“Everything is ripe for that to change”
Valery Solovey Ekaterina Shulman argued about the future of the regime and Russia
Libertarian Michael Lights held the third public debate. This time his guests were popular politicians Valery Solovey and Catherine Shulman. They debated about the future of Russia and the prevailing of the political regime. Despite the announced views, the experts were unanimous about not all — of the level of violence in the change of power and behavior of the elites to the terms and scenarios of political changes in the country.
“Evolution or revolution? What is Russia” — such was the theme of the meeting. Actually, it was distributed in the following roles: Shulman talked more about the evolution of the Nightingale — higher probability of revolution in one form or another. It was the first political debate organized by Michael Light, in which the opponents were well known under their own names: previously on “was there a genocide of the Russian people in the Soviet Union” debated Herald of the Storm and Egor Prosvirnin, socialism (the horror of the past or the future of humanity) argued Witadmin and Konstantin Syomin. A video of the next debate Lights promised to publish in a few days.
The state’s power in the weakness of society
Valery Solovey from the very beginning has set the bar high, saying that the debate for him is part of the mission to educate young people. According to him, the key choice in the matter of the future of Russia now is not done by society and government — and on the basis of its (current Russian government) background and characteristics of psychological profile. Among these features he called the shock of the fall of the emergency Committee and of spontaneous people’s dismantling of the monument to Dzerzhinsky on Lubyanka square in August 1991.
“I can tell you with absolute certainty and knowledge of the case — decided to react harshly. No power to lose, to give in, not going to give, says Nightingale. — If you know what you feel elite, what kind of choice she’ll make? Or, more precisely, what choice she will leave us with you? To Morkovkina of zagoon to wait until the charity will knock them in the heart, as written in the novel, or common sense will settle in the minds of patients? To quote the novel: it is a Kingdom of love and truth will never come”.
At the same time, the political scientist is convinced that change is not only long overdue, but inevitable. This confidence is based on several factors: “Science says that consciousness revolution happening in Russia. We see the manifestation of this revolution in the number of conflicts that we observe. Don’t you think that the air smelled of something else? I like Russian people of the old generation, I can say that all of this was experienced in 1989, on my calendar already the beginning of ‘ 89, and its end, — said Valery Solovey. For me there is a very important personal indicator: first heard from senior representatives of the elite (this was not a year ago or six months, and a month ago they said openly) — “we think about how to avoid disaster”. That saves them from disaster? Only that in Russia there is no effective opposition that would be capable to offer the country a simple, clear strategy and simple, clear ideology. Their strength is our weakness. Of cowardice to think about it. This is how it starts. Any policy starts with a moral choice.”
Repressive resource is not exhausted, but the order will not execute
Another important indicator for understanding what is happening in the country a Nightingale was named regional business, and among the weaknesses of the system — the idiocy and paranoia among the elite. Also, the analyst concluded that the regime left support: “as soon As you hear that the government is based on a large group of loyal officials is formally sound true, actually a year a lot has changed. If we say that the government relies on Resguardo and riot police, that would be a serious exaggeration — it relies on them from time to time. Until that time, the Moscow riot police (it is not very large) will not be faced with tens of thousands of demonstrators, who suddenly ceases to do a selfie and close up the ranks, and then he will not move to the side of the demonstrators, but simply lay down their shields and tell the boss to go ahead and dispersed it themselves.”
According to the analyst, as soon as the authorities confronted with a group of people willing to sacrifice for the right cause, the situation will begin to change instantly and decisively.
“She wouldn’t be able to change in 2017, but in 2020 will begin to change in this direction, because the frame looks different. All about the same — the willingness to make a moral choice in favor of freedom and dignity, and to follow it,” — said Valery Solovey.
The expert believes that from the point of view of the authorities, repressive resource is not yet exhausted: “the Government, I think, willing to go far enough to realize it and use it against society. At least in the minds of generals such ideas is, as for the heads of the colonels who work on the ground, their feeling that we are already close to exhaustion of the resource. Not that they were strategists, but they feel that things start to fall apart, and they’re very worried. So I summarize: the order to open fire is given, in this there is no doubt that this order will not be executed. And once that happens, you will see that this is the end. The government is ready to go to the end, but the end may be closer”.
