The output of the shadow economy hinders the economic growth of Russia. This opinion is shared by experts interviewed belong to Gregory Berezkin edition RBC.
Under a conclusion of economy from shadow sector implies the involvement of informal activities in the regulated turnover. As a result, the workers in the informal sector, and the business itself begin to pay taxes. However, this in turn leads to a fall in real disposable incomes, said the Ministry.
According to Rosstat, in the informal sector work 15,25 million people, or over 20 percent of employment in the economy. Last year, the hidden payroll amounted to more than 13 trillion rubles (12.6% of GDP), while in 2014 he was more — 13.8 percent of GDP. Overall, according to official data, the share of non-observed economy in the Russian GDP falls for years.
According to the Federal tax service, from 2013 to 2017 tax revenues to the consolidated budget grew by almost 60 percent, although the rates of major taxes in the period remained at the same level. In real terms, the increase in tax revenue amounted to 19.9 per cent, accumulated over five years, the GDP growth was only 1.2 percent. The Ministry believes that the increase in tax revenues associated with the “whitewashing” of the economy.
According to the economist for Russia and CIS of the investment company “Renaissance Capital” Sophia Donets, the withdrawal of business from the shadows will inevitably hold back economic growth, although in itself is a positive process. According to her, the transition to the new rules hinders the business. The rector of Academy of labor and social relations Alexander Safonov argues that any “whitewashing” the situation in the absence of high GDP growth, as in Russia, means more withdrawal of funds from consumption in favor of the state, undermining consumer demand.
According to Rosstat, real disposable incomes fall from year to year and in 2014 they fell by 8.3 percent. By the end of 2019, the Ministry expects that revenues will not grow nearly.
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