The Federal Reserve will face a difficult task in tightening monetary policy enough to cool inflation without causing a recession in the United States, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a research report on Sunday and seen by Bloomberg. The analyst sees the odds of economic contraction at about 35% within the next two years.
According to the report, the regulator’s main challenge is to narrow the gap in what is a plentiful supply of jobs but scarce labor supply. The Fed also needs to slow wage growth to a pace consistent with its 2% inflation goal by tightening financial conditions enough to reduce job openings without sharply raising unemployment.