By the beginning of 2019, the position of the head of Russia appear to be clearly weaker than a year earlier. The question trembled the Foundation of his power.
Let’s start with the indisputable. The popularity of the leader in the past year went down faster than ever in less than a twentieth of his reign. To see it, do not even need ratings survey services. From the reflections of ordinary citizens in the kitchens, and the streets should be the same.
Officials grumble low and medium level, if not close colleagues. The growing discontent of the youth and more people of middle age. Whisper frowned upon wealthy citizens (according to plausible reports Thomas about the attitudes of upper income groups, 15 per cent of Russians).
Irritation and despondency are worn in the atmosphere. In response to this, the community with our political analysts gradually sinking into previously forbidden topics. Often heard the expression “transit authority” (i.e., replacing Putin with someone else) and the “split of elites” (i.e. the division of authorities into rival teams, each of which will move their leader or has already started to do).
Will provide scientists to creatively apply the different political theories to our reality and to sketch in broad strokes the various pictures of the future. But my own task will formulate it easier.
At the disposal of our regime is the people, there are political and power support on which it stands, there are privileged groups that push their interests, and there is, finally, the style of communication with all of them. This, taken together, make up our system. Let’s try to answer a simple question: did the links, which has embarked on the “transit of power”, since these words are all so fond of?
Let’s start with the highest style of communication. I think still its charm is lost forever. None of the speeches of Vladimir Putin in 2018, including software, obviously, did not become a social event. “Retirement” speech at the end of August, designed to change people’s sentiments, passed almost unnoticed. A long interview with the updated composition of the presidential Council on human rights have caused at best puzzled. What was said of United Russia at their next Congress, nobody remembered. The annual press conference held a week ago, already forgotten.
Statements by the leader are perceived as ambiguous, unself, turned not into the future and into the past, and beyond measure loaded with threats near and far countries. All this is not in resonance with the feelings of people who are tired of belt-tightening, ridiculous propaganda and persistently fanned fears of nuclear war.
As for the chiefs a more modest level, the only possible way for them to attract people’s attention were the scandals around lost or rigged elections, and even more due to the clown public antics next nomenklatura. Few who was formerly an official in the Sverdlovsk Glackin for a month and a half has managed to become a superstar, whose foolish chatter, business Rodney, stay on vacation in a warm country, cover in the form of selfless intercession of the regional Governor and, finally, the reluctant resignation subsequently became a national news scale.
Can therefore be noted that in 2018, the public style of the governing class in all its links, up to the first person, nor in one of its new variations has not been acceptable to the people. This was one of the main causes of the common fall of the authority of the government. Moreover, the accepted authoritative bar partly with indifference and partly with a sort of ostentatious bravado. Many officials used any means to tell the masses what does and does not looking for their respect, not going to fit your depraved way of life to their expectations and generally despise the common people. 2018 was the year of the discarded draperies.
Ordinary people responded with rejection of the governing class. But it was passive and they broke out only in small street protests, and several electoral failures of the state-owned candidates. Wide protest wave that tops with the fear of waiting in response to the reform of pensions, did not happen. An unprecedented surge in mutual disrespect of rulers and ruled to a straight fight, contrary to widespread assumptions, failed.
The reason — a sharp strengthening of the repressive nature of the system. Waving his hand at persuasion, the regime is now punishing all who turned up. In 2018, became punishable even harmless and quite systematic in recent the standards of protest. Coordinated meetings suddenly prohibited, and their members fall into paddy wagons. To say nothing of inconsistent. The fact that the rules have changed, seen by many illustrative cases, of which the story of Lev Ponomarev — only the most famous.
Special attention was paid to prevent the outputs to the streets of navalists, and this generally succeeded. Blocked and taken most likely from the despair of the attempt the team’s Bulk, at least indirectly, to enter into closed to them the electoral process, undermining the state-owned election candidates.
Against this background, the dispersal of some concerts and dozens of other hastily invented bans look just as muscle-flexing.
But the obvious transition from “pronarodnyh” to “anti-people” style is still not talking about critical weakening of the system. “If authorities are unable to fill its citizens with the belly, instead it is often enough to fill them face” — so was thinking of a classic of German drama of Bertolt Brecht, who had seen in his lifetime and knew what he was talking about.
Not my favorite and not the dear people modes can exist indefinitely, if they fulfil at least the minimum management tasks, subjects do not lead to utter ruin, systematically disrupt any anti-systemic opposition, a strong enforcement apparatus and are not divided within yourself. Often missing, and partial compliance with these terms and conditions. Boris Yeltsin, for example, the last three or four years of stay in power has managed, with a zero rating and not having a solid support even at the top.
Hunger and devastation there. Organized opposition break at the first attempt to create it. Protective machine from asguardian to judges, working on a solid three. Its links, as they should be, squabbling among themselves, but not with a higher power. Vertical still simulates execution of the higher orders. This staging, but it was originally. And open objections are extremely rare. The Foundation of the government of Vladimir Putin is quite durable.
The dissatisfaction of the so-called elites certainly increasing, but to serious heat him away. But the ability to unite these groups polubanditskoe there — not to mention the fact that any collective action is repressed. A symptom of a systemic crisis would be aging in the regions of the Autonomous lords of the feudal type. Something similar is apparently happening. But very slowly. Chechnya is the exception that proves the rule.
Not see signs of split in Central management machine. Yes, it has its hawks and its doves, and more — unscrupulous lobbying clans, who fight among themselves over particular decisions. But when it comes down to it, when the leader utters a final word, they do what is ordered. Each at his post, whether systemic liberal or a seasoned strongman.
They may be in conflict or even in the quarrel only with each other but not with the leader, which is entirely dependent positions, financial situation, and personal freedom. Nothing like members of the Brezhnev Politburo, each of which had an independent status and could at times became frondeurs, we do not have.
By the same logic the lives and inner circle of billionaires, powerful people allegedly. Of course, sanctions, counter-sanctions, “incidents” and other foreign adventures can rejoice because the hit on their assets, rooted in the West, families and other open and hidden interests. But no opposition they are not able to form, because milliardera their required mode, which is free at any time to demote them in rank and file. And evacuation to the West for most of them, if possible, that the relatively modest quality — the so-called global elite will never accept people with such baggage as their own.
Summarize. Yes, in 2018, the authority of Vladimir Putin dropped significantly in the people, and partly even in machine control. But his power as the leader fell not so much because the system has closed ranks and began to defend from the masses their interests with their fists. So, she needs strong leadership even more than before.
Is that the boat really started to sway, the desired crises far more severe than those that have been in 2018. And although they are not excluded, but is not required. And I would say that the regime is quite willing to quietly rot for years, if not for the approaching 2024.
But the problem now is not soft solutions. To make Putin’s power is unchangeable by editing the laws or redrawing of the state system is theoretically easy. But this is the rare case when the mode to go racing, it will take the people’s popularity. And it is no more. The other option — the organization succession — always question the unity of the tops. Moreover, it puts him in advance, voluntarily or involuntarily drawing in crisis not only the nomenclature but also the masses.
Not so sharply 2018 has reduced the power of Putin. But at one point he had really limited his capabilities in finding solutions to problems-2024, which is becoming increasingly important.
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