He described the script and the changes that will lead to the transformation of the regime: “These changes are self-evident. The first is the resignation of the state Duma, because it is in this form, has no right to exist and every step multiplies hate (these words of the expert was greeted with thunderous applause from the audience — approx. ed.), the new elections according to the law of 2003, a return to the 1995 law on public associations, after the Duma elections, the formation of a government of national unity — this is enough to say “now there was reform, in its consequences similar political revolution.” I do not raise the question of the resignation of Putin, that everything will be decided then.”
“We need to abandon the aggressive foreign policy — help needed Nizhny Tagil, Pskov, and not the Venezuelan comrades (again, applause — approx. ed.), Russia’s participation in international peacekeeping process in the Donbass (Russia has to do it), — has continued Valery Solovey, — the gradual defederalization Russia, making decisions on waste landfills, and similar things only after the local referendum. This minimum program. If it will be implemented (and I think it will be implemented), I’m going to assume that Russia can perfectly do without revolutions.”
“The opposition is rising from its knees”
Noting that once these changes begin, many officials and propagandists declare that purposely promoted these policies in order to bring the regime to collapse, Nightingale gave a forecast of the opposition. “There is no opposition as something organizationally coherent, politically stagnirovanija, but there is a huge amount of opposition-minded people, and we see their number increasing. The political opposition a very difficult experience: she was repeatedly beaten on the head and hands, she was wrong and, frankly, scared. Only now she begins to rise from knees, — said the Nightingale. — Second, our opposition, though, and criticizes the government for its stupidity, has no intellectual superiority, otherwise she would have used it. Third: unfortunately, it is very easy for simple wiring. In this case the principle is that medieval books were advised to communicate with the devil, he will deceive you always.”
“Now things are beginning to change. Even the broken-broken people in the opposition felt in the air more. As usual in Russia, not enough of those who do. We all are ready to give advice, but the time has come to do. I think in the fall you’ll see it when you see a group of people who are willing to do something, and it will appeal to all. Because it is clear what to do, how to do, what to say, what to ask for. For the first time since 2012, and even for the first time since 1990 there was a desire for change, which was not 30 years, and are finally ready something for the sake of change to donate. All ripe for this opposition and unity finally began to appear. Russia is the perfect place to make unprecedented. Especially now,” says the analyst.
According to Nightingale, “society in Russia, more and more ready for violence”.
“I know what will happen in the Arkhangelsk region will continue if the construction waste dump Cheese. I have no reason not to believe the people involved in the protests. Hunters with a permit for the weapon and the tower of “Gazprom”, which are poorly guarded, we can get unexpected phenomenon before any revolutionary and pseudo-events, — said the analyst. Too many people in Russia want power, this rookery burned down, so she can’t burn. I hope this fire will be cathartic”.
System without a head
Ekaterina Shulman in his speeches and responses to questions rested on the terms they did not like it. Shulman challenged the definition of the elite, the government, the opposition, the West, and many theorized, constantly going beyond the allotted time. But it was also a plus: his clear voice and fast speech, it is perfectly complemented slowly vitiystvuyuschie Nightingale, was able to ground his predictions and added their own.
So, she said, what does the Council on human rights under the President, which included: not having authority, letterheads, offices and salaries, the members of the HRC, according to Shulman, can impress her close to the Kremlin and the status of regional officials and security forces, helping activists in the province. However, she stressed that though the members of the Council and meet with Putin and can talk to him, the role it plays, and the problem is thus not solved. “The more nonsense, and if you think that is fun then no. And effectiveness of this technique is greatly exaggerated, because all are wrong about the nature of our personalistic autocracy, — said Shulman. — How many people smacked his forehead in the hope that it will solve their problems, when he reached the first person — and came, and booked, and received in response to all sorts of nods and even encouraging words or a resolution to “Consider”, but then nothing happened or the opposite happened”.
