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Vova, thank you for the ruble: Wait 70, prepare for 80 per dollar

Вова, спасибо за курс рубля: Ждем 70, готовимся к 80 за доллар

The end of the year for the Russian ruble is not very optimistic. The official Euro rate for the weekend and Monday, 24 December, rose on the ruble to 77,97 of the ruble, the dollar jumped to 63.75 kopecks — up to 68 rubles. The cost of the currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) calculated at official rates increased in comparison with the index on Friday at 81,59 kopecks, reaching 72,49 ruble.

Experts say that the reasons for the fall of many. This reduction in the price of oil (21 December a barrel of Brent has dropped to $ 54,30.), and the increase in the base rate reserve Federal reserve at 0.25 points, and the eventual return of the Central Bank on open market purchases of foreign currency to the Ministry of Finance, and possible sanctions against Russian banks in the new year.

At the same time, the reasons for the strengthening of the Russian national currency is practically no. The only thing that can though as-that to support the Russian currency, rising oil prices, but it is not clear whether the “black gold” to reverse the negative trend. Yet even the OPEC deal+ on the reduction of production is not bearing fruit, and the growth in US production can saturate the market.

Most analysts agree that the current exchange rate is still not so bad, but, most likely, have to wait for a decline to 70. If negative factors will converge and will lead to a perfect storm for the ruble, he can fall to 80 per dollar in 2019.

Russian ruble again entered a zone of turbulence, — says the chief analyst of “Broker Groups” Oleg Bogdanov. — Dollar quotes rose above 68 rubles. If the ruble will not stay in this area, it is very fast, the U.S. currency will reach 70. The main reason is the instability in global markets, the fall in oil prices. And after the fed’s rate hike among investors intensified concerns about a possible recession in the world economy, causing them to leave emerging markets, which include Russia. The only hope now for the ruble is the coming tax period, which traditionally supports our currency.

Similar: head of analytical Department of Grand Capital Sergei Kozlovsky.

— Amid growing bets the US Federal reserve and prospects continue to strengthen the anti-Russian sanctions, the ruble and the whole Russian stock market will remain under pressure. Not able to support the ruble even oil, despite the fact that the Russian currency remains raw. Moreover, at the end of the year traditionally is a growing demand for foreign currencies that cannot be offset even the tax period, during which exporters buy rubles on the open market.

We orientirueshsya for the continued growth of the U.S. dollar and the Euro against the ruble at the end of this and early next year. The target level for the dollar is the mark of 70 rubles, Euro will rise to 79-79,50 rubles.

Read more about what will happen to the ruble in the new year, told the “SP” analyst “Finam” Alexey Korenev.

— The ruble is traditionally strongly influenced by oil prices. Due to energy exports, we obtain a significant portion of foreign exchange earnings, and the higher the price of oil, the higher should be the ruble. But it grows not in proportion, and it is connected with the second factor, which now comes out on top. It’s the return of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market with purchases for the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules.

In spring and summer, these operations were at the level of 14-20 billion dollars a day, and it is quite a lot. Purchases ceased in mid-September due to increased volatility, as they did not give a ruble to rise even with increased oil. But when oil falls, as it is now, the ruble is reduced almost proportionally.

We already know that from the 15th of January, the Central Bank will once again return to the market. Considering the fact that oil prices have fallen substantially, and the volume of purchases will not be as large. Purchased only that part of the currency exceeds the price of misfires in 40 dollars for barrel. But if the summer oil was under $ 80, now 55. So, the scale of operations will be less pressure on the ruble, but markets still fear them.

The third factor, which puts pressure on the ruble, is the risk of a global economic slowdown and the beginning of new world crisis. Rumors are circulating for quite some time, and they are supported by a number of factors. Including such a faithful indicator of the inversion of the yield curve of U.S. bonds.

“SP”: — What is this indicator?

Over the last 70 years, the US has nine of crises, and they all started with the fact that first, there was the inversion of the yield curve, then with an interval of 6 to 24 months was crisis. Until now, this indicator does not disappoint. So, now the yield curve has indeed changed places, i.e. short bonds became more profitable than long. This is an indicator that in a year and a half, could break the global financial and economic crisis. Naturally, this puts pressure on the ruble, because in all crises, emerging economies affected than developed, and we have to seriously.

In addition, the Federal reserve continuously raises key interest rate, which inevitably leads to the fact that any financial instruments denominated in dollars become more attractive than instruments denominated in currencies of developing countries. Money flow into risky markets in the U.S., which also puts pressure on the ruble. While this factor will not go away, the pressure will continue.

There are also risk factors for the introduction of new sanctions or conversely weakening the already existing ones, which can also affect the ruble. If they imposed tough sanctions, the pressure on the ruble will be great. Part of Russian banks may be disconnected from the calculations in dollars. We have two banks are in the risk sheet on disconnected from payment systems Visa and MasterCard Promsvyazbank and VTB. For the financial system of the country is not very good and it also puts pressure on the ruble.

“SP”: — So what are the scenarios?

— We can distinguish three possible scenarios. Negative: against us launched tougher sanctions, 6-8 leading banks forbidden to work with the dollar, some banks cut off from MasterCard and Visa, the oil has continued to decline. In this case, the ruble will fall, how much will depend on oil. But we assess the likelihood of this scenario in 10-15%.

But it is unlikely and the positive scenario: the sanctions removed, the oil breaks up in the country are starting to return to foreign investors, GDP is growing, and so on. In this case, the ruble will strengthen to above 55 to the dollar.

The most realistic scenario: everything remains about the same. The probability of such development of events is 75-80%. In this case, oil prices remain at a sufficient low level or inconsequential rise, severe sanctions against Russia don’t drive, but those that are, do not supersede, the investment is not come, the GDP growth remains at 1.5%, maintained inflation at around 4%. The ruble will remain approximately the same levels as now with minor changes, which are caused by actions of the Central Bank in the market and fluctuations of oil.

The President of the “Union of businessmen and tenants of Russia”, candidate of economic Sciences Andrey Bunich believes that if the negative factors come together, the ruble may fall below the 80 per dollar.

— Oil prices have declined and are not going to rise. In addition, the fed tightens policy. The dynamics of the ruble in these conditions may not be positive. At best, this is an opportunity to stay on those levels that we have now. Considering a resumption of purchases of currency by the Central Bank since January 15, and resolution not to return to the country of foreign exchange earnings, the prospects for the ruble is even more vague.

Let me remind that in the end of the year for budget execution are repaid large sums, and in order to close all the articles required means twice the monthly norm. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance is beneficial to sell its currency at the rate more low for the ruble. And indeed, the state and state corporations remained virtually the only investors in the Russian economy, and for a variety of projects and budget execution, they benefit from the low exchange rate. The only thing that restrains them is the fact that in some areas we are critically dependent on imports, and it is really sharp drop is not in their interests.

Against the ruble can play and stagnation in emerging markets. All this will lead to negative dynamics that will either remain at current levels or head even lower. If the world market happens to shake things up, and the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will enter the market in full, it can lead to a spike in the ruble.

“SP”: — How sharp?

Is 80 rubles per dollar and more, if adverse factors, and this drop in oil prices, the worsening geopolitical situation, excessive activity of the Ministry of Finance on the market and the game of speculators, will come together.

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