This question has long been can not occur not only true of the intellectual elite of Russia, but of every responsible adult citizen of Russia, able to reflect on the present and the future, not only his person, but their children and grandchildren.
Paid “experts” and propagandists (special propaganda, by definition, propaganda troops and the enemy population) serving the ruling of the Russian “upper classes”, over the past third of a century offered “the car and small truck” explanations and “models”. But none of them can withstand even the very first Association with reality.
Try then to formulate a hypothesis, which seems to adequately answer the question.
However, we emphasize immediately, in order to exclude all sorts of accusations and rumors: we know not what is in the minds of the actual ideologists and leaders of the “upper”, ruling over the Russian Federation. Not conducted us, therefore, to also know whether and how adequately they know, even if in some way know these very ideologies and leaders, not to mention all the members of these “top”, what they actually do in reality.
We just mapped the social conditions, circumstances and facts, obvious to most responsible adult citizens of Russia, capable to reflect on their, their children and grandchildren present and in the future.
And on this basis, formulate their hypotheses, and then match them up against reality in order to understand what is coming soon and, therefore, how to relate not only to the present, but for all that, most likely, is coming soon.
The Saudi model of prosperity “masters of life”.
Saudi prosperity is built not only on the abundance of oil, but also on the use of semi-servile cheap labor in the South Asian and African migrants.
Migration to the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, began in the 1970-ies, in connection with the active development of oil fields. Attracting migrants not only contributed to the need of oil companies in a large number of workers and staff, but also the specificity of Saudi society, where women hardly worked, and men consider it shameful to perform a number of works. Two-thirds of employed Saudis work for the government service.
A huge part of the Saudi youth has neither the appropriate level of skills and education or professional qualities that would allow her to work in private companies. Many entrepreneurs are forced to recruit foreigners because the Saudis simply will not perform this job or can not cope with their professional responsibilities. Until recently, even in the armed forces of the country were a lot of foreigners — and we are talking not only about the military specialists of high qualification, but also the ordinary soldiers. However, then Saudi Arabia still refused the recruitment of foreign nationals.
So the country began to receive many foreign labour migrants, who for decades has made perhaps the majority of Saudi employees. By 2010, migrants accounted for 30% of the total population of Saudi Arabia. By the end of 2015, the number of migrants has reached 10.2 million people.
Today the population of Saudi Arabia is approx. 34.9 million people, including migrants – is approaching 11 million people (approx. 31.5% of the total population).
Migrants now in Saudi Arabia “pay” on average no more than 350-450 dollars a month. Saudi citizens for the money to work do not agree (this is in SA normally it is impossible to live), and higher salaries for them one offer is not going to. Private sector generally does not employ members of the indigenous population.
For migrant workers in Saudi Arabia have always existed in very harsh living conditions and behavior. By law, 1969, foreign migrant worker can obtain a visa to Saudi Arabia only if there is “surety” of a Saudi citizen. Thus was formed the system of “kafala”, in which foreign labor migrants meet the “invited” them to the Saudis. They are required to issue to foreign workers residence permit and labour card. But many employers prefer not to do, so a huge number of foreign workers are in fact illegals.
In addition, even those migrants who work legally with all the necessary documents that are almost completely dependent on their employers. Without their permission they can’t change their place of residence, place of work, and to leave Saudi Arabia. Kafalah provides that during the term of the contract labour migrant should be under the full control of his “host”. He has taken the documents, he is deprived of the possibility to rent housing, obtain a driver’s license, etc.
Thus, migrant workers in Saudi Arabia are virtually in the position of serfs.
“The question”.
Don’t rebuild if all the structure and economy of the Russian Federation of its current “masters of life” on the “Saudi model”?
If rebuilt, and rebuilt very consistently, but extremely cautiously, that there was no “misfire”, then it is absolutely clear to all social and economic policy in Russia over the past quarter century.
If not rebuilt, then how do you explain such persistent sequence of actual social and economic policies of the “top” of the Russian Federation?
