The Russian economy, predicted a drop of different severity in 2020, the decline in GDP caused by the restrictive measures to combat the spread of coronavirus. So, the international monetary Fund believes that Russia’s GDP will fall by 5.5%, world Bank — 1-2,2%. Analysts of rating Agency of ACRE suggest that the decline may be 0.8% if to lift the quarantine in the summer, or 7.5%, if there are re-flashes, and the vaccine will be delayed for two years.
Financial-economic bloc of the government continues to work as if nothing happens: the head of the Central Bank Elvira Naibullina afraid to accelerate inflation, economy Minister Anton Siluanov referred to the formal budget rule and does not want to burn reserves, and the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov spends time calling banks to make sure that half-hearted measures to support business and employment, no one takes. Everyone is afraid of falling KPI and personal responsibility — is slow, while the economy of the country beats in an epileptic fit.
Even under the most favorable epidemiologic scenarios and with the price of oil at $ 35 Russians will see reduced income, rising unemployment and the ruin of small and medium business.
Measures to support the affected sectors of the economy, most experts considered insufficient. Economy Minister Anton Siluanov in the program “Moscow. The Kremlin. Putin” said that measures to support the economy are estimated at $ 3.1 trillion and 2 trillion rubles will be spent on compensation for the shortfall of oil revenues. The total volume of funds, taking into account the payment of the non-oil budget revenues will amount to 6.5% of GDP, or about 7.3 trillion.
Anton Siluanov said that with all the spending budget by the end of the year in the reserve Fund national welfare must remain another 7 trillion rubles, which with the price of oil at around $ 20 per barrel, it is planned to stretch until 2024.
However, to keep money in the FNB economists believe is wrong, money should work in economy to prevent critical decline. Among other things, the proposed return of funds into the economy by distributing them to citizens. This approach is shared by the Secretary of the party Central Committee “For the truth”, doctor of economic Sciences , Nikolai Beginners.
“SP”: — Why the government does not use its funds and how they can help the Russian economy?
— Let’s start with the fact that the national welfare Fund were created in the zero years, when the surplus from oil sales. Under certain prices some of the money from oil sales goes into the budget, and part of the NWF. This is a public salt away for a rainy day. Periodically from the Fund the money came to resolve some infrastructure projects. It’s possible, why not, every family has the money for a rainy day, but if we believe that we need to invest, probation, housing, the money we find. The question arises. If we left on a rainy day in order to use them in times of crisis, what crisis needed. Our country is already a month does not work, and the decline in the economy this month will be, what are we still waiting on that money to use.
The accounting approach that is cherished by our financial-economic bloc, is not from the interests of the people, and from the numbers — we’ll unpack when will the budget deficit. Now the budget deficit no, it’s the end of 2019, the budget surplus, but this is nonsense. The budget surplus amounted to 1 trillion rubles, that is, we have not spent 1 trillion rubles. This is not because I do not what to spend, and because the state is so bad that is unable to spend the money.
And we have over the years accumulated those same 7 trillion roubles is a huge amount. What is the crisis, what needs to happen in order for the government finally thought that really the money should be spent into the economy to help people. It is clear that the coronavirus will soon be over, have already appeared optimistic forecasts that in this Gaussian curve we reached a peak and then will decline, God forbid, but after that, out of the crisis still have. Moreover, the crisis is the whole world and count on the fact that the price of oil will rise in the near future, too, is not necessary, because A — summers and B — economic activity has decreased, and hence the consumption of oil and gas in the world will be reduced. Therefore, this money need to take, to guide, to help people to modernize the economy, to support all industries that is now. A time of crisis, for which accumulated national welfare Fund, has already arrived, let’s face it.
Financial-economic bloc is unable to admit it, they do not have the courage and political will, they are accountants, not politicians.
“SP”: — How much money is in the accounts of NWF, and what can last?
— The SWF is now 7 trillion rubles — this is huge money. Let’s divide 7 trillion and 146 million people, and we understand that it is a huge amount. The government is trying to begin to pay the victims for two minimum wages, I think it is right, but who is not injured? In which areas people were not injured? I don’t want to say that these money are saved, but when they just lie there and locked, they do not work on the economy, on people. Giving all people the roughly 10 thousand rubles a month, then the money back into the economy. The money no one will postpone, they will spend on food, paying for utilities. They will return to the economy and will indirectly support our development. Maybe we will do that? And will not sit on this money to look like an icon and pray for them. Now a different time.