According to Catherine Shulman, the Russian elite is “skewed toward foreign policy,” because “the upper floor — conditional members of the security Council really believes that everything important is happening outside.” The question of who makes key decisions, she replied: “on the one hand, ruled by a bureaucracy that operates according to instructions and does not otherwise reign. Is commissioners, curators, mountains — these managers and project managers form a system in which there is no head, but there is a referee, allowing conflicts to balance between groups was not violated”.
The decline of paternalism and the growth of civil consciousness
Shulman believes that the slogan of the new era can be considered “what, you?” and this is a consequence of changes in consciousness. “Change is a change request to power (from a request for power to request for justice), is the change in stability on the need for change, this increase in moral sensitivity to the fact that generalized the boss says and does, and, as a consequence, the decline in trust and popularity, validity as an official political figures and institutions. This combination of signs that can to lots of things to bring,” she says.
Shulman admitted that he does not like the term “populist leader”, but “people’s confidence is reduced for all and does not rise to anybody, it is waiting for, who would give”. And the demand is higher. Also, the analyst noticed that there is another noticeable phenomenon — the withering away of paternalistic consciousness: “the government confiscatory policy of squeezing people more and more excises, fees, taxes, fines, leads to the fact that people have awakened basic civic consciousness, the consciousness of the taxpayer. People are starting to realize that they contain state, and begin to ask the question, is what you get. All the protests of recent years, starting in 2014, a protest of this type, and they should lead to the main argument — no taxation without representation.”
Gave advice to the opposition and it. “People achieve their goals multi-factor campaign, which includes: organizational structure; the legal, the so-called legalists methods must be people who write petitions, appeals, complaints in court, and I understand that it’s a long painful path, which must take place; and, third, the publicity that could take the form of mass demonstrations in the fresh air. This is a necessary element, but one of them doesn’t accomplish anything. When it’s all working together, you are in a significant number of cases to achieve your objective.”
Not without a massacre
The limits of flexibility of the authorities Shulman does not see (“far”) and assumes that the transit authority would be to transfer the oligarchs of the assets and status to their heirs: “Maybe the transit authorities that is, and there is no problem-2024: the problem is not in constitutional terms, and the transition to a new state — maybe this is the transfer and not something that you can’t run for another term. Accordingly, the scope for flexibility we will see and be surprised. There is a downside — the adaptability of the [modes of]hybrids makes them extremely tenacious, so I never predict a revolution next Friday. You can’t imagine what they are ready for that, as it seems, persist. Power — not a bag and not crown to give it to him, citizens will have the pieces to bite off their rights through resistance, which has many faces”.
“The impression that the oppressive laws became more erroneous, — says Ekaterina Shulman. — Article 282 of the criminal code, in General, gutted. And she was a very serious tool, as criminal article. Its replacement by the law on contempt of Majesty, this idiotic law is probably in order to show that “not quite so all we are allowed.” Article administrative, without imprisonment, and mass it is not TA — 282-I, unfortunately, in the regions has become a weapon, not that of mass destruction, but not the point. Major new repressive laws will not be accepted. All of our repressive legislation was built as a reaction to the protests of 2011, is not the result of the Crimea — 2014 everything was ready.”
Shulman disagreed with the Nightingale in the issue of a possible increase in the willingness of the people to violence: “I don’t see it. I see a fairly low tolerance for violence on the part of the citizens and the authorities. All these conversations that the order to fire, the liver on the pavement smudge that I bought a car called “the Punisher” and gave her Regardie also talk to impress, but not that it is wolves against the sheep of civil society. They each other will be to negotiate.”
“Before you blame the citizens that they are not strong enough fight, you need to keep in mind that on the other side and willing to fight not that much. This gives us reason to believe that the script of this revolution, what’s dignity? — will isconsistent. But no massacre will not do, sorry”, — concluded the analyst.
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