“Match” can be thrown in the “far East a stack of hay” almost any region, if the Federal centre will come to a painful point, experts say.
The possibility of a repetition in the regions of ongoing unrest in the far East depends on will learn whether the government “to communicate with the protest,” experts say.
First Vice-President of the Center for political technologies, Alexei Makarkin:
Full replication is impossible: in Khabarovsk was a factor in the Governor Furgala. I don’t take those cases, when the Governor formally elected from the opposition party, but really supported the “United Russia”, and before that was tested as the ACTING Governor appointed by the President. Do not take Smolensk, Omsk, the eagle. There are governors appointed by the President initially, and then elected with the support of the EP, based on the consolidation of the elites. Was the quota system: each opposition party (system) must be your region. But no more. The Communists at one time were Vladimir oblast Governor Nikolai Vinogradov, then became Orel. This system failed in 2015, when the Communists unexpectedly won a second region — Irkutsk region, where he defeated Sergey Levchenko. He’s gone now, did not resist. The same Alexei Ostrovsky in Smolensk — sovereign people. If you take Communist Andrey Kryuchkov in eagle, same thing — he had the support of the EP.
Besides these, there are two regions: Vladimir region and Khakassia. But nothing like Furgala there. The current Governor Vladimir Vladimir Sipyagin was generally a technical candidate who accidentally won in 2018 only antiregime the incumbent Governor. The head of Khakassia Valentin Konovalov enough a young man of ambition with him a bit.
So the model in which the centre of the arrest of the Governor, and the population stands up for it, here is a unique. If we look at the situation in the regions, where governors from power, at least not from the EP, such as Nikita Belykh in Kirov, there, no one was going to stand up for it. Furgal has positioned itself as the people’s Governor, benefactor. Twist active movie, as he rescues schoolchildren from discrimination, that all children received the same food at school. There is a word “populist”, but voters liked it. Nikita Belykh, appointed Medvedev and Moscow perceived as a people, behaved in a completely different paradigm as a reformer. Actively pursued health care reform. And he was not in the Kirov region folk hero.
Another point: the debate was whether the organization of the Khabarovsk stock? The popular view is that it is a pure element, only the people. In my opinion, the element of the organization — and not by the local organization of the liberal democratic party, which of these cases have been discharged and retained the Governor’s seat, and from the team itself Furgala they formed.
What could it be? In the regions there may be problems of another nature, the grass-roots. If residents somehow hurt, for example, large tariff increases. Then the possible exit to the street not with the slogans “long live our Governor!”, and with slogans to the contrary, more familiar to the opposition.
Co-chair of the trade Union “University solidarity”, Professor, Higher school of Economics, Pavel Kudyukin:
As tensions clearly exist, it may break at the most unexpected occasions. Therefore, events such as Khabarovsk, trudnoprohodim. People came out not for the Furgala as such, but to the defense of his choice, to demand that their voices listened.
Break maybe on non-political reasons: social, for example. This possibility always exists, but where rush and for what reason, is almost impossible to predict.
My wife for several years conducted a sociological study in the far East. What can I say? It is not like Moscow as a symbol of the Central government. What they elected was removed and sent to “Varyag” only pours kerosene on the fire. To the Amur regions and cities opposite China annoying point is as booming China, in spite of the stagnant situation we have. In Blagoveshchensk, just to move away from the landscaped promenade to the depth of the city — the broken roads and sidewalks. But rather — shining Heihe, which grew literally in a decade.
In the Khabarovsk very pained by the transfer of the border from the right Bank of the Amur river on the fairway, when China moved a couple of Islands that Khabarovsk has been traditionally used as a resting place.
Traditionally in the center of Russia, where there was serfdom, people are on average less active, less protest. This has been reflected in history. Large peasant-Cossack uprising of Razin and Pugachev choked on the borders of Central Russia, as well as the onset of the anti-Bolshevik forces in the Civil war.
Director of the Institute of globalization and social movements (IGSO) Boris Kagarlitsky:
There are two types of events. Or the spread of Khabarovsk protest in other regions of Siberia and the Far East and in Russia. The ratio of power and the prevailing social environment is about the same if not all regions, in most. In Khabarovsk just burst, and there was a reason, which actualized all the needs, contradictions and moods, all this was saved for a long time.
But there are two circumstances: still need a strong enough reason, and we need to make allowances for the specifics of the Far East and Siberia, where a somewhat different tradition. All polls have long show that self-esteem and confidence of the people in these regions more. Because not even a story, but with a higher urbanisation and a higher proportion of the inherited urban population in the second, third and even fourth generation. The rural population there is historically little. And the growth of cities was due to the overflow of population from European Russia, Ukraine and Belarus to the East, and in these cities moved the urban population, the workers and engineers.
The objective conditions are ripe everywhere. But you need a reason to focus. The power is now going to try to keep, at least until the Single voting day, September 13. But then the government itself is facing a very serious fork in decision-making. If you do not resort to the brutal fraud at the pattern of voting on amendments to the Constitution, it is likely that EP will lose miserably, all elections at any level. They will not be able to hold any Governor, and most of all, and no MP.
If 5-7-10% can be attributed (but 10% is already a scandal), now attributed to the third, if not half. A society resigned to the fact that the elections are not completely fair, but resigned to the fact that you simply draw result.
The government will either have to survive not only a defeat, including in strategic regions, such as Arkhangelsk, but national public humiliation or to take the path of aggressive falsification goes beyond all limits. That can provoke a situation like in Khabarovsk. As, for example, in Irkutsk, where it was removed from the election the most promising candidate Sergei Levchenko. But they can lose and the weaker candidate, such as Michael Shchapov. Falsification in Irkutsk Khabarovsk can have consequences.
A second point close to the explosion — Arkhangelsk. An unpopular Governor, the people of certain traditions self — respect- plus Ties, plus the vote on the accession of the Nenets Autonomous district, where not only voted for the protest, but local officials in spite of Moscow all honestly felt like it was.
So it can either be a sprawling Khabarovsk protest, or if the situation in Khabarovsk will be possible to localize, they will get some very explosive points after less than two months. Most likely, you need to wait for something mixed.
Director of the Center for the development of regional policy Ilya Graschenkov:
Any region, is dissatisfied with Moscow in charge of its political destiny, can repeat. The same anticipated Arkhangelsk, Khabarovsk, Yakutia, the same is ready to join in the protest. “Match” can be thrown in the far Eastern stack of “hay” in almost any region.
How it could spread, at least in Siberia? Novosibirsk, for example, is quite opposition of the city. The protest stems from the fact that people live badly, and at some point the Federal center is too far, stepping foot on some pressure point that he is unable to discern from Moscow.
Question — what further balancing acts of the Federal government: learn it to communicate with the protest or not? It has been thoroughly forgotten that there are people with whom they can communicate, to accept their requests, and sometimes to take a step back. We are all perceived as “the conspiracy of the elites”, and if you do not tighten the nuts not to burn this protest with fire and sword, this cancer will spread. And when an enemy turns an ordinary people, here and there is a lack of understanding of what to do with it.
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