Due to the fact that lenders have to assess borrowers ‘ debt burden had increased the number of applications for loans to microfinance institutions. The demand for the ten months increased by 20% compared to last year. While not all approved applications, and the part of the Russians will go to illegal lenders to seize the money to pay, experts warn.
The demand of Russians on loans from MFIs is growing. As of 1 November this year, our fellow citizens have issued 170 million applications for loans to microfinance institutions. This was the General Director of the financial market Юником24 Yuri Kudryakov.
This is higher by 20% than in the corresponding period last year.
So, a year earlier, the Russians sent about 141 million applications in 10 months, in 2017, 107-110 million.
In General, the expert believes that by the end of this year, individuals will be serving around 200 million requests for loans. This really will be issued only 32-33 million loans.
The increased demand for loans caused by a tightening in the credit market, which was introduced in autumn regulator. So, on October 1, the financial institution taking a decision on granting a loan or credit, is obliged to take into account the debt burden indicator (PDN) of the client.
Banks and MFIs are required to calculate the PD on the loans from 10 thousand rubles as the ratio of monthly payments for current loans to the monthly income of the borrower. In this case no standard to adhere to which creditors should start a “today” was not introduced. Each financial institution should determine the acceptable level of debt load.
However, interviewed experts noted that the load is above 50% may already be considered a barrier to lending.
The indicator of debt burden was introduced in order to prevent the occurrence of a “credit bubble” that has worried officials.
So, the Central Bank repeatedly pointed out that the high growth in unsecured consumer lending segment (September 1, it amounted to 23.8 percent) carry risks to financial stability.
While the Ministry and all declared the formation of a credit bubble in the Russian economy and admitted that it can lead to a recession in the economy.
But not to take the money the Russians can’t. According to the President of SRO NAPCA Elman Mehdiyev, our fellow citizens are in dire need of borrowed funds.
“Someone tired of living in eternal mode save and deny myself everything, someone does not have enough money for necessities because of the decline in real disposable income. However, due to the rigid restrictive measures applied by the regulator in respect of regulated organisations, not all applications satisfy the creditors, fearing to take risks. As practice shows, current at the time in 90% of cases they denied to those who have outstanding debt,” — said the expert.
Citizens has not ceased to need the money, and get them officially in the Bank, they can not, therefore, forced to borrow very high interest rates in MFIs, said Pavel Sigal, first Vice-President “Support of Russia”.
Total debt of citizens is 15 trillion and this amount is not reduced from year to year, and is growing, he points out.
Needs do not disappear, and the real income (income after all obligatory payments and adjusted for inflation) almost do not grow, he explains.
So, they fell for 2014-2017. In 2018 was recorded almost zero growth — by 0.2%.
In 2019, according to all forecasts, the situation could repeat last year. According to the statistical Agency, in the first quarter, disposable income fell by 2.5% in the second — by 0.1%. In the third quarter they rose by 3%, which the experts explained the low base.
According to the official forecast of economic development for 2019, real income can grow for the year by 0.1%. In the base case macroeconomic forecast for 2020 the growth of real Russians expected at 1.5%. But the chamber has doubts about the realism of this scenario, calling such estimates are too optimistic.
“The combination of falling pay and rising interest microloans suggests that loans are often paid with new loans and credits, that is built personal financial pyramid, hoping to wait out the downturn in the economy and in living standards,” warns the Director of the expert group Veta Dmitry Zharskiy.
The improvement of the situation in Russia, according to experts, in the near future is not expected. Conservative economic policies does not imply the imminent reforms and the financial authorities are betting on the creation of reserves and on large infrastructure construction sites, which if they lead to a significant increase in the level of life, only in 7-10 years, he said.
Analysts believe that the demand for loans will increase in the near future, a formal microfinance institution will not satisfy it in full. As a result, the Russians can go for the borrowed funds in illegal MFIs.
Concern is expressed by the CPS. According to the study the market of microloans he spoke about the main risks for the consumers of the market of MFIs.
Due to the fact that the decline in the percentage of positive decisions on granting of microloans MFIs included in the state registry increased number of requests to MFIs that are in the shade, reported the office.
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