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What threatens Russia trade war between the US and China

Чем грозит России торговая война между США и Китаем

To some it may seem that a trade war between the US and China, does Russia not concerned.

Well, what? This disassembly. We cares about them?

There are those (let’s call them optimists) who believes that Russia will only benefit from all this history, because, for example, the United States will be less supply of agricultural products to China due to the increase in relevant fees from China. And it is here that we will replace the United States as a supplier of, say, the same of soy. Well, that may be so, for some domestic manufacturers can really “draw” any benefits.

However, the facts of growing trade disagreements the US and China should not look to the “small” side, but globally. The reason: the US and China — the two largest world economy (in total about 40% of world GDP), and when the losses will be for the economies of this scale, it is by definition bad for the entire world economy.

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Now the question is: how bad it all may be affected. Very bad. Why? Yes, because the world economy reduces its pace of growth. Moreover, it is almost ripe for another global economic crisis is cyclical in nature.

I recall that the last such crisis was in 2008-2009. Russia very painfully experienced it. The country’s GDP in 2009 has fallen by almost 8%, significantly depreciated ruble.

Today, the world economy ripe for crisis. It is overheated, bubbles, primarily in the stock markets, inflated, speculators are nervous (see how they shy away at the slightest suspicion that “it seems to have started”). In such a situation, the crisis is bound to be. The only question that can serve as a “trigger” for the beginning of the crisis. In 2008, this “hook” was the collapse of the American investment Bank Lehman Brothers. Today, the burgeoning trade war between the US and China is just perfect for this role.

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So all of these “floats” between the US and China threaten the beginning of another world economic crisis is cyclical in nature. If we take into account that compared to 2008-2009 in Russia today, there was a powerful negative an aggravating factor in the form of sanctions, counter-sanctions, the prospects of the Russian economy seen in a completely unimportant.

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