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Will Russia be able to repeat the Syrian scenario in Venezuela

Сможет ли Россия повторить сирийский сценарий в Венесуэле

New local military conflict which could have global implications is brewing in Venezuela. Donald trump made a dispatch of us military. “Of course, it’s possible that one of the options”, — said the President of the United States aired on CBS.

In addition, the press was able to remove the entry in the Notepad of the trump adviser for national security John Bolton: “five thousand soldiers in Colombia”. And on 7 February is scheduled to meet Colombian President Ivan Duque with the American President. Coincidence?

Moscow to ignore such facts could not. “The United States does not hide the fact that I want to change the regime at any cost… trump says he leaves on the table the option of military intervention. This undermines all the foundations of international law”, — said Sergey Lavrov.

The anger of the Russian foreign Ministry is clear. In Venezuela in the eyes of the situation the second Syria. Russia for its intervention in the middle East expected to stop the practice of violations of international law. Will now have to intervene in Latin America too? Especially considering that there are economic interests of Russia in Venezuela. It contracts in the framework of military-technical cooperation service technology and massive investments in the oil sector of this country. Is the sum of 17 billion dollars.

However, if you have enough Russian forces to intervene militarily? Venezuela — not a passing light. Perhaps, so long as we act in the diplomatic field. The promised establishment of the dialogue based on the proposals of Mexico and Uruguay who have announced support for Maduro.

Unexpected help came from Italy, which vetoed the EU’s decision on the recognition of Guido interim President. To split the West on the Venezuelan question — well worth it.

A lot depends on how the situation will develop within the Venezuela. Last weekend in Caracas held street demonstrations of opponents and supporters of Maduro, but to talk about the superiority of one party prematurely.

Thus, Guido continue to run some officials and even the military. Among the latter, General of the air force. No wonder Maduro has made the escalation of the political crisis into a civil war with US support. “It all depends on the level of madness and aggression of the Northern Empire,” he explained.

The scientist-americanist, expert of the Center for security studies of RAS Konstantin Blokhin expects that Washington could use to invade Venezuela third force.

— Large-scale invasion of the United States, such as in Iraq or Afghanistan, I rule. Because Venezuela could turn to trump in the Latin American Vietnam. Intervention consolidates Venezuelans against America and will only strengthen the regime of Maduro. It is unknown whether this will bring advantages to Americans. Practice shows that sanctions pressure more effective than brute force.

Yes, and trump is not a supporter of large-scale invasions. He’s not happy with what the United States spent 7-8 trillion. dollars in the middle East. He is a supporter of the collapse of the American military presence. But if it’s in there somewhere, let the host party pays for it. For example, now there are negotiations about the price of further stay of us military in South Korea.

So a large-scale ground invasion of Venezuela — andegraund boots (boots on the ground) likely will not.

“SP”: — Then what, what scale, the intervention most likely?

— Possible limited operation using U.S. special Forces. And not to change the regime and to eliminate the very Maduro. After all, to kill the leader is easier than to change mode.

About the need to kill Chavez a few years ago publicly declared an influential American politician Pat Robertson. And we know that then Chavez died unexpectedly from cancer. The Maduro recently also tried to attack using drones during the parade.

But there may be other scenarios. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Bolton showed the press his notebook with the entry about sending troops to Colombia. Washington doesn’t like it when American soldiers are dying, but to get controlled by Colombia to commence military operations might be.

“SP”: — Bolton after all, considered a “hawk”…

— It is symptomatic that now the main American curator for Venezuela is Elliot Abrams. It is a radical hawk, neo-conservative. It is famous for its involvement in “operation Iran — kontrans” when the CIA in secret from the Congress, with Israel, sold arms to Iran against Iraq, and the money financed the “contras” in Nicaragua. When all this came to light during the Reagan administration Abrams began to judge. But then George Bush senior, he was acquitted.

In addition, Abrams, along with Donald Ramsfeld, Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz put pressure on George Bush to start a large-scale invasion of Iraq. Abrams was part of the “Project for a new American century”, whose purpose was the preservation of US leadership in the world by any means.

