A-95 forecast that the gas shortage will continue until mid-September.
Retail prices for liquefied gas will grow due to big supply shortages caused by a number of adverse factors.
It is reported by the Consulting group a-95.
From 1 July to 17 August, the wholesale price of propane-butane grew by 63% and exceeded 24 thousand UAH/t – an absolute record for all history of observations. The cost of gas at the border during this period has doubled, due to the acute shortage of the resource.
According to the analyst, A-95 Artem Kuyun, liquefied gas deficit in Ukraine is now estimated at 30 thousand tons, which is about 20% of the monthly needs of the market in this period.
According to the expert, promptly to replace the missing gas volumes will fail. As key manufacturers of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are themselves experiencing shortages due to maintenance works at plants that have already led to the disappearance of free volumes in the market throughout Eastern Europe, particularly Poland. “Imports from the West also complicated by infrastructure limitations — the necessity of rearrangement of cars from narrow gauge to broad,” — noted in the A-95.
In addition, the experts group indicated significant delays in movement of wagons on the territory of Ukraine, especially in Odessa region.
“Due to the lack of locomotives and the delivery of wagons for loading to Romania and back takes about 40 days to work with as the shoulder is very risky and expensive,” — says Kuiun.
According to him, the low turnover of cars is also not possible to expand the efficient delivery of gas with the sea, where today the price is much lower than in Ukraine.
In this case, an additional factor in the destabilization of the supply may be a change in the licensing requirements of transport fuels. Regulatory authorities have already announced that from September 1 will require a license, but most companies do not have time to execute the necessary documents.
A-95 forecast that the gas shortage will continue until mid-September. This will encourage high prices in the opt, and, consequently, in retail. According to experts, based on the level of the wholesale price of 24 thousand UAH per ton, the retail price of autogas reached range 14,5-14,7 UAH/liter.
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