The expert explained, under what conditions can an open war of Russia with Ukraine

One of the shocks to the deployment of military action between Ukraine and Russia may be the failure of the project on construction of the Kerch bridge.

A big war between Ukraine and Russia is possible, if necessary, with the leadership of the Russian Federation, based on its internal policy, or if Putin does not consider escalation of the conflict risky from the point of view of foreign policy.

If Russia decides to open attack and uses all its military power, Ukraine, apparently, there will be no chance. This is because Russia is too significant military superiority over Ukraine, says German political scientist Andreas Umland in an article for Focus.

And although the Western States in case of war between Russia and Ukraine will actively support Kiev nor NATO nor the European Union participation in the conflict will not be accepted, the expert said.

These organizations apparently will not be able to prevent the collapse of Ukraine. You should be wary of the fact that to this day still do not even have adequate crisis plans in the event of such escalation, even though its political, economic and social impact on some of the countries-members of NATO and the EU will be quite substantial, predicts the author.

One of the shocks to the deployment of military action between Ukraine and Russia may be the failure of the project on construction of the bridge Kerch Strait, located between the Azov and the Black sea, suggests Umland.

The Crimean project is the most important for the legitimation of Putin’s system, so if the Kerch bridge will not be able to finish, or he simply collapses due to complicated geological conditions, Putin can make the decision on the establishment of a land corridor from Russia to Crimea, which will be held on the mainland of Ukraine. Kiev did not agree, and could trigger a major war against Ukraine, with the aim being the seizure of Russian land routes along the Northern coast of the sea of Azov in the Crimea, explains the analyst.

“As a result of hostilities could lead to a massive wave of refugees from Ukraine and other Eastern European States into the European Union. May be other other super-threats to security, which, it seems, neither in Western nor in Eastern Europe no one seriously thinks”, – says the publication.

Given these projections, it would be appropriate today to prevent Russia signing a convincing agreement on mutual assistance between the States of Central and Eastern Europe with the possible accession of unprepared for cooperation partners from the West. The new Alliance will focus on an example of multilateral cooperation in security in the South Caucasus, says a German analyst.

This kind of Pact, of course, can not become the equivalent of NATO and the EU, or their possible extensions, with the involvement of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but it would be a much more powerful opponent of the Kremlin, than the countries of Central and Eastern Europe separately, says Umland.

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