If trump will fall under the influence of Abrams, the consequences will be catastrophic not only for Venezuela but for all Latin America. And so already it is clear that the United States return to a more active role in Latin America. Its failures in the middle East and in Eurasia they are trying to compensate on the South American continent, where their position is stronger.

The more that happens the growing influence of Russia and China in the Western hemisphere. Therefore, the United States want this influence to undermine.

And most likely it is synchronized with the ideas of tramp oil. He in his book “Former power of America” wrote: “My task is to reduce the price of oil to $ 20 per barrel.” Then to bankrupt all competitors who hate America and are doing with oil money. This is the same Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is guilty of September 11.

According to military expert Alexei Leonova, Venezuela prepared to repel the American invasion, if it takes place in the classical form.

— When Russia intervened in Syria, the Syrian army against the attacking side was a pitiful sight. They were attacked by terrorists armed with modern weapons, communications, intelligence. That is, it had all the advantages over the regular army of this country. Russia the balance of forces has changed, making it possible to give the terrorists back.

In Venezuela, the situation is slightly different. Military assistance we have already provided. Russia has supplied arms for about 12 billion. In the result, Venezuela has modernized its ground forces: armored units and artillery, including multiple rocket launchers.

Venezuela may build a layered air defense system. It is clear that the means of attack, which are usually used by the Americans — “Tomahawk”, the Venezuelans likely to mislead. They have complexes “tor-M1”, “Buk-M2E” and s-300VM. They will allow to cope with cruise missiles and aircraft, if they participate in the attack. Venezuela has also received aviation equipment.

So to resist the aggression of high-tech state such as the US, she can. And any landing in the tropics will be a repetition of Vietnam. To fight in “zelenke” the Americans have not learned.

“SP”: — Again proxy?

— Most likely the United States will not go to direct conflict with Venezuela. Most likely, they would rely on Colombia. Well, and can be sent to the instructors own PMCs that had previously been in Syria and other regions. This will allow the Trump at any time to “wash his hands”.

It should also be noted that the Pentagon recently lost an experienced head of James Mattis. He, as a former commander of the marine Corps had great authority in the army. With him from the Pentagon took several more experienced military leaders.

“SP”: — Apparently, no wonder February 7, trump meets with the President of Colombia.

— Yes, and before that to Colombia went to a “friend” of the joint chiefs of staff. It is not a drink, snack, to go there and assess the state of the Colombian armed forces and to give instructions on what parts will go through the border under the guise of Venezuelan rebels. After all, Guido must have their own armed units. Of course the Americans will support them with air strikes in Syria.

So much now depends on how quickly, Venezuela will be able to mobilize. Also important military assistance that can be provided by both Russia and China. I think now it is a matter of negotiations. The United States understands that we can transfer to Venezuela troops. After this conflict, the U.S.-Venezuela will turn into a conflict between the USA and Russia.

About Russian oil interests in Venezuela, said the head of analytical Department of national energy security Fund Alexander Pasechnik.

We all, of course we’re not in Venezuela, but the difficulties increase. Some projects may be revised. Problems may arise on the Deposit of “Rosneft”, which it “hangs”. Not covered by about $ 3 billion, which we gave under the supply of oil.

This oil is sent to refineries in the Indian city of Vadinar, which was funded by Rosneft. So it is strategic, for it already has a market. Now can appear difficulties in the implementation strategy for the full cycle processing of “Rosneft”.

Also expect difficulties overdue current mortgage payments. By the Ministry of Finance agreed that the body until the loan is paid, only the interest. The next tranche must be in the spring. It’s small, but it is fundamentally will or will not be delayed.

“SP”: — All affect the world oil market?

— Of course, geopolitical uncertainty in Venezuela has a beneficial effect on the price per barrel. She’s growing up.

Well, exactly how events will develop, whether in Venezuela, a second Syria or Libya, no one knows. How strong are the Americans, how will Russia react… In any case, Venezuela will have to fight. The question is, what methods. Yet, we see, we use political levers.

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