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Watch the hands: as stagnation turns into flourishing

Следите за руками: как застой превращается в расцвет

Expiring 2019 is another unsuccessful year. However, he reports with a big invention will give a successful look.

Never been, but now it becomes a tradition. Each state report on how things are with the economy and people’s well-being, gives a signal to the competition of experts — who better to guess in what way this time rigged figures.

The official report on the results of the first three quarters 2019 especially impressed with all declared it a three-percent growth in real disposable income in July—September (compared with the third quarter of 2018). Almost all the people in the know regard this as a focus, but diverge in ways of explanation.

There are many versions, but I prefer the simplest. In the first two quarters of the 19th real incomes declined, in spite of convulsive change methods of counting and downright Herculean statistical efforts. Meanwhile nobody cancelled the highest order, this year the people’s welfare has grown. Therefore, for the third quarter and had to pick a number which will bring the total nine-month result in the plus, albeit with a modest. And so they did. The same increase in disposable income in January—September (+0.2 percent), for all its minimalism, missed neodoljive authoritative written. Hence the 3%. Less it was simply impossible.

However, these designs of the decorated period “may decree” Putin and national projects, published in early 2019, affect all spheres of life. And state statistics still owe my superiors, because to draw all the required numbers at once is not able.

Take, for example, the surrender of apartments and houses, i.e. the national project “Housing and the urban environment”. It prescribes in 2019 to build 88 million sq m of housing, i.e. 17% more than 2018 (75 million square meters). And what made Rosstat? In his report, the delivery of housing during the first 9 months of 2019 compared to last year grew only by 6.9%. Ingenuity was just enough to Aug start proschityvat to the total footage of “houses built by the population on the land plots intended for gardening”. Something it gave, but as you can see, clearly not enough. And if you count with the exception of seasonal factors, September — the second consecutive month of decline in housing construction. In the remaining three months of 2019 we’re either going to see some big and bold statistical maneuver, or a national project that promises to 2024, an increase in housing construction in 1,6 times, fail at the start.

However, promises so much that guiding eyes for them just don’t have time to watch.

There was, for example, setting it’s obviously fantastic — annually to ensure natural growth of the population of the country. In January—August 19th (later figures are not yet available) natural population decline in Russia amounted to 219 thousand against 169 thousand a year ago. And this despite the suspicion that such statistics are not all clean.

Quite a long time in fashion was a promise to bring forward, compared to other earnings of doctors and teachers. For the last part 2019, the average wages in education increased in nominal value by 7.5% and amounted to 77% of the level of average, but in health and social services — 7.7% (92%). In General, the “average monthly accrued wages of employees of organizations” increased in the same proportion — 7.2%. It, again, is about nominal growth, much of which is eaten up by inflation.

But the main problem is not even that faster growth of the earnings of doctors have forgotten. Strikes, scandals and collective dismissal in hospitals and medical centers remind: state payroll infusion is in any case caught by authorities. Unlike their subordinates, top managers of large state medical and educational institutions are rich or very rich. If not them, then their families very often — dollar (Euro) millionaires. But this subtlety, the state statistics did not catch.

Her job is to portray success. And clearly indicates which items.

“If we talk about the economy, it is obvious that in General we are all in the order of increasing industrial production, trade, low inflation is, we try to participate in all sorts of systems and ratings…” Dmitry Medvedev, of course, not said it. Sees the situation as his boss.

As for the “all systems and ratings”, with them easier. Their compilers provide “correct” statistics, and the position of our country in international rankings step by step improves. Not all of course, but only those that are ordered to monitor. On the other allowed to forget, and they do not like.

Harder “increase industrial production”. Because the calculation of this amount is tied to inconvenient and tedious specifics.

However, this trouble is remedied. Remember, as the good soldier Svejk portrayed sales technique older dog over a puppy? “Vackraste dog black — will look like new. To increased it power, feed him with arsenic in huge doses, and teeth clean with sandpaper, how clean rusty knives. And before how to sell it pour down his throat the slyv’yanka that the dog was a little tipsy. It you instantly become cheerful, lively, fun to bark…”

This recipe must, of course, to be understood allegorically. To industry (in reports) began “barking fun”, it is necessary for each statistical items to come up with your custom course.

Take for example mining. For the first three quarters of 2019 it appears in the mirror Rosstat very well: recorded an increase of 3.6% versus the three quarters of 2018. I will not disassemble any suspicions, there are too many, and I can only say about the latest reporting month — September. He was flawed, and the authors of the report had what is called, push all the buttons.

In annual terms (September to September) they still brought a growth of 2.5%. In particular, the production of crude oil and natural gas (our main minerals) grew, according to their own reports, only 0.6%, coal — by 2.5%, and metal ores were mined even 1.3% less than a year ago.

Can you put it to docproperty overall growth? If the mind, it is possible. There is also a position called “other minerals”. Well, there is granite, diamonds. That’s it for mining increased by 18%. The main thing — do not itemize. “Other” and all. And another point, recently appeared in the report — “provision of services in the field of mining”. He came not in vain. It shows an increase of 7.9%. Now you can fold and get the output is quite good result, although the real total mining and quarrying in September, by all indications, stagnated or declined.

Coming to the end of 2019 in the economic sense is remarkable because it is unremarkable. Another stagnant-depressive year after the previous series, such as lost development. But the reports will give him good-looking, moderately successful look.

The next task is to decorate the stagnation so that it looked in the reports as a confident and powerful flowering. It seems already working on it.

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