So what is happening in Belarus? It is obvious that Lukashenko lost the election and had a devastating defeat, after which in fact made a coup and usurped power. Why did he lose? Because his proposed political-economic model is at an impasse. No future, no development, people’s life is getting worse and worse. The President has been in power for 26 years, and became absolute monarch. All political life in the country is crushed.
I believe that in Russia, Lukashenka’s supporters today, more than in Belarus. It is believed that Lukashenko against privatization and has kept the industry in the country. While the Belarusian industry and agriculture are just an appendage to the Russian economy, and therefore, as the Russian economy is open and subject to global market conditions. The global economic crisis today closes Belarusian enterprises, leads to a drop in production across the Board and no Lukashenko nothing to do with it not. State-owned enterprises in Belarus corporatized and operate as a separate private producers. In such a situation and the possible privatization of essentially nothing for Belarus will not change.
Especially laugh, of course, all the Russian “left” frightening deindustrialization without Lukashenko. These characters are all waiting for, when they will grow up working class, which they then will head and lead to the victory of communism. Such fantasies are especially stupid and ridiculous in a time of global crisis, when capitalism is massively destroying productive forces throughout the world. We must act here and now, and not wait that you will grow the correct proletariat. No nothing will grow.
And even a possible prospect to go clean toilets in Europe (a favorite topic of the Russian Lukashenko supporters), cannot be a ground for refusal to deal with a tyrant. Belarusians, by the way, correctly noted that abandoning privatization of enterprises, Lukashenko privatize the whole country, making it his ancestral property.
Lukashenko, apparently, is doomed to lose power in the near future, regardless of his Russian fans and detractors. The situation Lukashenka is much worse than was before Yanukovych fled from Ukraine. The latter could be based on regional division of the country, and even could muster in its support for relatively motivated antimaydan. Lukashenka has no such possibility. He completely lost any support in society, and society itself has matured to the continued autocratic rule of Lukashenka would be totally unacceptable. People won’t accept. After the elections Lukashenka’s rule in the same mode as to them is impossible. And he cannot always keep troops on the streets and off the Internet. So he would have to leave.
The fall of Lukashenko will become a terrible and unexpected blow to the regime of Putin-Patrushev. They also considered that the main thing “not to be Yanukovych,” that is the main thing – to be ready resolutely to use force in any proportions. Convinced myself this and calm down. Sort of safe. Patrushev and Putin it will not “Yanukovych”. And then the next “not Yanukovych” is prepared to use force in any proportions, suddenly, can do nothing and flies out of government, and its determination to shed the blood of citizens only exacerbates the situation and leads to the dock without the possibility to negotiate the withdrawal.
How is this possible? In the Kremlin and around suddenly realize that just on the strength of it is impossible to rely that to get out of their houses at any time. And Khabarovsk unexpectedly showed that the Kremlin “does not Yanukovych” can’t do anything when society rears, the power resource stops working. After the fall of Lukashenko in the Kremlin will immediately feel naked and defenseless. And it would really be almost the end. The Russian government will just have to wait for the event, which will explode the situation.
And why, by the way, the Khabarovsk and Belarus to become such a surprise? They in the Kremlin just do believe that without Soros and the state Department, nothing is impossible. They had no idea that the society may become suddenly reared up and refuse to live by the rules that were once taken for granted. Since Belarus is shining through as the local KGB and Russian FSB, and any possibility of subversive activities there stopped, and the government does not Yanukovych, and worry was nothing. Deem the “right” vote, disaffected’s only to put and will rule as before. Well, who among them could have expected such a fantastic and unique twist that all of society will suddenly refuse to be still and it’ll all be nothing can be done about it. And no state Department next. This is a disaster and the collapse of the entire defensive doctrine. It turns out that they no Department of state can….
© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.