I’m not saying that because of the devaluation and inflation of the money corny burn. The dollar and the Euro rose prohibitive, thus all ruble cash, all savings fell.
“SP”: — Now a lot of discussion that the US just print money and give it to the people. We can do it, how useful and competently from the point of view of the economy?
— USA can do it for one simple reason — the dollar is a global reserve currency. They can print any amount of dollars and it won’t affect negatively on their economy because those dollars are dissolving around the world, from developed European countries, ending with the last third world country. The issue for America is not detrimental. For Russia, under certain conditions, the issue could also be disastrous if this money will not be, relatively speaking, to go to the banks, and will be sent immediately to the market. If they enter the economy through the construction, through the creation of new projects and industries.
The emission of the ruble may support the economy and develop infrastructure, while not warming up the inflation is the first aspect. The second aspect, if we will ensure that the ruble will become a reserve currency for all countries of the EAEC, we will additionally be able to issue money because they will also differ between countries in our orbit. This problem is also solved. It is not necessary in the conditions of crisis are afraid of the issue, afraid of those printed money. Crisis economy and the economy is not in crisis — it’s two different economies.
“SP”: — That is, in Russia there is a mechanism that we could also print money?
— The Central Bank periodically includes the printing press. The money go to the banks that need to increase liquidity. This practice is detrimental. Money does not start to work, they are deposited on accounts converted from paper to paper. They should not settle, they must go all the way through the materialization of infrastructure, new production, really works economy. In conditions when the Central Bank is actually an independent organization, we can’t control what he’s published. It is also an important measure to put the Central Bank at the service of society.
“SP”: — How do you assess support measures for business support, whether this is help?
— It’s not the action, it’s half measures, imitation activities. Let we give loans at preferential rates, but credit should be given. When these companies earn money? Or, roughly speaking, let’s give small businesses and micro-businesses, and medium businesses do not need to give? It’s all garbage and pure imitation. The same accounting approach. Now need decisive action, we are in a crisis, which was never. And we continue to use old bottles for pouring new wine. Economic and financial issues driving snowstorm instead of having to admit at least that they don’t understand and begin to deal with the case.
“SP”: — what is the feature of the current crisis compared to previous ones?
His peculiarity is that this crisis is total and global levels — there are no countries that would not be affected, and the total on the national no industries are not affected. All feel equally bad. Body aches all over, appropriately so for this and should be treated and not treat separately the leg, a separate arm, and the fingers not going to treat us, it’s okay if they fall off.
“SP”: — Why, even these measures are not working so far, this bureaucracy works?
— First, it is the bureaucracy — they don’t know how. Secondly, this is the accounting approach. Take, for example, mortgage break, I in a coffin saw these vacations. Well, I don’t pay this month, and next month will have to pay twice? Need a normal payment, normal cancellation. Need real money to them to close the obligations of enterprises and ordinary people. To give the ability to spend to the enterprise earn and so on.
“SP”: — As a movement For “the truth” is already helping people in a crisis?
— We have staffs of mutual assistance, they help the elderly and those who are dangerous to get out of the house: deliver the products and so on. In my native Perm region doctors gave cakes for Easter, physicians are busy and have no time to go and the cake to buy. And from physicians and the health care system depends now very much, and the help they need. People who sit in isolation also need to help. There is a crazy situation when older people can’t even receive a pension: they sit at home, post away the pension they accrued, and they can’t even get it. Help those who are in a difficult situation, the aid of physicians is very important, but, in my opinion, now the most important thing is not to ruin our economy. Not to bring it before the crisis, from which it will not work. We must admit that we fall and at least make it stop falling and begin to climb in the economic sense up. For this we need political will, you need to depart from the accounting approach and begin to answer for his words, the country’s economy.
“SP”: — how to move away from this approach?
— People change. This is not my expertise, maybe aware of the fact that we are in unprecedented times of crisis, is the first step. This can be done only by the state, it has to admit it, but for some reason does not want to admit.
“SP”: — will it Help in the fight against the crisis, the introduction of emergency mode?
— I don’t think it will help, because emergency mode is the default, force majeure and so on. The measures of quarantine that is, they already make themselves felt, and, indeed, the number of contacts between people has decreased, so, God forbid, that will decrease the spread of the disease. A state of emergency is not legally necessary, but we need emergency measures.
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