The cost of invading Crimea would be too high for Kiev, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Aleksey Arestovich, said this week. The operation would likely lead to hundreds of thousands of casualties, he said, speaking to Russian journalist Yulia Latynina.
There are “few prospects” of seizing the Crimean Peninsula through military means, Arestovich said, when discussing the options remaining to Kiev in its ongoing conflict with Moscow. “What will be the cost? Extermination of 200,000 of the adult male population?” he added, referring to the number of soldiers Ukraine would be likely to lose. Ukraine’s economy might also be “totally destroyed” in the process, he warned.
Kiev is already “totally dependent” on its Western backers, the former presidential adviser admitted. Should the US and its allies stop supplying Ukrainian troops with weapons, they would not only be unable to take back territories that had joined Russia, but would also struggle to defend their current positions, he said.
Arestovich also openly charged that Washington and its allies were pursuing their own interests in the conflict. “Let’s be honest: our foreign policy goals in this war contrast sharply with the foreign policy goals of our sponsors and backers,” he said, adding that the West was willing to sacrifice Ukraine’s territory and lives of its people to achieve the desired outcome.
Ukraine can now only influence the Western leaders at an “emotional” level, the former presidential adviser said, adding that Kiev should have focused on building up its own sovereignty instead. “We need relations… based on real profits. That’s the only thing they [the West] understand,” he added. Arestovich also said that “immoral policies… and inability to take serious decisions” are the “major weakness of the West.”
Still, Ukraine cannot just abandon its Western backers and pursue its own goals “at any cost,” the former adviser insisted, adding that that would be a “dead end” for Kiev. The only consolation would be the prospect of joining NATO in exchange for peace with Russia.
“Stop the war and join NATO? Many people would say it is a historical chance,” the former presidential confidant said. He also described NATO guarantees in exchange for consenting to a peace with Russia along the current contact line as a “fairly good deal.” According to Arestovich, such an agreement would also likely require the West to lift some of its anti-Russian sanctions to convince Moscow to agree to such terms.
His remarks come amid the much-touted Ukrainian summer offensive, which has failed to bring about significant changes on the battlefield almost a month and a half after it was launched. Ukrainian troops have suffered heavy losses, including in Western-supplied heavy armor, during their largely unsuccessful attacks on the Russian defenses. According to Western media, Kiev’s backers have also been frustrated over the slow pace of the operation.
Moscow has repeatedly signaled it was ready for peace talks with Ukraine. It has also blamed Kiev for the lack of progress in the diplomatic field, citing a decree signed last year by Zelensky that prohibits talks for as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin remains in power.
Kiev put forth its own peace plan demanding Russia withdraw its troops from all the territories within Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Moscow has rejected the proposal, calling it detached from reality.
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