“Today we hold in our hands the future of independent Belarus. The country we will not give up…”
Alexander Lukashenko, 04.08.2020
CEC Chairman of Belarus Lidia Yermoshina on the evening of 9 August 2020, announced the victory of A. Lukashenko at the presidential election of 2020: for A. Lukashenko – 81% of votes for S. Tikhanovski only 11%. The idea is that in the evening on voting day, the streets and squares of the Belarusian capital was to be crowded with jubilant supporters of A. Lukashenko. Instead, however, clashes with the protesters. Belarus slowly but inexorably seems to have included in the civil war.
So, the campaign ended more or less predictable. The announcement of results by the CEC, the rejection of the results of the Belarusian electorate, the street protests. Of course, on the background of these events we have a few questions:
– What was that about?
– Why A. Lukashenko 81% electoral support?
– Why Moscow has recognized the election results?
– What are the protests?
History: 67 year in the Greek Olympia, were part of the Roman Empire under the name of the province of Achaia, hosted the Olympic elections. Just at this time the Emperor Nero, who considered himself a consummate actor, singer and athlete, and generally possessing a variety of talents. For the sake of the Emperor to the rules of the Olympic games introduced a musical competition that Nero definitely won. But the Emperor wanted to win the wreath of the winner in the most prestigious competitions in races on chariots. Given that everything should be fair and transparent, in the chariot of Nero harnessed two provisions of the rules of competition horses, and ten. The racetrack, of course, supported the correction of the sports democracy. Then tragedy struck. On the turn Nero, malicious rumors, were pretty drunk, flew out of the chariot, but Zeus did not let him die, the Emperor escaped with bruises. Dismal a crowd of slaves, picked up a drunken Nero, and on his shoulders brought him to the finish line. So the Roman Emperor was awarded an olive wreath for the winner. However, this athletic triumph helped Nero, and still bore the title of “Father of the Fatherland”, did not help him to retain power. And what the athlete was!
What was that about?
The author of these lines remembers all the previous presidential campaign in Belarus. The first did not participate, but watched intently. In the second and third took active part, the rest of the campaign, for objective reasons, only watched, noting how changing protests, what is the difference between a new wave of activists who start the fight against the regime of A. Lukashenko from the previous one.
But each time had to remind that in Belarus there is a classic authoritarian regime, whose leader would sit for life, and try to topple him through democratic procedures (the choice) is fundamentally impossible. With the same success can be attributed to the murderer and felon rules of etiquette.
Somehow, to repeat once the same has repeatedly confirmed the political truth: “elections In Belarus, there can be.” Instead they have MS Yermoshina, which was announced on 9 August that “the duty of the applicant is, in principle, to accept it (defeat – A. S.) to take, to congratulate…” (https://lenta.ru/news/2020/08/09/proigr/). It should be noted the kindness of the Chairman of the CEC of Belarus, as it’s not added to the “accept” requirement for all the people to kneel. But could not. But Yarmoshyna told to us the atmosphere of governmental circles, where laugh at this silly and naive “folk”, collect signatures, waveraider them carefully, considering the ratings and the calling to go vote for the person who then produces against its own people thousands of punishers.
However, every five years a new generation of naive “fighters” begins to prepare for elections as if they live in a democratic country polling stations where not robbed its citizens. As a result, these activists once again provide legitimacy for the next term of Alexander Lukashenko. And so will the seventh period and eighth, and then with the first period of the eldest son, second term senior, first term Junior, etc.
To prepare the elections in Belarus means one thing – to prolong the dominance of the ruling dynasty, which clung to power with a death grip. In this election A. Lukashenko’s honestly twice admitted that he power to anyone and never give up. He knows his people, and he is confident of their impunity as the people who serve this regime.
Why does A. Lukashenko 81% electoral support?
Indeed, presented to L. Yarmoshyna, the numbers of electoral support unprecedented. Based on data from alternative antipolo and even predominance in the queue before precincts voters with white bands, can you say that Lukashenko has attributed at least 50% of the vote. Moreover, the annotation was done defiantly, brazenly, with impunity. One might feel that if the Belarusian President wrote myself with the help of L. Yarmoshyna, 55-58%, the level of protests would be reduced by half.
But apparently in this case played a character of the Belarusian President ready to put the whole nation on her knees to show off on it, to gloat and to taunt: “what, vote? Well, what did it get you? I here eternal and unchangeable”. Is the practice of the overseers over the slaves with Brazilian plantations in the 19th century. No illusions, for A. Lukashenko to the Belarusian people is a real slave. Although the Belarusian people have repeatedly admitted that he is not Belarusian.
