Economists pessimistic estimate the impact of national projects in Russia’s GDP

Economists at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova and Natalia Lavrova doubt that the implementation of national projects in Russia will have a strong effect on GDP growth of the country.

“Despite the fact that the plan of national projects assumes an annual gross expenditure at 4.2% of GDP in 2019-2021, net direct effect on growth will be equivalent to just 0.2% of GDP per year”, — noted in the review “National projects. The effect on economic growth” (have RBC).

However, experts, in addition to the direct effect on economic growth, the fact of spending significant funds on a solution to the problem of “structural bottlenecks” can create a multiplier effect. Thus, do not rule out Lavrov and Orlov, indirect effect on economic growth from the implementation of national projects can average no more than 0.1% of GDP in 2019-2021.

Recall that to perform the tasks set in the may decree of President Vladimir Putin, was approved descriptions of 12 projects. They will be implemented in such areas as demographics, health, education, science, culture, housing and the urban environment, ecology, safe and quality roads, productivity and support employment, digital economy, small and medium enterprises, international cooperation and export. In addition, the 13th national project is considered to be a Comprehensive plan for the modernization and expansion of trunk infrastructure. National projects will be implemented before 2024. The total budget of national projects of 25.7 trillion.

Earlier, the Chairman of Russian government Dmitry Medvedev called national projects “drawing the future of Russia”, and the value of their total funding “unprecedented.”

However, economists warn of Alfa-Bank, the size of budget expenditures is not an analogue of the stimulus that will get the Russian economy. Besides, they add, the structure of projects implies that the main contribution to GDP growth will be in the first 2 years of implementation.

In the beginning of April, the auditor of the accounts chamber Mikhail Men, speaking at the government hour in the state Duma, complained that the system of monitoring and control in projects “unfortunately, growing”.

According to him, the situation monitor the Council under the RF President on strategic development also established a special working group at level of Presidium of Council, reporting forms project office of the government, the functions of the control exercised by the Ministry of Finance and economic development.

However, said Men, the performers of national projects overloaded with external monitoring. The situation can be improved to create a unified system to manage all projects.

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