Among young people less willing to spend life in Russia. The main reason is lack of prospects. In the economy and in politics.
The number of young Russians who wish to leave the country, exceeded one half. 53% of citizens up to 24 years of dreaming to go. Growth is very important until this past February — by 12%, and in 2015 — 31%.
Stepan Goncharov, the sociologist “Levada-center”:
“The trend in the growth of emigration moods among young people could be seen in the last five years. It was a smooth ascending line. So we can talk about long-term changes in the attitudes of young people. Youth, in General, more mobile group: young people feel less tied to the current place of residence, place of work, are less connected with family or perhaps some other financial obligations to the banks, more willing to change jobs, better know foreign languages.
But there are, of course, and situational factors. This summer was quite a lot of political events. And if you look at the causes that call people what they want to change the country of residence, then in General the Russians “political situation” is on the third-fourth place, and for young people in second place. Situational factors the current political context affect the opinion of citizens.
Analyzing the data about the fact that now 53% of young people wish to emigrate, we can assume that if the situation stabiliziruemost, this number may be reduced. But, if you look at the trend, it still remains bullish. So I should continue to expect a gradual increase in the number wishing to emigrate. Although the world appeared tendencies that oppose globalization from the point of view of labour mobility, facilitate the search for new work, residency and fellowship, the situation is simplified for young people. Therefore expect growth in the future.
At the first place for young people the best career opportunities abroad. If in General for the Russians “career growth” in the fourth-the fifth place among the reasons for the desire to leave something for the young — the first reason. Youth is the most able-bodied and mobile group, which is focused on their personal benefit, success and fulfillment. An essential component of success for a young person is an opportunity to establish myself as a professional, this is indicated by our research.”
Georgy Fyodorov, President of the center for social and political studies “Aspect”:
“We have six consecutive years of falling incomes and wages, though rising, but in fact is eaten up by inflation, utilities, taxes. The labor market is reduced, unemployment increases, quality of life is deteriorating. In these conditions, many young people — and young, as a rule, people with ambition — looking for a better life. They think outside the Russian Federation, in the West, they will find it. Such was the case in any crisis situation, when the number of such people increased. And in 90 years, we remember, there were many people who wanted to leave and left. In this case, the trend is repeated: many young people do not see prospects for themselves, which, of course, very sorry.
Even if you compare the salaries of the specialists of the Russian high-tech companies — the same programmers who paid well, in comparison with the income earned by their colleagues in large transnational corporations, they are incommensurable.
The government’s actions are also perceived as an irritant, though it is not the main reason. In big cities there is a concentration of young people from across the country. For many of those who came from the regions, Moscow was previously seen as a hipster Paradise, it was believed that there are opportunities to develop and work. But the political events of this summer also influenced the atmosphere and added reasons to leave the country.”
Alexei Makarkin, first Vice-President of the Center for political technologies:
“Many young people see no prospects in Russia. In the country the obvious problem with vertical mobility, blocked social mobility, and therefore people in this situation looking at other options.
Among the reasons for poor mobility is the problem of corruption and the problem of lack of meritocracy. In order to “advance”, you need to enlist a set of “relations” and he is not at all. This theme has always been, was chronic and superimposed on the economic stagnation. In 2014, the economy is not growing at the pace that could provide high vertical mobility. Accordingly, new features less than people expect, and now they are targeting, at least declaratively, to departure.
People in this situation feel that they are unable to change something. Someone protesting out on the streets, but nothing changes. And this feeling that you can’t change anything, intensified. Moreover, the increased a feeling of nepolnotsennosti. If a COP hits you, he will be rewarded, but if you hit a COP, I’d go to jail. It causes an emotional rejection.
Another thing that really leave the country a smaller part. For the most part is a kind of dream, because you will need to be competitive on the world market. It won’t work for everyone. Most will remain in Russia, but the dream in this case is a symbolic character. It shows a fairly high level of people’s emotions.
There is another problem. That is the desire to leave overlaps a certain pattern, which was from the period of economic growth, “zero” years. Then the young people meant that they will go abroad, will gain additional competencies, education, experience, and then come back. Now there may be problems with the return. As far as people who can go and focused on the fact that after some time, to return to Russia is a big question.”
Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economic expert:
“This is the best illustration of how “life has become better and better.” Us on TV all day tell you how wonderful we are growing and developing, what we on the way to economic breakthroughs, and technological breakthroughs. Us President Vladimir Putin and the team of the government are constantly promising new “may decrees”, the prospects for young people, economic growth and incomes, the fight against corruption, but in fact people are not blind, do not suffer from amnesia and are friends with the head. So if you turn off the TV, stop watching all this propaganda and verbiage, go outside, you realize that in recent years life has become much worse. And for the vast majority of Russians.
People are fleeing from Russia for a number of reasons. It has Economics, politics, social sphere, and the social situation, and the situation with freedom of speech, and the inability of regime change and the violation of civil liberties. What is strange is that the proportion of young respondents who would like to travel from Russia has grown from 20% in may 2014 to 53% today?
All this euphoria with pseudo-Patriotic fervor after Crimea successfully exhausted, people understand that there is no “Russian world”, nor the struggle with the oligarchs, with no economic breakthrough. Sixth consecutive year of falling real disposable income of the population: they are officially dropped by 8.5%, unofficially drop about 35-40%. Only officially below the poverty line has become more and more Russians on 5 million people: there were 15.5 million, was 20.5 million people. And according to the Institute of sociology 40% of the population — not just the poor, and the poor-prenesi class income is below 20 thousand rubles per month. The ruble against the dollar fell to two times, respectively, prices rose about 2 — 2.5 times. Unemployment outside the major cities monstrous, especially hidden. Well, in the absence of prospects, opportunities to find a good job and provide a decent future, people are willing — would be such possibility — to go somewhere. It is clear that half of those who said they would like to go, no money anywhere to go. But people understand that in this economic and political system is no good shines.
There are reasons certainly of a political nature: people understand that the government is not ready to change, not ready to leave their places, can not be fair elections. We are well seen on the example of Moscow in the summer, when tens of thousands of people came out to protest rallies. In political terms, is usurpation of power by one party.
The main disappointment is the gap between words and deeds of the authorities. People are tired of the lies. They are disappointed that the government not only keeps his word, but constantly lying. People open the Internet and see a journalistic investigation about the leadership of the country. No reaction from law enforcement is, no corruption really struggling. People understand that this is a mutual responsibility and cronyism. So many, indeed, choose the path to leave the country”.
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