Analysts said that what will happen with the dollar and wages to fall.
In July-September, the Ukrainians expect the decline of the average salaries and reduction of public debt of Ukraine. This will continue to increase prices and unemployment.
Prices. In the third quarter, analysts expect a rise in prices on 5 – of 13.2% compared to the second quarter of 2017, which means that infl Asia will accelerate. Yet, according to the state statistics service, last month rose 3.3%.
According to the head of information-analytical center Forex club in Ukraine Nikolay Ivchenko, in September prices will rise faster than in other months of the period: “September is the beginning of a new school year, the resumption of active business season. I wish inflation was below 13% to improved conditions for doing business but probably inflation will decline until next year.”
The acceleration of price growth in September, says economist Ivan Nikitchenko, but he’s more optimistic — for the first three quarters inflation will be 7%.
Course. Head of the Secretariat of the Council of entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers Andrei Zablovsky believes that the exchange rate at the end of III quarter will be 26,5 – 27 hryvnia to the dollar (now — 26 UAH). “The pressure on the foreign exchange market in this period may increase due to the seasonal increase in demand at currency and, as a consequence, activation of speculators,” he says.
In turn, the Director of energy programmes of NASU Valentyn Zemlyansky believes that the hryvnia could fall to 27.5 UAH per dollar. “There are no prerequisites for the strengthening of the national currency. And the growth in the volume of purchases of energy carriers, the payment of external borrowing by a decline in exports can lead to weakening of the hryvnia,” — he said.
Salaries. Here the opinions of the experts diverged is the range of the average salary of their estimated 6 to 7 thousand UAH, on average, 6550 UAH, which is almost 300 UAH less than in the second quarter. However, Andrew Zablovsky believes that the increase in business activity in the country and a partial increase in wages in the corporate and gassector will lead to the fact that the average salary in the country will rise to 7 thousand UAH. The analyst of Agency “MPP Consulting” Paul Miller agree with this, but associates the wage growth with the shadows.
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