Russia’s military operation in Ukraine raises questions about the balance of losses and gains for major stakeholders and global actors. When it comes to Moscow and Kiev, this balance is yet to be determined.
As of now, the hostilities continue and no political settlement has been worked out, so it’s hard to say whether the parties can achieve their political objectives, for which a huge price has already been paid in human lives and economic damage of colossal proportions. The prospects for other global and regional players – the EU, the US, China, Japan and Iran, among others – are much clearer.
The European Union is sustaining damage and losses due to numerous severed trade and economic ties with Russia. The key challenge is to find alternatives to Russian oil, gas, metals, and other commodities on the European market. This will require a great concentration of resources and political will. It will affect the growth of the EU economy and determine how competitive its industry will be in the coming years.
Nevertheless, however painful it may be, Russian raw materials can be replaced. For oil, it won’t take long, while Russian gas is a bit harder to cut. The situation will be different from nation to nation within the bloc, as their levels of dependency on Russian resources vary. Still, a range of Russian goods can likely be replaced within a few years.
Regardless of the developments on the Ukrainian front and Russia’s foreign policy, pushing Moscow out of the common market will be a long-term process.
The EU has to take care of Ukrainian refugees. This is not an easy task. The situation is changing rapidly, making an accurate assessment impossible, but we are clearly talking about millions of people. The EU nations need to accept these refugees and help them to adapt and even integrate. Many European countries will have to spend more on social programs. At the same time, this will benefit the EU in the medium term. It has extensive experience dealing with migrants. Germany especially excels at this. Unlike migrants from Islamic countries, Ukrainians aren’t that different from EU Europeans in terms of culture. They are better educated, adapt and integrate faster, and don’t tend to form closed communities. For the economy, this will be a great demographic injection.
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