In his new book, which was published on November 30, the founder of the world’s largest hedge-fund firm wrote that there’s a 30% chance of such an outcome because the rules of governance are being ignored.
Pointing to the six stages of the internal order/disorder cycle, which ends in civil war, Dalio claims that the US is currently in stage five: bad financial conditions and intense conflict.
“For example, when close elections are adjudicated and the losers respect the decisions, it is clear that the order is respected. When power is fought over and grabbed, that clearly signals the significant risk of a revolutionary change with all its attendant disorder,” Dalio wrote.
He noted that people, including high-ranking officials, have openly doubted the validity of recent elections and expressed their willingness to fight for their beliefs.
Dalio also cited several studies showing the growing emotionally charged divide between the two political parties. Thus, according to him, a recent survey showed that 15% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats thought the country would be better off if a majority of the opposing political party “just died.”
He also said that the Constitution is the “longest-lasting and most widely admired internal order,” which “makes it less likely that it will be abandoned, but more traumatic if it is.”
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