In Russia, no one wants to admit frankly weak results of the migration policy of the state, experts say.
The Russian Federation needs migrants, but we still repressive legislation in this area. However, the demographic situation in the country is such that migration won’t help her. The Kremlin is taking a course on the mass distribution of passports in neighboring countries, but that it will become an additional burden for the budget, now nobody cares. Probably this is the main (though not only) the points that were discussed by the leading experts in this field at the scientific-practical conference on “Migration and security in Russia: economic, demographic, and humanitarian dimension.” The conference was held in Moscow, in the Institute of socio-political studies and was conducted by International public movement “Forum of migrant organizations” in collaboration with ISPR.
According to the President of Fund “Migration XXI century” Vyacheslav Postavnin, “the main danger consists not so much in the migration phenomenon, as the loss of control over the migration situation, and that is what we are seeing now in our country”.
In his opinion, the current concept of migration policy can be judged “by the laws which are made in recent time”. Of them, he said, “you can make a very definite conclusion — the purpose of improving security by removing the majority of migrants in the illegal field.” This, says Postavnin contribute to such things as the prohibition of migration registration of foreign citizens at the legal address. However, it is forbidden to register them in residential areas.
Postavnin noted that socio-economic and demographic sense in updated in 2018 the concept of state migration policy are two programs: the state program of resettlement of compatriots and the intergovernmental agreement with Uzbekistan on a organized set. So he and the other mechanisms, according to him, is clearly not working.
“Nobody wants to admit the obvious — frankly weak or even insignificant results” the migration policy of the state, lamented the expert and leads the following figures. For 12 years the program of resettlement of compatriots in Russia it has moved only 800 thousand people. And 400 thousand of them are citizens of Ukraine.
Note that it is not difficult to guess that most of these 400 thousand Ukrainians took advantage of this program only in case of force majeure 2014-2015. Set from Uzbekistan also, in fact, fail. On it, according to the expert, in Russia came 2000 labor migrants from that country, while the remaining two million Uzbeks, as before, come to Russia on their own.
Head of the Department of demography of the Higher school of modern social Sciences of Moscow state University Vladimir Iontsev convinced that using a single migration Russia will not solve its severe demographic problems. These problems today are such that even in regions such as Chechnya and Dagestan, where the previously recorded natural population growth, today this area is not very good. So, in Dagestan, according to him, for several years there is a natural decline in the population. And things are bad so that even in the highland villages have to resort to foreign labor.
Meanwhile, continued the expert, in Russia unfairly given little space of internal migration, which could solve many of the demographic and labor problems of the country, since two — thirds of immigrants to Russia is internal, that is, moving from one region to another. He gave the example of the United States, where in recent years came four million foreign migrants, while internal migrants for the same time, there were 68 million people.
According to chief research officer of the ISPR Anatoly Topilin, the situation where the main centers of attraction for domestic migrants are Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnodar Krai, is potentially very dangerous. The irregular distribution in Russia is aggravated, and if these processes currently underway in the internal migration will continue in the future, the majority of the Russian population moved to the West of the country, that this “as a huge ship turn over,” he says.
That would radically change the situation Topilin suggests “to change the vector of interest of the population, to shift the center of the country, for example, in Tomsk”. He believes that in this case there will go to the capital, and the capital will go out into the community. As a successful example of such displacement of the center of the country from one part to another, he cited Kazakhstan, whose leader Nursultan Nazarbayev moved the capital from the southern Almaty to Astana in the North.
Head of the laboratory of economy population and demography economic faculty of Moscow state University Olga Chudinovskikh drew attention to the shortcomings of the Concept of migration policy of the Russian Federation. According to her, the document “a lot, or unreasonable regulations, or provisions of those beyond the reach”. In particular, the expert notes, it States restore order in migration matters, but “what about restoring order and growth of legal employment among migrants can say after 2015, when the multiple of the increased price of the patent for them and on their shoulders was hung a bunch of all sorts of encumbrances? Today we see that coming to us conditionally four million people, and the documents (for a job) get two million”.
Chudinovskikh also drew attention to a new aspect of Russia’s migration policy, which is to dramatically increase the number of Russian citizens living abroad. Mainly in the East of Ukraine. “The presence of a significant number of Russian citizens who live abroad, carries the risks of creating hotbeds of tension because according to the law on citizenship of Russia must protect its citizens, wherever they were,” — said the expert.
With regard to a simplified distribution of Russian passports to residents of the breakaway DNI and LC, Chudnovsky says not against it, but only if they do move to Russia. In reality, she continues, “there are direct economic consequences of granting citizenship of the Russian people living abroad”. We now want to “take Russian citizenship for about three million people, as residents of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and natives of the Crimea. Thus the age structure of the population of the population of Ukraine is about the same as in Russia. That is, of these three million, around one million pensioners”.
Now, says the specialist, “according to the statistics of the Pension Fund, we pay 42 billion rubles as of pensions to Russian citizens living abroad. There are today about 300 thousand people. If there are added about one million pensioners of the LC and the DNI, we need at least another 100 billion rubles for payments to these new retirees”. By this, she notes, it is necessary to add women who expect to receive the parent capital, having acquired the citizenship of the Russian Federation.
Chudnovsky says that he has nothing against these people and that her “crazy mind,” but the working population of Russia in this case will have to provide not only their seniors, but also those who will become citizens as a result of recent decrees of the President of Russia simplifies the process of obtaining Russian citizenship for residents of these Ukrainian territories.
“Decision on the simplification of acquiring citizenship of the Russian Federation large populations living abroad and does not plan on moving to Russia, bear the risks of economic and political nature”, — said the expert. According to her, we have to decide and ask the question: “Who needs Russia: people, its inhabitants or the owners our passports (living abroad)?”. “We will solve old problems or create new?”, she asks.
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