Guard: wages are falling?

That means a reduction in the nominal wage — the Russians have less to pay or employers simply evade taxes.

Analysts of the Institute for regional problems, said on the reduction of nominal wages in 69 regions of the country. On the official website of the Institute says that the experts analyzed the data of Rosstat in August 2019. Most notable was the fall in wages in the Murmansk oblast — 12,2%, in Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Chukotka Autonomous district — slightly more than 9%.

In Karachay-Cherkessia, in addition, a 5.2% increase in unemployment. In St. Petersburg the fall of nominal wages by 6.25% was accompanied by a rise in unpaid or delayed salaries by 20% and the rising debt load of the population, reads the website of the Institute. In Leningrad region the level of nominal wages decreased slightly by 1.2%, but the debts on them have increased by 22.8%. In Karelia the study dropped by 7.8%, however, 8.6% unemployment has increased on 18,8% — wage arrears. In some regions the situation is similar.

“This decline we document for the first time. Need to see what it involves, and how long will this trend,” — said “Rosbalt” by the Director of the Institute of regional problems Dmitry Zhuravlev.

According to him, until recently, a decline in nominal wages, in principle, was not. “We could talk about the fall in real disposable income, but to reduce official salaries have been made. Although, it’s happening now. In turn the salaries are very significantly affect the crime situation in the regions. While reducing the level of life level of social activity in the negative direction increases dramatically”, he said.

However, to draw conclusions based on analysis in just one month is not worth it, says a leading researcher at the Laboratory of the research enterprise of the Institute for applied economic research (IPEA) of Ranepa by Natalia Zubarevich. She said to “Rosbalt” that wages can only be compared for six months or a year. Monthly analysis also gives the fluctuation, that is, the indicators here and there jump, and any conclusions from this is difficult to do.

According to the Director of the Center for market research HSE George Ostapkovich, the decrease of nominal wages by 2-3% may vary with the season. In the spring and summer aktiviziruyutsya trade and agriculture: rising profits — growing nominal wages, which include not only salary, but also all bonuses, and incentive payments. By the end of summer in nominal wages begin to fall slowly, to be replaced by Prenew year’s growth at the expense of bonuses and 13th salaries.

“In addition, nominal wages all the time walks from the shadows, and we have still more than 20% of enterprises are in the gray zone. For example, I get 100 rubles. 50 rubles — officially, I’m in paint, and another 50 roubles in an envelope. And these organizations fully. Comes up to me and the employer says: I’m going 60 rubles to pay “vbeluyu”, and 40 rubles unofficially. That is how it was 100 rubles, and have remained, but in reporting Rosstat is the growth of nominal wages by 20%. Moreover, the wage in this scheme can either increase or decrease, if the employer wants to evade taxes. Therefore, data on the fall in nominal wages does not necessarily mean that people have less to. Perhaps they pay the same. Just enterprises not to deduct tax, begin to reduce the “white” part of the salary in their reporting,” explained Ostapkovich.

According to Rosstat, in 2019, nominal wages did not fall in August. In 40 regions, the decline continued in September, which ends the official statistics. In 34 regions, this trend holds for the past three or four months. In the Vladimir region indicator in principle, not much has changed over the past nine months: in January 2019 with a nominal salary was 31220 rubles, and in September — 31292 of the ruble. The same situation in Saratov and Arkhangelsk regions. Given the fact that the average wage is 65% of the income of citizens, I can only imagine what is happening with the income that several years fall.

However, in the opinion of Ostapkovich to judge social processes in the country the nominal wage is still not worth it as it is quite a crafty figure, and much depends on what it wants to show the officials the employer. But at the same time, these data allow us to draw some conclusions about the state of the economy in the regions. If industry, construction, agriculture and entrepreneurship they do not develop from there to take the wage growth? If the economy as a whole subject all in order, and nominal wages are not rising, this may suggest that local employers somehow more profitable to hide the real wage from the government.

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