The Saudis seem to believe that the “masters” of the Russian Federation are, and will continue to act according to “Saudi model”: https://inosmi.ru/economic/20191011/246008336.html
What is today in Russia?
According to estimates of the Institute for social policy and socially-economic programs of the state research institution “Higher school of Economics” (see: https://newizv.ru/article/general/11-10-2019/prosto-shok-eksperty-podschitali-skolko-zhiteley-nuzhno-rossii?ind=58 ), for “pipe economy” requires a maximum of 50 million people along with migrant workers. We are talking about the economy and the social sector related to extractive industries and purposefully focused on all types of support of the extractive industries and of the personnel involved in them, including all the necessary state apparatus.
List all kinds of extractive industries and their required collateral included all relevant sectors of the population reproduction and the reproduction of society, including all necessary state, including the “power” structure.
Total for the “tube economy” in Russia today enough 50 million people, including in this number also and necessary “provision” insuring the probable “risks” deficit “frames.”
“Masters of life” in Russia – 750 thousand billionaires and millionaires with their families. They have about 7,0-7,5 million proven and “true” agents, which, together with their families constitute the majority of the upper and middle part of the state and municipal service, state corporations and the largest structure owned by the oligarchs. These of 7.0 – 7.5 million include the vast majority of those who “assess” Rosstat” can afford to consume (this is approx. 4 million), as well as a 3.0 – 3.5 million of the composition of the top layer of the so-called “middle class”.
Those of 8.0 – 8.5 million is already available (generated) is verified and “tied cases” personal “attendants”, “siloviki” and other envoys and spearmen. They form the clientele of all the “rich” and affiliated with (closely related) with them of the heads of all stripes. It (this clientelle) the total number of members together with their families is approximately 8 – 10 million.
Total “masters of life” in Russia currently have the 16 – 18 million souls of the faithful, tested and “tied” them to the population, including themselves “masters of life” with their families.
If these 16-18 million to add another 5-6 million proven “specialists of the economy pipe” together with their families, although most of these latter may be replaced by migrants, it turns out 21 – 24 million, which is almost half of the Russian population required “of the economy pipe”.
The rest of 25-29 million may be “serfs” labor migrants, which is no problem, and the costs are minimal – not only the experience of Saudi Arabia, but the experience of the Russian oligarchs to replace the “working cattle” (“cattle”) labour migrants is already proven.
However, the experience of Saudi Arabia proved and another – the biggest problem ruling the “top” take not labor migrants, but the “extra” the indigenous population. Economically it is superfluous; you do not need the economy, and besides, and not “suitable” for use as “working cattle”, but it requires significant “budget expenditures” on its contents.
So, again before the “indigenous” population of the Russian Federation ruling over him “tops” in its actual social and economic policies inevitably pose all the same questions:
Don’t rebuild if all the structure and economy of the Russian Federation of its current “masters of life” on the “Saudi model”?
If rebuilt, and rebuilt very consistently, but extremely cautiously, that there was no “misfire”, then it is absolutely clear to all social and economic policy in Russia over the past quarter century.
If not rebuilt, then how do you explain such persistent sequence of actual social and economic policies of the “top” of the Russian Federation?
From whom and, more importantly, by actual changes in social practice the “top” of the Russian Federation we expect answers to all these questions, which (answers) can you trust?
P. S:
It is possible that someone will Express “argument” against something, in this case, they say, will inevitably arises the problem of control of the territories of the Russian Federation, which are claimed by others.
In fact, this is not an argument for the “top” of the RF from the word altogether. They already solve this imaginary problem renting to foreigners of the land to lease for 50 years and more legalized and practically worked out. “The process has begun” gaining momentum, but that’s just something where it interferes with the native population their protests.
In fact, it is not an argument against but an argument for the “Saudi model”.
Vasiliev Vladimir, 24 Oct 2019.
The original text datuin at: http://www.dal.by/news/178/24-10-19-5/
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