But it should be recalled that 81% of electoral support is almost all the people of the Republic of Belarus, as the other 19% is a remnant from older people who no longer vote, are disabled sitting at home and who are not interested in politics, SPUSA citizens and drug addicts, etc. Talking about 81% of support for A. Lukashenko, L. Yarmoshyna claims that all the polls Belarus behind Lukashenko.
In other words, if the citizens of Russia who believe in the victory of A. Lukashenko arrives in Minsk, comes to town and sees the crowds of people at bus stops, customers entering and exiting stores, young people and pensioners, walking in the parks, all these people, literally all, are staunch supporters of A. Lukashenko. It remains only to go and congratulate the citizens of Belarus with the sixth term irremovable Belarusian President. And here I detected a catastrophic error with a minimum of scandal… So where are the voters of A. Lukashenko.
So on August 9, the people came, in part not only to protest but to find that the people of Belarus, who voted for A. Lukashenko. But that’s only throughout the country outside of this strange and virtual Pro-Lukashenka Belarusian people did not any one person. To date, Belarus has not found a single supporter of A. Lukashenko minus officials and security forces. Even Yarmoshyna not left a portrait of life President. In the end, well, at least someone from the voter on the balcony hung a portrait of the President. It is clear that fear or at all.
The result is that the Belarusian authorities live in a separate Belarus, where they all vote, and the people in his Republic, where it is impossible to find voters Lukashenko. Who is to blame in this situation? Ordinary impunity of the Belarusian authorities.
Why Moscow has recognized the election results?
For the vast majority of citizens of Belarus greetings A. Lukashenko’s election of the President of Russia (August 10, 2020) was unexpected. Violations during the election campaign, falsification of voting results + attempts to involve Belarusian elections of OAO “Gazprom”, and then by the Russian government, ad V. Babariko a puppet of Moscow, the capture of a Russian Bank, the anti-Russian campaign in the Belarusian media and, as a result – the seizure of 33 Russian citizens (“insurgents”) was created in the Belarusian society some confidence that Moscow does not recognize the results of the vote. However, Moscow is one of the first, followed by the leader of China that of course, spurred, agreed with L. Ermoshina.
In turn, A. Lukashenko is now literally rejoices. Blackmail hostages demonstrated its effectiveness. But at the same time, realizing that for the Kremlin the crucial fate taken in Belarus hostages (“do not throw their Russian”), however, many in Moscow harbored the hope that the Kremlin not to hasten with congratulations.
Hard to say what accelerated the process. It is possible that A. Lukashenko again used against the Kremlin threatened to extradite the hostages to Ukraine, as in the midst of street protests in Minsk were badly needed public support of Moscow. But now after I have already received from Russia the recognition of the sixth period, nothing restricts the Belarusian side in the transfer of the hostages to Kiev. It turns out that Moscow has not solved the problem or she for the millionth time believed Alexander Lukashenko.
Moreover, presenting a good image of the actions of A. Lukashenko, we can expect that the Belarusian President will try to use hostages against Russia to resolve other political and financial problems that he does not leave. If A. Lukashenko began negotiations, then why not play in the slave trade again.
Active prolukashenka propaganda on Russian channels on August 10 was designed to explain to the Russian population the reasons for the recognition of the new presidency of a man who closely with the SBU is actively working against Russia and two weeks keeps the citizens in prison. Just note that it turned out badly, as the Directors used not professional hypocrites, and people from the Belarusian lobby, which is clearly overdone. In fact, considering A. Lukashenko de facto President of the Russian Federation, they proposed to make hostages of Lukashenka all Russians without exception that caused negative reactions in the Russian society, which is already confused: yesterday Lukashenko was a traitor, today a brother and allies, and again tomorrow, the enemy (?).
What else has influenced Russia’s recognition of the sixth term of Alexander Lukashenko? Not a secret that in the Russian political class and expert community is actively discussing the prospect of working with A. Lukashenko in the nearest future. Curiously, almost all of the sane experts point out that A. Lukashenko did not get the potential after the elections, and squandered. In other words, in Russia know the real results of the elections in Belarus and think how to use them.
Now Lukashenko is really a very “weak President”, dependent, on the one hand, from foreign, primarily Russian support, and on the other hand, from their Belarusian security forces. But then begins the fork. At first, the Kremlin needs to take advantage of the weakness of A. Lukashenko and make him sign all the integration document and begin implementation.
