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What kind of hole hit Russia

В какую яму угодила Россия

Explaining the causes of population decline in the country, our government says about anything, but not about his socio-economic policy agenda.

Natural population decline in Russia by the end of 2019 with a high probability will exceed 300 thousand people. Such a result “Rosbalt” predicted six months ago, and, it seems, everything goes to the fact that this prediction will come true. In any case, if we take the data of Rosstat, in the ten months of 2019 population decline in the country amounted to nearly 260 thousand people. This is more than in all of 2018, during which the population of Russia decreased by 224,5 thousand people.

Note that the population decline in Russia in 2017 amounted to RUR 134.4 thousand. And in 2016 she was at only 2.2 thousand. In other words, we see that in 2016 the population decline (after three years of small growth in 2013-2015) is once again on the rise.

Recall that indicators such as “decrease” or “increase” of the population are generated from data on births and deaths. So, if to believe statistics, those numbers are decreasing in the number of inhabitants of the Russian Federation, which we now available, are added mainly due to the slump in the birth rate in the last four years.

So, in 2016 the birth rate has decreased by almost 52 thousand infants, compared with 2015. In 2017 already on 198 thousand, and in 2018 were born in Russia 85 thousand children less than in the previous year. For ten months of 2019 were born in the country to 102 thousand children less than in the same period last year.

In total, 2019, we can expect approximately the level of fertility decline as in the previous year — around 80-85 thousand. In other words, stabilized, not the birth rate, and the rate of decline.

However, there has been a deterioration of the situation and with other indicators — mortality. In previous articles on this subject we drew attention to the fact that data on mortality in Russia do not correspond to the socio-economic situation in the country. Simply put, the past six years, the standard of living in the Russian Federation continues to fall, including lower incomes, and the deterioration of the health of the population due to the closure and mergers of hospitals and clinics, layoffs of doctors, paramedics and nurses, and mortality rates, by contrast, is improved. And here, according to the latest corrected data of the Federal state statistics service in 2018, we see that mortality statistics are now also deteriorating. In 2018, the mortality rate in Russia compared with 2017, it turns out, has not decreased by 6.6 million, and increased by 4.5 thousand people.

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Many experts noted that migration, which for more than two decades compensated for the loss of Russia, now hope less. In 2018 in the Russian Federation was the lowest migration gain since 2005. Entered the country from foreign countries 565685 people, and back went 440831. Accordingly, the migration gain amounted to only 124854 person is the lowest in the last 13 years. Thus, natural decline, which, recall, in the same 2018 made in Russia 224566 people, migration compensated for by about half.

And count is not particularly what. Migration resources “near abroad” is pretty much exhausted, and those that are, are redirected to other, more comfortable for migrants.

Here and there familiar in the ninetieth years of the phrase “demographic hole”, which the authorities in Russia begins to juggle when you have to explain the population decline, without affecting its socio-economic policy, which leads to this phenomenon.

Talk about a variety of demographic hole was very popular with government officials and similar experts in the 1990-ies. When the end of this decade, world oil prices began to grow by leaps and bounds, and this was something perepast not only big business and bureaucrats, but the rest of the population of Russia, talking about the demographic the pits subsided, as economic growth there has been and increase in the birth rate, and a decrease in mortality.

Today, when Russia returns to the population decline of the magnitude eleven years ago, the theory of “demographic Yam” at the top once again in demand.

Here as explained to journalists the reasons for the current decline in the population of the country, the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov: “Indeed, the demographic hole, which is repeatedly explained by our President and all leaders of the social field, is now in its climax. Of course this is very unpleasant. The clash between two demographic hole in one.” According to him, the current demographic crisis — the “legacy of the past decades the history of our country, which we now carry on their shoulders”.

Of course, a very convenient explanation for the official, because it leads the country’s leadership from responsibility for the current state of Affairs in this area. Convenient but not very convincing. Try to understand what are these two demographic hole, which, according to the presidential press Secretary, met in our days in one.

Under the first “pit” probably refers to a sharp population decline as the result of the great Patriotic war, under the second “hole” of the economic crisis of the early 1990-ies. View, it corresponds to the real numbers of fertility or not.

In the mid 1980-ies in Russia in the age of childbearing entered the small generation of those born in the mid 1960-ies from an even smaller military and post-war generation. However, in the mid-eighties, we see the growth of birth rate in the Russian Federation. According to the statistical Yearbook “National economy of the USSR” for the relevant years, in 1984 was born the 2,409 million babies in 1985 — 2,375 million, in 1986 — almost 2,486 million, in 1987 — 2,499 million

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But in the early nineties started not just a recession, but a real collapse in fertility, which (of course, by chance) coincided with the reforms undertaken at this time. At the end of 1992 (the first year of the reforms) was born on 912 thousand (nearly a million!) babies less than five years before that — 1,587 million, compared to the 2,499 million in 1987. In 1993, even less — 1,378 million, And so (with small fluctuations), the decline in fertility went down to the lowest point, which was achieved in 1999 when the light appeared only 1,214 million children.

So, first the demographic decline, we understand. The numbers in the birth rate clearly suggests that by the middle of 1980-ies demographic wounds received by the country as a result of the Second world war, was clearly healed, and the collapse of the birth rate in the 1990 — 2000s years connected with quite different socio — economic — reasons.

If we view the statistics in the second “hole” — the beginning of the nineties, we see that here with this theory, especially not vytantsovyvaetsya. Indeed, as we have seen, in the early 1990-ies fell sharply the birth rate. Accordingly, twenty years later (generation step) we, in theory, should have expected another failure of fertility. However, if this is so, then not really.

According to Rosstat, in 2011 in Russia was born 1,796 million kids, by the end of 2012 1,902 million in 2013, 1.895 million, and in 2014 — 1,942 million That is, instead of “pit” which, in theory, was to come at the beginning of the 2010s we see or slight variations or even a small increase in the birth rate. And only at the end of 2016 begins another collapse, which was spoken in the beginning of this article.

Interestingly, this collapse, as in the early nineties, again (and again quite by accident!) coincided with the reduction in the standard of living and income of citizens of Russia. And with the inevitable, as then, the growth of the feeling of hopelessness and futility. The psychological factor in the demographics, too, because no one has canceled. And he, in turn, derives from the socio-economic. Here for sure — “the pit”…

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