Economist: Belarusian Assembly-line production is doomed to death

Belarus has a relatively good performance of exports, while the share of national value added in exports is higher than in many European countries. This figure does not reflect the real situation.

Photo: Alexander Chuguev, TUT.BY

The devil is in the details. In the export structure, the main added value accounted for the supply of raw materials, machinery and equipment — reported on Kastrychnicki economy forum scientific Director of the IPM Research center Irina Tochitskaya.

This structure, according to experts, carries great risks for Belarusian exports in the future.

Lilliputians in the land of giants

— The Belarusian processing and engineering of high added value. In theory, Belarus would by them add to the GDP growth, but in practice it is now almost impossible, — said the chief economist “PF Capital” Evgenie Nadorshin.

Among the main trade partners of Belarus no countries had very high economic growth and there would be excess capacity in the segments that would like to enter the Belarusian exporters. In the vast majority of cases, the Belarusian export will be a very serious competition. And not always honest.

— See what’s happening around: trade wars, sanctions, fees. Almost the whole world is busy doing anything but establish trade relations. The competition lately on the level of restriction, regulation and slogan “buy national” — says the expert.

Ineffective and attempts to stimulate exports by the state. The soft loans granted to buyers of Belarusian products in Europe is not popular, he recognizes the Chairman of the Board of the development Bank of the Republic of Belarus Andrei Zhishkevich.

— The importer in the EU there is no need for our export lending. Interest rates are very favorable in the domestic market for European — are standard, — says the head of the development Bank.

However, the main reason for the decline of competitiveness of Belarusian exports is happening in the world of technological breakthrough.

— BelAZ in the form as it is now, is not really even necessary. There is a modular unmanned dump trucks that are stacked like cars in a train, depending on the nature of the work performed, — says Evgeny Nadorshin.

While modern technologies are dramatically changing the manufacturing landscape.

— Tesla in just 9 months built a plant in China, and the volumes there will be, we never dreamed of. We are just midgets compared to the current giants of mechanical engineering, — said the expert.

Similar is the situation with the vast majority of other Belarusian machinery and equipment.

— Belarusian Assembly-line production is doomed to death. And it will happen in the coming years, — says Evgeny Nadorshin.

A chance for Belarusian exports

At the same time, Belarusian companies can still be save if you convert to a narrow specialization.

— The demand for limited-edition, custom-made product will continue. He has a chance to find its niche in the global market. But this requires a radical restructuring of the management of consciousness, flexibility and freedom in decision making — the economist “PF Capital”.

Agree with him and scientific Director of the Research center of IPM.

— We are not ready for modern challenges and too little attention to the fact that the world is changing approaches, business models, and Soviet ways of management no longer work, — says Irina Tochitskaya.

The main opportunities for growth of the Belarusian export Evgeny Nadorshin sees the building up of the provision of medical, logistics, IT and other services.

— Don’t rest on trade in goods. To be a modern country in the modern world, it is necessary to increase the export of services. That’s what today grow global markets, and what is still in short supply, — says the expert.
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