According to another version, the “weak” A. Lukashenko to the Kremlin, so as to fulfill its obligations, Belarusian President previously put before the Kremlin’s main condition: to restore full Russian financial and resource support. And everything goes in a circle. In the short term, A. Lukashenko by Russia will strengthen its positions in Belarus, which in turn will allow him to once again shy away from perform obligations. This cycle in relations with Lukashenko Russia took place three times – 1996, 2010, and now 2020
The result of another attempt to force Lukashenko to take, finally, after a quarter century, is known in advance, as is to remind of the existence of political formulas, has long proved its correctness in relation to Alexander Lukashenko: “Lukashenka’s absolute inability to negotiate”, “Lukashenka never fulfilling its promises” and the “Integration with Lukashenko is impossible.”
Apparently, the Kremlin has defeated the supporters of the First version. It is tactically intuitive, allows to quickly implement “breakthrough” well “and see what happens.”
The consequences of the elections in srednesrochnoi the future will wear for Russia is catastrophic. In fact, Moscow is repeating the mistake of 2014, when Russia recognized the election of Ukrainian President P. Poroshenko. One of the results of recognition was the war in the Donbass.
Within the developing in the Republic of Belarus of the political crisis Russia’s recognition of election results 2020 splits the current block in protest against Lukashenko that the Belarusian President provides a sixth presidential term. After the anti-Russian campaign of the Belarusian President Pro-Russian part of the Belarusian electorate will never return to A. Lukashenko, but in turn, these people, unfortunately, forever lost to the Kremlin. Nationalists in the framework of split block antilukashenkovskogo definitely going to ride street protests and send them against Russia, and create the conditions for real Belarusian “Maidan” and the geopolitical turn of the Republic according to the Ukrainian variant. Recall that in Russia since 2014 never held a public analysis of the lessons of the Ukrainian crisis and no conclusions had been reached.
The recognition results of the elections of the Russian Federation is a strategic mistake of Moscow and a triumph for Alexander Lukashenko.
What are the protests?
In Belarus began street protests. In their background we have to understand that there were do the Belarusian people the opportunity to make Moscow still be on his side, so as to prove in court the falsification of election results in Belarus is impossible?
The author of these lines in June, wrote that Russia would welcome the choice of the Belarusian people, if it is proven, i.e. in this case could be called a variant of the “velvet revolution” in the format of Yerevan 2018.
Minsk, 9 August put more than 100 thousand people. And unlike confrontation August 10, Sunday’s performance was really a protest, but not peaceful. Power emphasis, on 9 August was given to Belarusian security forces. But in the end, on the morning of August 10 even European TV channels informed about “street clashes”. The “velvet revolution” in the Republic impossible.
Then what happens on the streets of Belarusian cities? Recall that in one form or another, there are riots in 33 cities.
So, in Belarus there is no “color revolution”. The protesters are not United around the idea to count the ballots or requirement to declare second/third round of voting. The speech focused on the resignation of the Belarusian President A. Lukashenko failed to hide behind the L. Ermoshina.
View other forms of protests:
– the protests are not “Maidan”. Nobody is taking territory in the center of the Belarusian capital, no one puts up tents and fencing. And most importantly – no customer of the Maidan and the money for it. The money that the Belarusian “experts” on television talk shows grew from millions to billions, no one not seen live, including staff of liars with the Belarusian TV;
– the protests are not a revolt. No one captures the building, the protests until the evening of August 9 remained peaceful.
What was it then? Now, after August 10, Belarusian protests are in the nature of urban guerrilla warfare, a variant of guerrilla warfare. Careful analysis of the events of last night, said the growth of professionalism on the part of protesters. In the absence of staff, leaders, relationships and money people organize themselves and literally on the go mastering the techniques of street fighting. Yesterday against the forces of law and order, which is already fixed for the term from 1940-ies – “the executioners” used “Molotov cocktails”. Chants in their direction – “fascists”. The authorities remain committed to exclusively power methods of communication with the people in the style of the Gauleiter, which in principle, Belarusians familiar at the genetic level.
It is clear that in a day or two, there will be warlords, some forms of secrecy and underground work, there will be a public figure.
Unfortunately, the compromise between the rebels and the authorities is not possible. The Republic slowly and surely part of the civil war, which A. Lukashenko has fueled their virtual 81% of electoral support.
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