sociologists, historians and political analysts of the difficulty of correlating economic cycles of Juglar and Blacksmith.
And the correlation of these cycles with the Revelation of any of them at all, however — it is generally beyond their “discursive formation”, that is not given to them all the word “all”.
And therefore the author’s interpretation of the Apocalypse, if not rejected out of hand, at least qualifies as something irrational going on Department “transpersonal”, etc. psychology and psychotherapy, because the subject of the science, but psychology in General and psychotherapy in particular, by definition, is only rational.
But because economists believe that there is a close connection of “long waves” Kondratyev (40-55 years) with cycles of Juglar (6-12 years), the extent and now we may well admit that the whole chain of relationships between all economic cycles has closed.
“Long waves” N. D. Kondratyev was opened only a few years before S. Smith opened his own cycle, but the domain of the scientific world the discovery of Kondratieff became only the second half of 1920-ies. The factors identified by each of them as contributing to the corresponding cycle, are largely identical, but each of them focuses on different aspects of the different context and scale of economic dynamics. Smith focused on the economic dynamics of the United States, while the Kondratiev — global (global) economic dynamics in its refraction in the dynamics of individual national economies.
With regard to “long waves” Kondratyev in the economy, according to the views of the Kondratieff and his followers, in economic history, they are relevant to the period that started the first industrial revolution.
Behind by Kondratyev since in economic Sciences next, allocate these 5 “long waves” (cycles) Kondratieff, in which the approximate dates of the beginning and the end of the “long waves” (cycles) Kondratieff indicated that the “lows” of the respective levels of development of the world economy:
1 cycle (the textile factory, start of industrial use of coal) — from 1800-1803 to 1841-43 years — about 45-55 years with regard to incubation period 1790-1800 years.
2 cycle (coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine) — from 1844-51 to 1890-96 years — about 46-55 years.
3 cycle (heavy mechanical engineering, power engineering, inorganic chemistry, steel manufacturing and electric motors) — with 1891-96 to the years 1945-47 approximately 51-54 years
4 cycle (production of cars and other machinery, the development of internal combustion engines, chemical industry, petroleum refining, mass production of consumer goods) — from 1945-47 to 1981-83 he was approximately 36 years.
5 cycle (development of electronics, computer, laser and telecommunications equipment and robotics) — from 1981-83 to about 2018-2021 years (the consensus forecast) is approximately 37-38 years.
Kondrat’ev in the first half of the 1920s publicly stated only on the first two “long waves” and the probability of the third “long wave” before the First World war, which interrupted the cycle. In the second half of the 1920s, Kondratiev deepened their understanding about the open them cycles, developing “Economic statics and economic dynamics”, but in 1930 he was arrested “for sabotaging the mass collectivization” and shot in 1938.
Since most Kondratyev discovered only the first two “long waves” and the third hypothesis regarding the “long wave”, so far after the end of the 20th – early 21st century among economists began differences regarding the Dating and duration of the 3rd and subsequent “long waves” until the complete denial of their presence in the 20th century.
For example, L. Grinin and A. Korotayev through teamwork, “the Global crisis in retrospect. A brief history of upswings and crises from Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. Moscow: Librokom/URSS, 2009” justify the conclusion that, after a Long Depression (1896), actually “Kondratieff waves” in the economy no longer exists.
Instead, according to Grinin and Korotaeva, have a seat, “postcontingency wave” of Dating are different from “conventional”. Namely: 3 cycle lasted roughly from 1890-1896 to 1939-1950 years; 4 – cycle- from 1939-1950 to 1984-1991; 4 cycle began in the years 1984-1991, which by 2009 has not yet ended and can last up to 2023-2033 (in the above paper, Grinin, and Korotayev, however, such a forecast is not given, leaving the question open).
In fact, “long waves” (cycles) Kondratieff are an expression of the cyclical nature of transformation, first of all, the entire technical basis of social production on the basis of technology, has become the base technology for the whole of social production.
We are talking about cyclic conversion process the entire process of the organization of the labor process in all sectors of production through mass technological innovations due to the new generation of interrelated technologies, first and foremost.
Then it comes, because it follows from the first, mass replacement of the means of labor (machines, machinery, process units, tools, etc.) and updating of the objects of labor (new materials and new raw materials). And this requires massive training and assigning work to employees with a new (updated) qualifications, relevant new technologies. And finally, it changes the qualitative and quantitative characteristics, as well as the productive force of labour, which is widely used in social production.
But the transformation of the technical basis of public production is only one side of the coin. The other side is a necessary and inevitable cyclical redistribution of the means of production and of the people themselves in social units of production and types of production, including not only the production of material wealth, but also reproduction of the person and all his companies.
That is why the “long waves” in the economy is a manifestation of all of cyclicity of the historical process of the regular transformations of the entire social production in its entirety due to cyclic transformations of its technical basis. But on the aggregate of some specific reasons due to which the ideological, social, political and economic factors happened, happens and will happen to transform the technical basis of all social production — these questions and answers are beyond “the subject of the theory of long waves in the economy.”
However, the Kondrat’ev and his followers considered these “long waves” exclusively and only from the point of view of the cyclical transformation of the economy (social production) due to the cyclic transformations, it (the economy) technical basis firstly. And, secondly, from the point of view of how these processes depend on the accumulation and distribution of capital, appearing in the economic dynamics of long periods of time in violation and the restoration of macroeconomic balances during these periods.
No other point of view, which would consider these “long waves”, they didn’t have another point of view for them ideologically and politically was possible, and therefore it was not not.
But let us return to the “long waves” Kondratyev and their duration. Kondrat’ev, distinguished “wave upward” and “downward wave” within each “long wave” (cycle), the duration of which varied, but collectively they gave the total duration of the entire “long wave”. At the same time, “long waves” Kondratyev included in the so-called “secular trends” of the economy, which also differ as “ascending” and “descending”.
Thus, nothing prevents the conclusion that every two “long waves” Kondratyev form together a single “secular trend” — either “ascending” or “descending”. But what in this case, the duration of the “secular trend”? About 90 years — an average of about 45 years of duration each of the two “long waves” Kondratyev.
Hence it becomes clear that there is nothing “supernatural” in that “century cycle,” derived by the author as a result of the interpretation of Revelation has a duration of about 90 years (slightly less in reality).
Another thing is that the beginning and end of flow of time respectively, “90-year” cycle of history, extracted by the author on the basis of the interpretation of Revelation, and “secular trend” that includes two “long waves” Kondratyev, not the same — they have a systematic offset, at least in part of the 20th century.
However, the corresponding offset relative to the periods of history displayed by the author on the basis of the interpretation of Revelation, and of all other economic cycles — are all interrelated and due to understandable rational factors. But this is subject to very different articles.
Vasiliev Vladimir, 4 January 2020.
The primary publication is available at: http://www.dal.by/news/178/04-01-20-4/
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