Analysts said whether in Ukraine, the shortage of gasoline, and what will happen with fuel prices.
The price of gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine is stubbornly creeping up. At the beginning of November the average price of grade A-95+ reached 28,08 UAH/l, diesel fuel – 24,83 UAH/l. a Number of media and analysts announce disappointing forecasts about the coming shortage of gasoline and as a consequence – the next leap in fuel prices, which will push the prices on products. Is there any reason for concern – they understood the experts.
So will there be a deficit?
Petrol became more expensive in September. The reason is the weakening of the hryvnia due to seasonal factors and rising oil prices on the world market. If the national currency has stabilized, oil prices continued to strengthen its position, soaring to a two-year price record in November.
Another important factor is that a shutdown for repair of the Mozyr refinery in September. Belarusian oil refineries makes up 37% of the Ukrainian market for diesel and 75% gasoline. According to the plan, the plant was expected to reach full operation mode at the end of October, but official information about the completion of the overhaul has not been received. This is why the pessimistic predictions of gasoline shortages and price increases.
However, the Mozyr oil refinery is working normally from day to day. Moreover, there are other factors that negate the effect of the stay of the Belarusian plant.
“First, about the repair of the refinery has long been known, and traders have made stocks. Second, increased production of gasoline “Ukrgazvydobuvannya” that “Ukrnafta”, which return the market to itself. Ukrainian gasoline has become more”, – said the analyst consulting company UPECO Alexander Sirenko.
The Association of oil traders “Association of oil market operators of Ukraine” also are urged not to overestimate the role of repair in the Belarusian plant.
“Situational there is no shortage, because the main market players, a serious traders, they were ready for it, they did stocks. In addition, it is Belarus. If your fault are shortfalls in the budget (and oil, a large part of the budget of Belarus), you then not the oil is distilled, and digging peat. All the right amounts they reserved. Its obligations under all long-term contracts, the plant does”, – said the President of Association Leonid kosyanchuk.
Horror stories and cartels
Thus, in Ukraine there are no objective reasons for shortages of gasoline and the rapid jump in fuel prices in the near future. At the same time, much depends on the behavior of oil on the world market and the position of the hryvnia. In particular, the draft state Budget-2018 laid a marked weakening of the national currency the forecast rate for the end of next year is to 30.1 UAH/$.
Also, besides the objective, there are subjective, artificially created factors that determine fuel prices. This is well illustrated by the suspicious jump in the price of autogas at the end of August.
“At the moment this horror. Objective reasons for the shortage of gas. These messages fit into the Canon of information-psychological operation. But we must understand that in the Ukrainian market of petroleum products has successfully implemented a variety of cartels, which can lead to price jumps. Assimilated technology that artificially creates a shortage, prices soar and the deficit leveled and prices are falling, but not to the original level,” – said in comments energoekspert and President of the Center for global studies “Strategy XXI” Michael Gonchar.
If we exclude the risk of artificially created shortages, fuel prices in the near future promise to stabilize.
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