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Anatomy of a rumor: the protests have become an epidemic

Анатомия слухов: протесты становятся эпидемией

Despite the decline in protest activity in the capital, in the whole country the government after the election, waiting for hard times.

The presidential administration is preparing for a major electoral storm. Rumor has it that the Kremlin has even pulls in the media untrue information about the mood of the population.

Fear of the second round

The authorities spread rumors that the upcoming 8 September elections of governors in any region there is currently no plan of the second round. Allegedly everywhere in the first round winning candidates from the government. The “local characteristics” the role of almost not playing. Even if candidates were selected at the last moment, as in the Irkutsk region, or the population has the vaguest idea how in the Astrakhan region.

Most, however, is breath-taking situation in St. Petersburg, where disapproval of the acting Governor Alexander Beglov, as rumor has it, much higher than his own rating. In any relatively high turnout in the first place will be a protest vote. The only question is, what is it expressed. The authorities would prefer to spoiled ballots.

The other option is to vote for any of the two remaining conditional alternative candidates. In fact, until recently, there were three of them. However, nominated by the Communist party directed by Vladimir Bortko, which at the beginning of the campaign, many were amused, in the background of the reluctance of St Petersburg to vote for Beglov started (if you believe the leaks about the results of closed opinion polls) so rapidly to gain points that he chose to remove from the race, clearly asking to abandon the struggle.

Bortko did not hide the fact that he took this decision under pressure. And it is unclear that promised a well-deserved pensioner. Here, for example, the representative “Fair Russia” Oksana Dmitrieva, when she was persuaded not to go on elections, as rumour has promised parliamentary mandate, which she lost in 2016.

In any case, the authorities show you what you can and are willing to use force and administrative pressure in the election. But with the popularity of the Kremlin candidates weak. This makes the results of the upcoming September 8 elections was so low predskazanie.

In this regard, rumor has it that in the coming days detention and administrative arrest “uncomfortable” opposition will continue not only in the capital but also spread to the regions. The politicization of campaigns where the authorities are waiting with great fear. What to say, even if returned to Russia only in 2014, Sevastopol already complaining about dirty campaign for elections in city legislative Assembly. There, as in Moscow, inconvenient candidates simply removed from the elections, leaving the voters the opportunity to “let off steam” by voting even for the moderate opposition.

The Kuril Islands on the horizon

At the same time on the foreign policy front from the Russian authorities is likely success. At the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe at the Eastern economic forum, as suggested earlier, Japanese Prime Minister invited the Russian leader to conclude between countries, a peace Treaty was never signed between Tokyo and Moscow after the Second world war. Abe, as they say, is also ready to maintain and restore the G8 and returning to Russia.

Already there has been a new wave of rumors about the timing, which can be signed a peace Treaty, and the terms on which Russia and Japan finally agree to do it. Vladimir Putin himself has mentioned the Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956, and it means that two of the four disputed, from the Japanese point of view, of the Islands (Shikotan and Habomai ridge), can give after the signing of the peace Treaty. That is, in this vein, Moscow is ready to negotiate now.

But the timing sources close to the Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, referred to as very vague. Most likely, prepared the peace Treaty will be not before 2020. So the Japanese will have to wait.

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