Trump beating Biden in swing states – NYT poll

US President Joe Biden would likely lose a rematch against his Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, if the election were held now, according to polls from the New York Times/Siena College and CBS/YouGov published on Sunday.  

The New York Times poll showed Trump leading Biden significantly in five of the six critical ‘swing states,’ holding an 11-point lead in Nevada and smaller margins across Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Only Wisconsin favored Biden – and only by a two-point margin. 

Two thirds of respondents said the US was moving in the wrong direction, and a majority across all demographics claimed Biden’s policies had personally hurt them. Nearly three quarters (71%) said the president was too old to serve effectively – including more than half of his own supporters – while 62% said he lacked the mental acuity for the job. 

Close to six in ten (59%) likely voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy – rated as the most important issue of the 2024 election by a majority of respondents – and the preference for Trump held true across all education and income levels, ages, and genders.  

Just 2% of respondents – and less than 1% of those under 30 – claimed the economy was ‘excellent’, potentially explaining Biden’s flagging support among young voters, who overwhelmingly chose him in 2020 but favored him by just one point over Trump in Sunday’s poll.  

The CBS poll put Trump ahead of Biden by three points, echoing the NYT’s findings that voters are pinning their economic hopes on the Republican. Nearly half (45%) of those polled said they’d be better off financially if Trump returned to the White House, compared to just 18% predicting a rosy economic future under Biden, though a majority (51%) expected both candidates’ policies to favor the wealthy over the working and middle classes. At the same time, 48% expected to be financially worse off if Biden won a second term, while 32% felt the same about Trump. 

Trump was also seen as less belligerent. Nearly half (47%) of the respondents thought he would increase peace and stability in the world, compared to just 31% who felt the same about Biden. While 39% of likely voters still believed Trump would increase the odds of the US entering another war, nearly half (49%) expected Biden to do so. 

Voters’ own preferences were overwhelmingly for avoiding foreign wars, with 72% of respondents agreeing the US should “try to stay out of other countries’ affairs” and just 35% prioritizing the projection of military power over the promotion of American ideals as a foreign policy goal. Still, a slim majority supported sending military aid to both Israel (55%) and Ukraine (53%).

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