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Coronaries 2020: Forecasts of “black August” begin to come true

Коронокризис-2020: Прогнозы "черного августа" начинают сбываться

The index of the Moscow stock exchange exceeded 3 thousand points. For a person uninitiated, this news may not seem so important. But this is not just psychologically important mark, but also an indicator that the Russian stock market have not achieved since February, when it started to collapse.

However, other news is not allowed to share the unconditional optimism of some experts. Stocks in Russia are growing, but so does the ruble: so, today, the dollar rose to 73.67 ruble and Euro to ruble 87,28. And it can also be considered “assault” multi-month peaks. Projections for “black August” is partly true.

That will happen in the domestic market and what is more in today’s news — optimism or pessimism — “Free press” talked to our regular experts.

When a new wave of a pandemic, oil prices would fall again

Private investor, founder of IPO-Club Peter Gulin explains that stocks — not the most objective indicator of the overall economic situation in the country and focus on them with great reservations.

“SP”: — Can we assume that the index of Masuri increased from the beginning of the year in half, the rate of recovery in the real economy?

Often the state of the financial markets does not reflect the real situation in the economy. Now, I think this is the case.

Let’s deal with the meaning of the index. First, the index Masuri now in the red relative to the January highs, while the us SNP500 and the Nasdaq has updated their overall record.

Secondly, it should be understood that in the calculation of the index Mosberg includes only the 50 largest companies of Russia, of which about half is the oil and gas industry, 18% – banking and financial sector and about 15% metals and mining. Thus we can say that the total capitalization of the companies in these sectors are almost recovered. A third reason for the recovery index Masuri may be the influx of millions of new unskilled investors to which access to most tools on the global markets closed.

“SP”: — You talked about the recovery of the capitalization of large companies. But while Russian officials claim that the recovery of the Russian economy as a whole will take another year and a half. Where is the logic?

— Cause of the recovery of the capitalization of big companies is obvious. This recovery in oil prices and reaching a historical high value metals — gold, copper, silver.

But does it mean a stable economic situation in the country? The answer is no!

Because the price of oil and gas, such as changeable as the mood of the girls, and when the second wave of “coronaries” they can again stroll down to the lowest levels.

“SP”: — That is, to rejoice too early?

The recovery of prices for oil and gas gives us temporary confidence, but it is understood that the situation with prices is unstable. High prices for precious metals, in my opinion, will be saved soon and it is a positive factor for the stability of our economy. Thus, the condition index Mosberg cannot serve as a complete indicator of the state of Affairs in the Russian economy.

“SP”: — And the massive influx in exchange for new investors — can we consider it a sign of the increasing level of economic knowledge of the Russians?

— It’s no secret that the current Deposit rate banks do not excite clients and they are looking for alternative investment instruments.

Open data at the beginning of 2020, the number of accounts on Masuria doubled compared to last year, and in April and may registered more than 300 thousand new clients.

The answer to the question that I would buy new investors, which access to most tools on the global markets closed, is obvious, — the “blue chips” in Russia and understood by all commodities — gold, oil, gas, platinum.

Russian economy will still show a decrease in 2020

A leading analyst of the financial company Forex Optimum Ivan kapustyasky sure that “respite” in the stock markets is temporary, as investors were waiting for the possible start of a second wave of the pandemic.

— This week, the external background has improved compared to last. The world’s financial markets, starting Monday, is actively growing. For example, technically, the index Mosuri will continue the growth to the next target of 3140 and the above — said kapustyasky.

“SP”: — what are investors ‘ optimism? At first glance, the reasons for him not so much.

— Optimism is primarily associated with the fact that the negotiations between Democrats and Republicans about the new stimulus package could be completed on Friday. Some officials said they considered the 7 August deadline for compromise or termination of negotiations.

If the parties cannot come to an agreement, the White house is considering to extend unemployment benefits and suspend collection of taxes by presidential decree that could speed up the process of harmonizing economic stimulus program. Accordingly, this course will somehow support the economy.

At the same time, there remain risks associated with the ongoing pandemic of mers and the deterioration of relations between China and the United States. Europe’s growing fears about the second wave of the pandemic. The speed of propagation of the coronavirus in the United States remains below the peak of July. These factors for a long time have a negative impact on the markets.

“SP”: — the Situation in the European Union or the United States, of course, is putting pressure on Russia. But we’ve got a mass and its own structural problems, agree

— I think the Russian economy will gradually continue to grow, but at the end of the year will show a decline. The most pessimistic projections suggest a fall in GDP to 12%. What exactly will the decline in GDP, you are right, depends on many factors, including from oil prices, and measures to support business and consumers.

On a more global support than it is now, can not count. However, oil may continue to rise. Until the end of the year, Brent crude could be closer to $ 50-55 dollars per barrel. The reasons for this are transaction OPEC+, and a gradual recovery of the global economy, and therefore the growth of demand for oil.

Recovery of GDP to the level of 2019 in the most optimistic scenario possible by the end of 2021. However, this process may take considerably more time.

© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.

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