The message about the record increase in the gross national product of Russia in 2018 provoked numerous disputes and doubts, including among Pro-government experts. In particular, the chief economist of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach immediately after the publication of the official annual statistics, pleasant in all respects for the government, said that estimates Russia’s economy would grow only 1.5%. They say, “do not trust” the Rosstat figure is 2.3%.
Note that the Federal reserve system at the time was Deputy Minister of economic development, when this office was headed by Elvira Nabiullina, the current head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. According to a professional biography, he details knows the real picture of economic situation of Russia and is one of the most authoritative forecasters in this area.
And here, according to finanz.ru, “your comment gave Klepach on Monday, February 4. And after 4 days in the TASS announced that “cancels” the news “due to the fact that it was released by mistake”.
We also add that Bloomberg surveyed 17 well-known economists on the subject of authenticity provided by Rosstat data. They, too, initially expressed some distrust — without “manipulation” has not been. Since entering the year information from the Russian Federation did not give grounds for optimism.
In short, if the changes are abrupt, they are always suspicious.
In General, surveyed the European and overseas experts believe that Rosstat is preparing for the fact that since the beginning of the 2020s, it will have to publish reports about a 3 percent GDP growth. The fact that President Putin demands from the government Medvedev entering this growth economy. It seems, hence the “grow legs” triumphant reports of the Central statistical office of the Russian Federation, which recently changed the head.
Bloomberg experts erupted with criticism of Rosstat, calling on world business and international political circles, “follow the hands” of officials from the Agency. Given that this Agency represents the interests of wall street and American establishment, it is also hard not to suspect bias, when it comes to Russia. Too reflex are the Americans any good news from Moscow.
Especially just after the publication of Rosstat, the international Agency Moody’s raised Russia’s sovereign rating to “junk” status to the bottom rung of investment grade. Thus, the so-called big rating of “three” — S&P, Fitch and Moody’s assessed the activities of the Cabinet of Medvedev as a positive. In fact, we are talking about incentive prize for a pension reform that eliminates the new US sanctions.
The news of the de facto can be interpreted as follows: company S&P, Fitch and Moody’s, changed the temper justice with mercy, confirmed the report of Rosstat about the biggest growth of the Russian economy, starting from 2013. Moreover, the increase of Russia’s GDP by 2.3% in 2018 was included in their directories most international economic institutions.
An overview of several scientific and expert publications, both Russian and Western, shows that the Kremlin has become harder to treat the governors whose lack of professionalism, along with high corruption, bad influence on the rating authority as a whole. This explains the pressure on the Rosstat the statistical office more accurately informed Moscow about what is happening on the ground. It happened as a result of sanctions, which Russia reduced the “client base” of the various political-economic clans.
In particular, the Institute of international Finance (The Institute of International Finance — IIF), that day and night, monitoring the Russian economy, noted that the complication of conditions, strangely enough, positively affect the work of the Rosstat, in part to the fact that Putin himself is keenly interested in objective information. The survival instinct of the authorities is forcing the Kremlin to vigilantly look at the numbers on the GDP.
According to the IIF (the global Association of the financial industry, with nearly 500 banks and investment companies from 70 countries — ed.) last year, the main contribution to the growth of the Russian economy with the projected 1.5% to 2.3% of GDP have contributed information on the implementation of the project “Yamal LNG”. Whether the data came with a delay, or for some reason did not consider in the January-November 2018.
To be more precise, on the Yamal Peninsula in Northwest Siberia Corporation “NOVATEK” has completed the construction of a plant to produce liquefied natural gas worth $ 27 billion (approximately 2 trillion. rubles). This, incidentally, writes Bloomberg, which suggests: “a Large part of the project is likely to have been registered by Rosstat in 2018, even if the actual construction took place previously.”
Thus, those who cry “fake news” from Rosstat, with high probability, be wrong. However, if GDP really grew by 2.3%, immediately begs another, more pointed question: why then impoverished population? According to the statistics of the same Rosstata, real incomes of Russians in 2018 decreased by 0.2% in real terms compared with the 2017 year. Otherwise, the economic paradox, this fact can not be called.
The answer is simple. The fact is that the implementation of the project “Yamal LNG” absolutely does not bring even a penny of benefit to ordinary people, not involved, of course, in this case. And almost all countries. Looking at the document “State support of oil and gas production in Russia: the Role of subsidies in the implementation of the project “Yamal LNG and Prirazlomnoe”, you can read about the Royal gifts of the Kremlin oligarchs and foreign investors, who flocked to foreign raw materials, like flies to honey.
Thus, the “Yamal LNG” has benefits:
— met in the form of “Liberation in the amount of 250 billion m3 of gas and 20 million tons of condensate for a period of 12 years from the start of production”;
— export duty — “Exemption from export duties for LNG and stable gas condensate”;
— the tax to property “exemption in the amount of 250 billion m3 of gas and 20 million tons of condensate for a period of 12 years from the start of production”;
— income tax — “Reduction from 18% to 13.5% for the first extracted 250 billion m3 of gas for a period of 12 years from the start of production”.
Meanwhile, on the Russian Federal channels regularly twist videos about “Yamal LNG”, as a project of strategic importance, almost of the construction of people’s twenty-first century. Although, as it turns out, we are talking about a purely oligarchic capital. Maybe that’s why it was not previously included in the report of Rosstat, since it is logical to specify the implementation of the project in the distant 2031, when anything will come to the Treasury?
And anyway — where is the guarantee that the same plant “Yamal LNG”, as well as other projects of the authorities is new or already implemented, will not receive future regular benefits in the form of further tax exemption? Or suddenly because of the machinations of the West, they will become not profitable and closes?
Interesting to get a picture: after pension reform and increasing VAT, the Russians de facto mobilized for an economic war with the West. However, it turns out that each of us, joining the fight for individual survival, the fight will be solely for someone else’s economic interests.
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.
