The dollar, which jumped to 67 in mid-August, in early September, again began to decline and has already reached 64. On Friday, September 20, at the Moscow exchange for a “green” gave of 64.01 RUB the Euro also fell from 74 to 70,55. It seems that if it goes on like this, “wooden” may return to the July lows of 62 to the dollar.
Some experts on the wave of positive news has started to give optimistic forecasts of the ruble before the end of the year. So, General Director IK “Oriole Capital” Andrey Khokhrin believes that the national currency is fully able to strengthen to the dollar 60-62 and 65-67 for the Euro.
According to experts, the risks to the domestic currency of the minimum, but there are a number of factors that speak in favor of consolidation. The lack of public debt and the “zero leverage” and lead to at least modest economic success, making the ruble an attractive investment object.
“The interest in the ruble due to the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. The key rate is 7 percent with an inflation rate of just over 4 percent, may be classified only as high. We live in a unique country where the interest on the deposits completely cover the inflationary losses. The Bank of Russia fights for the stability of the national currency and defeats in their struggle,” says dollar expert.
However, he calls and risks for a course “wooden”. This fall in oil prices, the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions and the real risk, “the global equity correction.” If overheating of the major world markets will lead to a rigid drawdown, with the ruble it will play a cruel joke. Investors begin to withdraw money from “safe havens”, which today is our stock and currency market. However, this risk is now delayed in time, as major Central banks of the planet soften its monetary policy, increasing liquidity.
As suggested by Khokhrin, “ruble risks still not in the agenda of the next weeks or months. While interest and debt indicators of the domestic currency continue to adjust to its further strengthening.”
However, not all economists agree with such predictions and believe them to be overly optimistic. And in the case of the exchange rate is always better to be alert. Chief analyst of Bank “Solidarity” Alexander Abramov believes that by the end of the year, the ruble is much more likely to fall than grow. And if the revolution really weakening starts, it may surpass the lows of 2016.
— From the beginning of 2016, when it met the minimums of the ruble, and the dollar exceeded the mark of 80, our currency is in a kind of triangle. There is a declining trajectory: ruble passes through 80 per dollar in early 2016, 70 in the autumn and winter of last year, and now he’s in the area 64.
And there is a rising trend, which goes through the lows of the beginning of last year, around 56 per dollar. Then to 62.5 in July of this year, and now he goes up to 64. Accordingly, before the end of the year, the triangle will close, and the ruble will go in one of two ways: either much stronger or begin to weaken. The question is, what scenario awaits us.
“SP”: — Which scenario do you think is more likely?
— Now the indicator of country risk in Russia (the so-called index CDS — credit-default swaps on state debt) is at its lowest level since mid-2007. Even in the period of high oil prices, this index has always been higher. This means that the ruble debt market is now very much overheated, and the stock market too. Oil costs about $ 60 per barrel and our stock market, if you count it in dollar terms the RTS is the same as in periods when oil traded twice, and there were no sanctions.
On the other hand, in the U.S. stock market is starting certain processes. Last week on the interbank market, the United States dramatically increased the rate on REPO transactions. This means that the problems started with liquidity. The fed was forced first to provide liquidity to $ 75 billion, now it’s about the fact that the amount will increase to 165. And by the end of October can be taken to more drastic measures.
Despite the fact that it in theory should lead to the strengthening of the ruble, if we look at what happened last time, when there was such phenomenon, as it was in 2007-2008, we see that the period of strengthening has been limited. But then began a strong devaluation of the ruble.
If the liquidity crisis in international financial markets will grow, will start the flight of capital from assets that have grown in recent years, the ruble is strongly prosyadet.
My opinion is that the closer to the end of the year the ruble will emerge from the triangle in which it lies the past four years, and will start weakening.
“SP”: — How strong is it weakening?
By the end of this year it can be levels up to 70-75 rubles per dollar. And the first half of next year, if you really start weakening, we exceed the highs witnessed in 2016. I will Remind you that the dollar exceeded 80 rubles.
Leading expert of the International financial center Vladimir rozhankovsky believes that such a negative scenario will not come, but any particular reason for the strengthening of the ruble does not see.
— I do not foresee any sudden movements up to the end of the year. Let me explain why. Now a unique system of factors, which mutually balance each other, if we talk about the three big currencies — the ruble, the dollar and the Euro.
On the one hand, the fed lowered the rate. I watched the speech of the fed Jerome Powell from the beginning to the end, and I can say that his tone was pretty scared. It was obvious that it was a little off with his “treadmill”. This suggests that the fed will continue to take extraordinary measures until the end of the year, possibly another lowering of rates.
This step traditionally has a negative impact on the currency, in this case, on the dollar. Yet he still holds, but this condition, which can be called “information a concussion.” I think the dollar will weaken, especially as this long wants Donald trump.
But, on the other hand, the Euro, now the situation is almost the same. As head of the ECB comes Christine Lagarde, who previously headed the IMF. It adopts a softer policy than the outgoing Mario Draghi. In fact the situation, when competing countries wish to increasingly devalue their currency in order to benefit from international trade, we call “currency wars.”
In the near future will begin the soft phase is a currency war. And the other reason for the dollar to strengthen not. Rates fall, and with them the foreign capital flows in the U.S. will fall.
“SP”: — Is the ruble can not take advantage of it?
— The ruble has its own negative history. This is the end of the year. At the end of the year, historically our currency is never achieved. So it would be strange to predict it now. It so happened that at the end of the year, the ruble is almost never expensive.
That’s kind of a strange situation when the dollar is weak, the Euro seems to be too weak, and the ruble is weak cyclically. Although our currency could grow, because oil will be higher because of the situation in Saudi Arabia. I think we are far from finished this story. The predictions that after a month everything will be restored, turned out to be premature. Judging by the photos, so a quick fix will fail, and that, at the moment, 5% of world production.
Oil will rise in our Eastern hemisphere there is a shortage of supply. The ruble, as a rule, grows well along with oil, of course, if it does not interfere with the Central Bank. But I don’t think he will interfere, as the currency purchased is enough, and large Central Bank intervention is not needed.
All currencies in the big three are weak. So I don’t know what needs to happen to break the current levels of 64 rubles per dollar, both down and up. Maybe we will lose against the Euro, which may strengthen to 73. But in tandem with the dollar, we are now quite balanced.
Of course, there is always a news topic. Tweets of Donaldtrump, the situation in the Persian Gulf — they cannot be written off, so variations are possible. But in General, the current dollar exchange rate is an equilibrium one, and I think it will continue until the end of the year.
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.
